Financials

• The family trust of the Widjaja Family has made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
• The S$0.31 cash Offer (not declared final) for the (mainly) Indo property play is a 12.9% premium to last close; but a 73.9% discount to Sinarmas’ 1H24 NAV of S$1.19/share.
• The Offer is unconditional in all respects. Trading a spread through terms. This deserves a bump.

• SEBI’s March 27 proposal suggests standardising expiry dates: Thursdays for Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE IN) and Tuesdays for National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) .
• NSE’s previous strategic expiry days aimed at better liquidity, marginalising BSE’s Tuesday expiry, potentially impacting it’s trading volumes.
• Post-Consultation was released, NSE faces a setback, deferring its planned monday expiry shift for Nifty contracts, indirectly protecting BSE from market share erosion.

• Kolte Patil’s Q3FY25 performance update’s key highlight was acquisition of a 22 acre joint development project with topline potential worth INR 4000cr representing saleable area of 5 Million Square Feet.
• Q3FY25 pre-sales was not as robust as approval of new projects got delayed in Mumbai due to elections. However, Kolte Patil has guided to cover this up in early FY26.
• Even with the delay, Kolte Patil is projecting to close FY25 pre-sales at INR 3000cr+ (vs INR 3500cr guided), which implies that Q4FY25 pre-sales could be INR 850cr+.

• The company is primarily a “growth by acquisition” story but does have a bullish outlook based upon strong occupancy and improving metrics.
• The underwriters have reserved up to 10% of the shares in this offering through a directed share program.
• This IPO “may” be more attractive for investors that “covet yield” versus traditional IPO players.

• Sinarmas Land (SML SP) has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from the Widjaja family at S$0.31 per share, a 12.7% premium to the undisturbed price of S$0.275 (24 March).
• The offer is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges and implies a 74.0% discount to the last reported NAV per share of S$1.191 (30 June 2024).
• The offer has not been declared final. As the Widjaja family aims to privatise Sinarmas, a bump is likely to secure the required minority acceptances. 

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and two changes for ASX 200. 
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 6th June 2025.

• Inocsa offers €50 per share for GCO, representing an 18.3% premium, aiming to consolidate control and delist the company from the Spanish stock exchange if thresholds are met.
• GCO reported €623 million in FY 2024 net income, with strong solvency (242%) and leading positions in traditional and credit insurance across Spain and over 50 international markets.
• With a fair value near €50.68/share and solid fundamentals, minority shareholders receive a full but not generous offer, lacking a typical control premium often seen in similar takeovers.

• Rava has enlisted Blackstone MDs to spearhead growth in Japan, highlighting their intent to expand operations in the region.
• GreenFort and Gaw have partnered to explore land lease opportunities in Australia, with a focus on showcasing their collaboration on MTD TV.
• SC Capital, based in Singapore, has successfully closed their sixth APAC fund at $900M, demonstrating their commitment to making opportunistic investments in the region.

LSL Property Services (LSL) has published its preliminary results for the year ended December 2024. On a like-for-like basis these show strong growth in revenue and earnings, reflecting the success of the strategic transformation of the group over the past two years. This has created a simpler group structure, with structurally higher margins, better able to deliver more consistent performance across market cycles. The company expects to deliver further earnings growth in the current year.

• We recommend three smaller cap Indian banks, namely Baroda, Bandhan adding Punjab National Bank (PNB); we remove Union Bank of India from the buy list, PNB is more compelling
• Bandhan and Baroda are attractive for their value attributes relative to their returns, with newly added PNB delivering better returns and it continues to improve credit quality
• Richly valued Kotak Mahindra has the group’s highest returns post credit costs, but returns continue to trend downwards; we upgrade premium-valued ICICI to neutral as it delivers further improved returns

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Pakuwon Jati, Bharti Airtel, China Jinmao
• US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to impose 25% tariffs on imports of automobiles and auto parts from April 2 nd, saying that “what we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff for all cars that are not made in the United States”.
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she deeply regrets the US tariff decision, and will continue to seek negotiated solutions while safeguarding the bloc’s economic interests.

• Øystein Spetalen’s 50% ownership in SAGA Pure triggers a mandatory bid, with shares trading at 1.31 NOK.
• SAGA’s NAV is 1.79-1.87 NOK/share, with potential value from SDSD acquisition, contrasting with the mandatory bid price.
• SAGA’s shareholder base is mostly retail, unlike SDSD, affecting potential bid strategies and investor expectations.

• China Construction Bank H (939 HK) / China Construction Bank (601939 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:00-18:15, Beijing time.
• Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate muted price action after earnings.
• Dividend Outlook: CCB has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.4% for H shares and 4.7% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.

• Coinbase’s recent plunge might make this crypto exchange look like a tempting buy, but don’t assume it’s a bargain just yet.
• Regulatory clarity is key for wider crypto adoption,  and the new administration is likely to approve stablecoin and market structure laws later this year.
• To justify a higher valuation, the firm needs to build a more diverse and stable revenue stream that’s less dependent on transaction fees from trading.

• Corporación Financiera Alba’s delisting offer runs from today until April 24, 2025, offering €84.20 per share with a 0.60% gross spread and no intention to implement a squeeze-out.
• With shares trading at €83.70 and low daily liquidity (~€1 million), the offer presents a 6.05% annualized return for investors tendering into the deal by the estimated May 2 settlement.
• Despite a 15.6% NAV discount, arbitrage through shorting Alba’s listed assets is complex and likely only feasible for institutional investors with efficient execution and access to shorting facilities.

• ICBC (H) (1398 HK) / ICBC (A) (601398 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:30-18:30, Beijing time.
• Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate price action comparable to that of a typical trading day. 
• Dividend Outlook: ICBC has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.0% for H shares and 4.5% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.

• Back on the 10th May 2024, OCBC (OCBC SP) launched a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 11.56% in life/non-life insurer Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) not held.
• The Offer closed on the 12th July with OCBC holding 93.62%. Shares were subsequently.  suspended. And have been suspended ever since. Compulsory acquisition was not afforded. 
• The SGX has thrice granted OCBC an extension of time to restore the float.  UK-based activist Palliser is agitating for better terms. Time for a bump.

• Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)  aims to raise around US$153m in order to partly fund its full acquisition of Northpoint City South Wing.
• This will complement the company’s operations of the Northpoint City North Wing and consolidate the entire Northpoint City under its ownership.
• In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) /Bank of China (601988 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 26 March 2025, after market close.
• Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement is above the historically recorded movement.
• Implied Volatility, Options Strategies and Dividends: Discussion of implied volatility term structure and option strategies. Dividends are now semi-annual.

• CLINT anticipates revenue growth in FY2025 from MTB 6 at ITPB and a data centre in Navi Mumbai.
• CLINT’s portfolio occupancy reached 95% in December 2024, driven by asset enhancements and effective leasing activities.
• CLINT achieved a 14% year-on-year growth in NPI for FY 2024 and a 7.2% distribution yield.

• Warburg Pincus and Wide Creek JV have acquired GreenFort, a Korean logistic asset, marking their second investment in the country.
• Gaw Capital is set to discuss a joint venture with MTD TV for the development of 1,200 homes in an upcoming interview on Wednesday.
• Mitsubishi Estate has sold its stake in a Shinjuku office tower to a J-REIT for $190 million, continuing its strategic real estate transactions.

• For the year ended December 31, 2024, they wrote $437.0 million in gross written premiums, representing a compound annual growth rate of 28.4% over the last two years.
• We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.
• Zimmer Financial Services Group LLC (“ZFSG”) will continue to be a majority owner of Ategrity following this offering. 

• A REIT which had been in the pipeline since March 2022 has finally set terms for a potential April debut.
• Total self storage related revenues for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023 were approximately $219.0 million and $215.3 million, respectively.
• The company intends to pay monthly distributions. The IPO is scheduled to debut on April 2nd.

• Today, Tokyu Corp (9005 JP) announced it would increase its stake its family REIT, buying up to 48,880 units or 5.0% of units out over the next six months.
• This comes a couple of days after Hankyu Hanshin announced the same for its REIT, discussed here. Others have done so before. Tokyu has. Others will do so going forward. 
• The main reason? Squeeze the ‘share’ price higher. Get the REIT to 1.0x PNAV then stuff it with sponsor-held properties. That’s not bad. The goal is a higher price.

• The start of 2025 has been particularly turbulent for Indian equities as broader market sentiment soured due to elevated valuations, foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and global macro uncertainty. 
• However, amid this volatility, one signal stood out: insider trading activity.
• In this report, we deep-dive into insider buying and selling trends from January 1 to March 3, 2025, to uncover where company promoters and top executives are placing their bets

• Effective 05.04.2025, Expiry for Options will be moved from Thursday to Monday. Premiums still adjusting to retroactive implementation of the technical change.
• Option markets shun additional risk premia on account of U.S. trade tensions – IVs remain subdued. Vol-state transitioned to “Low & Down” & term-structure pushed further into Contango.  
• IVs were higher on the weekly open, but premiums decayed rapidly post U.S. Fed event risk. Skew has unwound its earlier compression.

• StoneCo Ltd. recently shared its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, demonstrating a period marked by robust strategic execution and notable financial outcomes, despite facing macroeconomic challenges.
• The company’s strategy is focused on three core objectives: leadership in the MSMB (micro, small, and medium businesses) market, enhanced client engagement, and scalable platform growth.
• In 2024, StoneCo’s MSMB operations saw a 15% year-over-year increase in card total payment values (TPV), although this fell short of guidance due to the rapid adoption of PIX, the Brazilian instant payment system, which continued to encroach on traditional debit and cash transactions.

• Market is seeing an uptick in CNY fixing, potentially halting the DXY bear trend temporarily
• Investors are focused on upcoming tariff event risk on April 2, leading to de-risking behavior
• Various potential scenarios for tariff implementation and FX response, with uncertainty around delivery and impact of tariffs on different sectors and countries

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Recent fall in US inflation breakevens driven by change in growth expectations and trade policy developments
• US breakevens appear somewhat cheap versus fair value framework, with near term inflation risks still skewed to the upside
• European breakevens have outperformed due to seismic shift in German fiscal policy, leading to a backup in intermediate yields on the German curve.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Rajeev Jain elevated to Vice Chairman and Executive Director; Anup Saha to take over as MD from April 2025, ensuring continuity at India’s top consumer finance company.
• Jain’s continued executive role removes leadership overhang, reinforcing confidence in Bajaj Finance’s Long-Range Strategy 2029 amid rising competitive intensity in digital lending.
• Succession clarity and strategic alignment suggest Bajaj Finance is not just preserving momentum—but doubling down on execution for its next phase of scale and innovation.

• In this edition: • Aegon | Supreme court rules in favor in tax dispute • Fugro | incident with one of its geophysical survey vessels • InPost | to take full control of Yodel?
• • Just Eat Takeaway.com | provides update on public offer

• India: Index changes for Nifty indices will take place. Multiple option expiries are scheduled, impacting stocks and indices such as the NIFTY 50 Index, and the SENSEX Index.
• Asia-Pacific: Key events include Hong Kong’s earnings week and Tokyo CPI release, while Australia reports its Monthly CPI indicator.
• USA: Significant releases include the final Q4 2024 GDP figures and the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

• Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.
• Nifty posts its largest weekly gain in nine months however, the rally resembles past counter-trend moves since the September 2024 peak.
• We outline a tactical hedge that aligns with recent price action, volatility shifts, and heightened global political risks

• A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
• Kospi extended its gains after a strong start, maintaining its position as a relative outperformer.
• We examine Kospi’s recent outperformance against comparable indices as well as SP500.

• A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
• The Bank of Japan held rates steady, with little reaction from the Nikkei or USD/JPY amid lower option volumes.
• Implied volatility declined throughout the week, pressured by muted price action and low historic volatility.

• Weekly recap of key option metrics across single stocks, including most active names and strikes, largest volume increases, biggest movers, and key earnings reports.
• Post-Earnings performance of Tencent, Xiaomi, Anta, and China Tower analyzed.
• Financials take center stage with several major earnings releases on deck this week.

• The Hong Kong earnings season enters its final week with at least 17 Hang Seng Index companies reporting their 2024 results and announcing dividends.
• The proportion of companies reporting in the coming week and the week after is significant at an index level, with notable weightings in the HSI, HSCEI, and HS TECH indices.
• Opportunities to profit from price movement around earnings are manifold and include event-focused trading, statistical arbitrage, hedging, and capitalizing on changes in dividends and implied volatility.

• LICHF reported PAT growth of 23% YoY in Q3FY25 led by benign credit cost. Credit cost was negative (-44cr) in Q3FY25 vs INR 435cr (0.2%+ of AUM) in Q3FY24.
• Stage 1 assets improved to 93.25% of AUM vs 93.09% QoQ. NIM continues to be stable at around 2.7%, similar to last quarter, making the earnings predictable now. 
• Led by low credit cost, LICHF is on track to achieve FY25 PAT as per our estimate of INR 5400cr+. This implies LICHF is currently trading at below 6x P/E.

• Buy Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP) on any weakness. There will be strength ahead.
• With ENN Energy (2688 HK) suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code, a third party Offer, as opposed to ENN Group, seems more likely. 
• Be long Idemitsu (5019 JP) vs ENEOS for the next several weeks. Light and easy drift trade based on pressure increasing and pressure ending before new news in May.

• 3D Investment Partners launched a Partial Tender Offer to buy a 10+% stake in Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). The REIT finally responded with a “Neutral” stance. 
• But they also upgraded earnings forecasts, bought a building, and announced the Sponsor would buy units in the market over the next year. It’s big. 
• And that creates flows, which then engender other reactive flows, and cascading flows, and because the sector isn’t rich, there may be a tailwind.

• Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
• If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
• The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.

• Beike reported C4Q24 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 8.4%/7.4%, non-GAAP OP miss our estimate/consensus by 37.5%/21.6%, due to front-loading expansion cost.
• We expect Beike to take 2-3ppt of market share in a rebalancing property market in 2025. 
• We keep the stock as BUY and keep TP at US$25.

• Today’s update clarifies which brokers are fully linked to NSDS, giving them an edge in short-selling speed and flexibility, while others face more execution constraints.
• This leads to a clear execution risk gap, requiring traders to factor in trade efficiency differences based on their broker.
• With lower short-selling restriction triggers, liquidity and short-covering dynamics will shift, requiring traders to reassess market impact and adjust strategies accordingly.

• Bain Capital is acquiring a 41.7–46% stake in Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN), marking a shift from a promoter-led to a professionally managed NBFC.
• This deal injects INR 4,385 crore in fresh capital, strengthens governance, and positions Manappuram for growth beyond gold loans into microfinance, vehicle loans, and housing finance.
• While execution risks remain, Bain’s track record in financial services suggests a long-term transformation, potentially closing Manappuram’s valuation gap with Muthoot Finance.

• Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
• The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
• Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

• Bajaj Finance Ltd (“BAF”) reported a strong Q3FY25 led by good volume growth and AUM growth. It saw highest ever new loans at 12.06mm. AUM growth was INR 24119cr. 
• Despite elevated credit costs for peers, BAF has been relatively insulated and reported steady asset quality. ROA and Opex were also steady at around 4.5% and 33%, respectively.
• In line with BAF’s long-range strategy, BAF is increasingly adopting AI to improve productivity. As part of this, BAF unveiled a BFL 3.0 FINAI company.

• Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
• Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
• The US’s global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.

• The largest REIT in Asia, with enough liquidity for most funds. Has a great set of neighborhood malls across Hong Kong enjoying recurring income from food & beverage, restaurants, etc
• Suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic but DPU has started growing again. Rights issue a misstep but the leverage is now acceptable. New Blackrock CIO bodes well for M&A. 
• REIT trades at 7% yield vs 4% historically. Essentially an interest rate bet. Will probably be included in the Stock Connect program soon, expect an announcement on 19 April. 

• Digital Realty partners with Bersama to enter Indonesia’s data center market, expanding their global presence in the industry.
• Leading firms KKR, Gaw, and Alyssa highlight favorable macroeconomic factors driving growth in Japan’s multi-family sector on MTD TV.
• Singapore’s largest REIT, CapitaLand, undergoes a leadership reshuffle with the appointment of a new CEO to drive strategic initiatives.

• EAAA India Alternatives Ltd (1619210D IN)  is planning to raise about US$177m through its upcoming India IPO.
• It is one of the leading alternatives platforms in India, with AUM of INR 572.62bn (US$6.63bn), as of 9M24, amassing 15 years of experience.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• H&T’s 2024 results were reassuringly in line with expectations, delivering 10% PBT growth, with the pledge book capital value up 26%, retail sales up 27% and forex profits up 11%.
• The outlook remains positive, with i) strong demand in the core pawnbroking business where H&T is taking share and may have increasing acquisition opportunities, ii) consumer trends favouring its multi-channel, value-for-money, new and used product retail offering, iii) an expanding range of currencies helping forex growth, iv) a continued high gold price, and v) growth in store numbers helping all product lines.
• Economies of increasing scale will help mitigate cost growth that is outside management control.