Credit

China Jinmao has released FY 2023 numbers that were weak in our view, as the company reported a lower top line and reduced margins. However, the earnings decline was in line with expectations, as it reflected industry trends and the company had issued a profit warning in March 2024.

Negatively, leverage further deteriorated to a very weak level. In addition, we are concerned about whether Jinmao would be able to maintain access to domestic bond markets. This is as the company has seemingly stopped issuing domestic notes since July 2023. Instead, it issued perpetual bonds to immediate parent Sinochem HK in December. Going forward, Jinmao may have to increase its reliance on Sinochem for financing.

Yuexiu Property’s (YXP) FY 2023 results were largely stable and in line with our expectations. The company reported strong contracted sales and top-line growth, albeit the margins weakened in tandem with industry trends. Leverage was mixed, as net debt crept up slightly. Importantly, liquidity appears sound, supported by YXP’s healthy access to financing. The company remains active in land acquisitions and has a good quality land bank, with 95% of its projects in Tier 1 and 2 cities.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Oil And Gas
• Meituan

Greentown China’s FY 2023 performance was satisfactory in our view, given the above-industry sales, stable top line and acceptable (albeit reduced) gross margin. Importantly, its access to onshore financing appears healthy and liquidity is adequate. In addition, the company remains active in land acquisitions and has a good quality land bank, mostly in high-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta.

That said, leverage remained somewhat weak. Moreover, Greentown is more exposed to a prolonged industry downturn (vs. peers such as Longfor Group and China Vanke), due to its low recurring income and outsized exposure to the property development segment. This means that the company’s contracted sales and margins are likely to remain soft despite outperforming the industry. In the meantime, Greentown will likely focus on improving operating efficiency by maintaining a high sell-through rate and fast churn for its projects.

We revise our fundamental Credit Bias to “Negative” from “Stable”, and move our trade recommendation on the GRNCH 5.95 ’24s to “Buy” from “Hold” .

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• MGM China Holdings
• Pakuwon Jati

Longfor Group’s FY 2023 results were acceptable in our view. The earnings decline was in line with expectations, driven by reduced revenue from the property development segment. The gross margin for property development was decent at 11%, relative to some distressed peers with negative to low single-digit gross margins. Recurring revenue from rentals and services rose by 6%, with recurring operating profit covering 1.4x of interest expense. Net debt declined marginally, supported by slightly positive FCF generation.

Liquidity was adequate, with Unrestricted Cash/ST Debt of 1.4x. We note positively that the company has been repaying some debt well in advance of maturity, possibly using cheaper and longer tenor loans backed against its commercial properties. We believe near-term default risk for Longfor is low, albeit its financial flexibility would gradually diminish as the company pledges more assets for funding.

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The financial risk profile has strengthened further, with a large and growing net cash position coupled with robust leverage and coverage ratios. Liquidity is sound. We expect FY 2024 to be a better year for the company.

We revise our Credit Bias on Meituan to “Positive” from “Stable”, given the material increase in profitability and strong cash-flow generation following the pandemic. That said, we do not expect ratings upgrades in the near future.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Hongqiao
• Delta Dunia Makmur

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Hopson Development

Shui On Land’s (SOL) FY 2023 results were slightly weak, in our view. Positively, the company’s rental income increased moderately, supported by contributions from new commercial assets and China’s re-opening from the pandemic. Recurring operating income from rentals and property management covered 0.8x of interest expense. In addition, the gross margin remained very strong, even as revenue from the property development segment was halved on account of lower sales and deliveries.

Negatively, SOL’s net debt climbed 14% from FYE 2022, owing to lower cash collections and its acquisition of a Shanghai project in April 2023. Moreover, the company’s increased asset encumbrance would reduce its financial flexibility. Liquidity is weak, considering the thin unrestricted cash balance and substantial refinancing needs over the next 12 months. That said, the company might be able to pledge or dispose of more assets to raise cash.

Sunny Optical has released its FY 2023 numbers, which were weak but in line with expectations. Revenue declined 4.6% y-o-y to CNY 31.7 bn, due to lower shipments of handset-related products. Gross profit tumbled c. 30% to CNY 4.6 bn, with the margin shrinking to 14.5%. OCF plunged 64% to CNY 2.7 bn, while capex decreased slightly. FCF was therefore positive, albeit significantly lower. That said, the financial risk profile and liquidity remain healthy, supported by a large net cash position.

We believe the industry operating environment will stabilise. The company marked seven consecutive months of double-digit shipment volume growth in February 2024, indicating that the recovery in the smartphone market is continuing. We expect shipments to stabilise at this level, which will represent a robust increase from the FY 2023 numbers. We project positive revenue and earnings growth in FY 2024.

Xiaomi Corp’s FY 2023 results were better than expected in our view, with much-improved profitability. The balance sheet remains healthy, and liquidity is sound. We expect the company to continue performing well, driven by a projected recovery in the smartphone market, Xiaomi’s premiumisation strategy and strong demand in overseas markets. Global smartphone shipments remain weak, but may be bottoming out. We believe the company is well-positioned for future growth.

The smart EV development has drained less cash than we had expected so far. Xiaomi has been able to fund the investment using internal cash flow. Pricing for the SU7 (scheduled to be launched next week) has not been disclosed. The EV market in China is extremely competitive, with over 150 carmakers. Apple has exited the EV business due to a lack of competitive advantage, and Xiaomi may face the same issue. While it is unclear if Xiaomi will be successful in the EV business, we believe it may not be as detrimental to the credit as originally feared.

Road King’s FY 2023 results were poor, with the company’s gross margin plunging to negative 5% (FY 2022: 17%). The EBITDA and net profit margins were negative 13% and negative 30%, respectively. While Road King has continued to reduce net debt, liquidity is poor. In addition, we view negatively the company’s downbeat statement of “significant debt repayment pressure due to a lack of refinancing channels”.  

We believe it is difficult to ascertain management’s willingness to honour repayments, amid the bleak business prospects. Road King has a small and dwindling land bank that might suffice for only another 1-2 years of development. Moreover, the negative gross margin suggests that the business is no longer profitable. In our view, this increases the risk that the company may opt for a holistic restructuring of the USD notes (which account for 65% of total debt) to reduce its debt load.

We move to “Not Recommended” from “Hold” on the ROADKG 6.7 ’24s. 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Nickel Industries

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone
• MGM China Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Adani Green Energy
• Azure Power Global Ltd
• Greenko Energy Holdings

West China Cement’s (WCC) FY 2023 results were soft, but in line with expectations. The company’s profitability in Mainland China continued to weaken, albeit this was partly offset by rising sales volumes and ASP from its African operations. As a result, operating profit in Africa climbed above that for Mainland China for the first time, with the African segment accounting for 31% of total revenue and 74% of operating profit.

In our view, the key risk for investors is WCC’s seemingly relentless expansion in Africa, which is likely to further weaken its leverage. Moreover, we are concerned that further expansion in this region will fundamentally change WCC’s risk profile from a relatively stable infrastructure-led Chinese business to one that is highly exposed to event risks in frontier markets. The company’s African businesses could be exposed to higher geopolitical, regulatory and ESG risks, which are less well understood by investors.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Delta Dunia Makmur
• MGM China Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Vanke
• Nickel Industries