Category

Growth Ideas

Brief Growth Ideas: Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry
  2. ECM Weekly (27 April 2019) – Luckin, Duiba, Leong Hup, ARA US Hosp, Douyu, So-Young, Yunji
  3. BCH: Private Chain Hospital with High Sustainable Growth

1. Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry

Five interesting news flow/development during this period:

  • New regulations proposals. The BOT recently discussed measures to rein in overly favorable leasing promotions, while the NBTC backs down from plans to impose surcharge on Facebook and LINE.
  • Biggest deal in advertising. Though only a minority stake, VGI’s investment in Plan B is arguably the largest one done in the media sector in years. The web of media enmeshed is arguably one of the largest outside broadcast media now.
  • Breadtalk agrees to buy 15% of Thai-listed NPPG, a holding company for packaging and restaurant chains. A relatively small deal, but one that ties NPPG indirectly to the much bigger Thai giant Minor.
  • Makro expands with an impressive Bt8.5bn. The budget includes potentially 10 new stores with two outside Thailand. An interesting spin for the CP All subsidiary essentially written off as ‘ex-growth’ by most of the Street.
  • The new Duty Free wars. Four groups, namely incumbent King Power, Central, Minor, and The Mall, join the fray to dominate Thailand’s Duty Free business for the next decade. We hope Minor wins, but most likely, it’s going to be Central.

2. ECM Weekly (27 April 2019) – Luckin, Duiba, Leong Hup, ARA US Hosp, Douyu, So-Young, Yunji

2019 total deals 2019 accuracy rate  chartbuilder

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Placements took a back seat this week and IPO activity came roaring back to life.

Starting in the US, the two highly anticipated IPOs, Luckin Coffee (LK US) and Douyu (DOYU US), filed their prospectus with the SEC. We have already shared our early thoughts on the companies. Look out for more insights as we crunch through the numbers in the following weeks leading up to its IPO launch.

Yunji Inc. (YJ US) and So-Young (SY US) opened their IPOs for bookbuild. We covered their valuation in:

Back in Hong Kong, Shenwan Hongyuan Group (H) (6806 HK) plunged 12% on its debut on Friday. As per Ke Yan, CFA, FRM‘s insight, risk-reward after the plunge implies that Shenwan is trading at a deeper discount to its A-share than it deserves. Considering that there had already been a big potion of adjusted free-float traded, stabilization can easily support the share price from here back to its IPO price.

Duiba Group (1753 HK) also opened its IPO for bookbuild this week. We heard that books are covered as of Friday. Valuation leaned on the expensive side as bankers probably took advantage of the strong rally in advertising peers to offer it at a higher valuation. We think that the IPO will only offer upside from the bottom end of the price range.

Activity is also picking up for Singapore and Malaysia after a long lull. ARA US Hospitality Trust (HOTEL SP) and Eagle Hospitality REIT filed their prospectus with MAS while ARA US Hospitality’s IPO is already taking orders for bookbuild. Sumeet Singh penned his thoughts on the REIT and its valuation in:

Malaysia’s Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) finally launched its IPO after initial delays. 

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 64% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Ascentage Pharma (Hong Kong, re-filed)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

Analysis on Upcoming IPO

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
CIMC VehCIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
ClarityClarity Medical (清晰医疗) IPO: Proxy to HK SMILE Surgery Demand
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO – The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Earnings and Segment Analysis 

ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO- First Stab at Valuation

Frontage

Frontage (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect

Frontage

Frontage (方达控股) IPO: Updates from 2018 Numbers

Haitong

Haitong UniTrust Intl Leasing Pre-IPO – Shape Shifting

Hujiang Edu

Hujiang Education (沪江教育) Pre-IPO – Spending More than It Earns

Hut Chi-Med

Hutchison-China Meditech (和黄医药) H-Share Listing: MNC Partnerships Endorsed Its R&D Capabilities

Jinxin

Jinxin Fertility (锦欣生殖) Pre-IPO: Strong Foothold in Sichuan but Weak Sentiment for Sector

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
MabPharmMabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
MabPharmMabPharm (迈博医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio 

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
South Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) – Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) – Valuation Analysis
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) – An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
MazagonMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take – Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO – Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO – Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food
The U.S
DouyuDouyu (斗鱼直播) IPO: Leader At a Cost
LuckinLuckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡) Early Thoughts – Caffeine Rush
LuckinLuckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡) App Walk-Through and Channel Checks

3. BCH: Private Chain Hospital with High Sustainable Growth

Capture2

We initiate coverage on BCH with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt21, which is derived from a DCF methodology (WACC 6.8% and terminal growth 0%), implying 43.8xPE’19E, a a 19% premium to the Thai Health Care sector.

The story:

  • Hospital with the most number of Social Security registered against an ageing society theme.
  • Market overreacted to earnings disappointment in 4Q18.
  • New strategies attract foreign patients, boosting flagship hospital
  • IVF Lab to create new growth opportunities
  • Adding three hospitals in areas of large potential demand.

Risks:

 Lack of medical personnel & changes in social security policy

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Growth Ideas: Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry
  2. ECM Weekly (27 April 2019) – Luckin, Duiba, Leong Hup, ARA US Hosp, Douyu, So-Young, Yunji
  3. BCH: Private Chain Hospital with High Sustainable Growth
  4. 6857 🇯🇵 Advantest • Scoring & Valuation Update

1. Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry

Five interesting news flow/development during this period:

  • New regulations proposals. The BOT recently discussed measures to rein in overly favorable leasing promotions, while the NBTC backs down from plans to impose surcharge on Facebook and LINE.
  • Biggest deal in advertising. Though only a minority stake, VGI’s investment in Plan B is arguably the largest one done in the media sector in years. The web of media enmeshed is arguably one of the largest outside broadcast media now.
  • Breadtalk agrees to buy 15% of Thai-listed NPPG, a holding company for packaging and restaurant chains. A relatively small deal, but one that ties NPPG indirectly to the much bigger Thai giant Minor.
  • Makro expands with an impressive Bt8.5bn. The budget includes potentially 10 new stores with two outside Thailand. An interesting spin for the CP All subsidiary essentially written off as ‘ex-growth’ by most of the Street.
  • The new Duty Free wars. Four groups, namely incumbent King Power, Central, Minor, and The Mall, join the fray to dominate Thailand’s Duty Free business for the next decade. We hope Minor wins, but most likely, it’s going to be Central.

2. ECM Weekly (27 April 2019) – Luckin, Duiba, Leong Hup, ARA US Hosp, Douyu, So-Young, Yunji

2019 total deals 2019 accuracy rate  chartbuilder

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Placements took a back seat this week and IPO activity came roaring back to life.

Starting in the US, the two highly anticipated IPOs, Luckin Coffee (LK US) and Douyu (DOYU US), filed their prospectus with the SEC. We have already shared our early thoughts on the companies. Look out for more insights as we crunch through the numbers in the following weeks leading up to its IPO launch.

Yunji Inc. (YJ US) and So-Young (SY US) opened their IPOs for bookbuild. We covered their valuation in:

Back in Hong Kong, Shenwan Hongyuan Group (H) (6806 HK) plunged 12% on its debut on Friday. As per Ke Yan, CFA, FRM‘s insight, risk-reward after the plunge implies that Shenwan is trading at a deeper discount to its A-share than it deserves. Considering that there had already been a big potion of adjusted free-float traded, stabilization can easily support the share price from here back to its IPO price.

Duiba Group (1753 HK) also opened its IPO for bookbuild this week. We heard that books are covered as of Friday. Valuation leaned on the expensive side as bankers probably took advantage of the strong rally in advertising peers to offer it at a higher valuation. We think that the IPO will only offer upside from the bottom end of the price range.

Activity is also picking up for Singapore and Malaysia after a long lull. ARA US Hospitality Trust (HOTEL SP) and Eagle Hospitality REIT filed their prospectus with MAS while ARA US Hospitality’s IPO is already taking orders for bookbuild. Sumeet Singh penned his thoughts on the REIT and its valuation in:

Malaysia’s Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) finally launched its IPO after initial delays. 

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 64% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Ascentage Pharma (Hong Kong, re-filed)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

Analysis on Upcoming IPO

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
CIMC VehCIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
ClarityClarity Medical (清晰医疗) IPO: Proxy to HK SMILE Surgery Demand
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO – The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Earnings and Segment Analysis 

ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO- First Stab at Valuation

Frontage

Frontage (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect

Frontage

Frontage (方达控股) IPO: Updates from 2018 Numbers

Haitong

Haitong UniTrust Intl Leasing Pre-IPO – Shape Shifting

Hujiang Edu

Hujiang Education (沪江教育) Pre-IPO – Spending More than It Earns

Hut Chi-Med

Hutchison-China Meditech (和黄医药) H-Share Listing: MNC Partnerships Endorsed Its R&D Capabilities

Jinxin

Jinxin Fertility (锦欣生殖) Pre-IPO: Strong Foothold in Sichuan but Weak Sentiment for Sector

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
MabPharmMabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
MabPharmMabPharm (迈博医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio 

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
South Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) – Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) – Valuation Analysis
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) – An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
MazagonMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take – Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO – Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO – Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food
The U.S
DouyuDouyu (斗鱼直播) IPO: Leader At a Cost
LuckinLuckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡) Early Thoughts – Caffeine Rush
LuckinLuckin Coffee (瑞幸咖啡) App Walk-Through and Channel Checks

3. BCH: Private Chain Hospital with High Sustainable Growth

Capture2

We initiate coverage on BCH with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt21, which is derived from a DCF methodology (WACC 6.8% and terminal growth 0%), implying 43.8xPE’19E, a a 19% premium to the Thai Health Care sector.

The story:

  • Hospital with the most number of Social Security registered against an ageing society theme.
  • Market overreacted to earnings disappointment in 4Q18.
  • New strategies attract foreign patients, boosting flagship hospital
  • IVF Lab to create new growth opportunities
  • Adding three hospitals in areas of large potential demand.

Risks:

 Lack of medical personnel & changes in social security policy

4. 6857 🇯🇵 Advantest • Scoring & Valuation Update

2019 04 26 17 30 57

Source: Japan Analytics

ADVANTEST (6857 JP) reported FY2019 on 25th April and released initial forecasts for the current year which suggest that Operating Income will decline by 54% on a 19% decline in sales and a 23% decline in new orders. For details, please see LightStream Research‘s Insight here. This Insight will review the company’s forecasting track record, update our Scoring Charts and, based on our valuation methodology, suggest the current downside risk or short ‘potential’ after today’s near 9% decline.  We also highlight the 11% increase in net shares outstanding in the last five quarters.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Growth Ideas: Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Underlying Optimist – On the Ground in J-Town and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Underlying Optimist – On the Ground in J-Town
  2. ECM Weekly (25 May 2019) – ESR Cayman, Hansoh Pharma, Tai Hing, China East Edu, Haitong UniTrust
  3. Meten International Edu (美联国际教育) Early Thoughts – Unclear Strategies
  4. GEM Positioning Monthly:  Indonesian Financials, Food & Beverages, Lenovo Sentiment Reversal
  5. Rakuten: Update on the Mobile Business Generally Positive

1. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) – Underlying Optimist – On the Ground in J-Town

Screenshot%202019 05 25%20at%2010.46.51%20am

A conversation with Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) management revealed a relatively positive outlook after a strong start to the year, with politics and security being its red flag to this view.

The bank achieved +13% YoY loan growth in 1Q19 mainly driven by corporate lending, which grew by 15.8% and out of this investment-driven loans grew more quickly. 

Consumer lending was altogether more sluggish with +7.9% over the quarter, with mortgage loans outperforming with +11% growth, with some very attractive promotional rates beings offered, and motorcycle loans seeing a notable slowdown. 

Funding wise, the bank continues to shine with a CASA ratio of 76.8% and continues to grow in its CASA of over +7% in 1Q19, despite an overall tighter liquidity environment. This was reflected in an improvement in the banks NIM, which increased to 6.19% in 1Q18. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) continues to innovate on its online offering, with a number of new initiatives. This helps the bank maintain its dominance in transactional banking in Indonesia.

BCA remains the best quality bank in Indonesia, in terms of service and management, which is conservative yet dynamic, with a keen focus on returns but always with the appropriate level of risk exposure in mind. It has the lowest cost of funds amongst the major banks, given its dominance in transactional banking, which means it has a high CASA ratio.  The bank has one of the lowest NPL ratios in the sector at 1.5% and with a provision/NPL coverage of 171%. According to Capital IQ Consensus, it trades on 21.0x FY20E PER and 18.5x FY21E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +12.4% and +13.4% for FY20E and FY21E respectively. It trades on a PBV of 3.5x FY20E with forecast ROE of 18% and ROA of 3.4%. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is a core holding in Indonesia and should be bought on any major correction in the overall market. 

2. ECM Weekly (25 May 2019) – ESR Cayman, Hansoh Pharma, Tai Hing, China East Edu, Haitong UniTrust

Upcoming

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

This will be the third week in a row we are saying: there are more IPOs coming in Hong Kong!Momentum seems to be holding up as we head into the end of Q2. First off, there will be 4 IPOs starting to trade throughout next week. Mulsanne Group Holding Ltd (1817 HK) will debut first on Monday.

This would be interesting to watch because the IPO utilized the new pricing mechanism in Hong Kong to price its IPO below the bottom end of its indicated price range rather than withdraw and refile. This mechanism reminds us of the pricing flexibility of US IPOs wherein companies could price below its indicative price range to ensure that it performs well on its debut despite poor demand during bookbuild. Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868 HK), Frontage Holdings (1521 HK), and MabPharm (2181 HK) will trade on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday respectively.

For upcoming bookbuilds, Tai Hing (1719303D HK) and China Tobacco International (GHALPZ CH) have filed their PHIP this week and will be likely be opening their books next week. We are also hearing that CSSC Hong Kong Shipping Co Ltd (0931049D CH) and China East Education (EASTEDU HK) will open books on Monday while Hansoh Pharmaceutical (HANSOH HK) will be on Tuesday.

IPO activity in other countries have been fairly muted. Eagle Hospitality Trust (EAGLEHT SP)  finally started trading in Singapore. Its share price closed 6% down as the IPO was undersubscribed. We will leave the updates on the IPO to Sumeet Singh on Monday.

In the U.S, GSX Techedu (GSX US) will launch its book next week while Meten (MEDU US) which just filed its US$100m IPO with the SEC will be premarketing next week.

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.9% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings

  • Sinic Holdings (Hong Kong, >US$100m)
  • Meten International Edu (the U.S, US$100m)

Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.

Source: Aequitas Research, Smartkarma

News on Upcoming IPOs

Analysis on Upcoming IPOs

NameInsight
Hong Kong
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
AB InbevAb InBev Asia Pre-IPO – On Its Way to Potentially Being the Biggest HK IPO This Year
AB Inbev

Budweiser Brewing APAC Pre-IPO – It Will Be a US$5bn+ Raise Owing to Its Clean Balance Sheet

AscentageAscentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
Ant FinancialAnt Financial IPO Early Thought: Understand Fintech Empire, Growth & Risk Factors
CIMC VehCIMC Vehicle (中集车辆): Market Leader of Semi-Trailers but Little Growth Ahead
ClarityClarity Medical (清晰医疗) IPO: Proxy to HK SMILE Surgery Demand
ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

East EduChina East Education (中国东方教育) Pre-IPO – The Company Known for Its Culinary School
China TobacChina Tobacco International (IPO): The Monopolist Will Not Recover
China TobacChina Tobacco Intl (HK) IPO: Proxy For the Chinese Cigarette Consumption
CSSCCSSC (HK) Shipping IPO: A Cyclical Business Masked as an Income Stock
ESRESR Cayman Pre-IPO – A Giant in the Making
ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Earnings and Segment Analysis 

ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO- First Stab at Valuation

ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Updates from PHIP – Growth Remains on Track 

ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Updated Valuation and Key Risks

ESR

ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison Quick Take – Bigger than Some, Much Smaller than Others 

Hansoh

Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: New Numbers, Pre-IPO Dividend and Boyu Investment (Part 3)

Hansoh

Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

Hansoh

Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Competitive Landscape of HS-10296

Helenbergh

Helenbergh (海伦堡) Early Thoughts – The Usual Red Flag – Related Party Transactions

Hut Chi-Med

Hutchison-China Med (和黄医药) H-Share Listing: MNC Partnerships Endorsed Its R&D Capabilities

Jinxin

Jinxin Fertility (锦欣生殖) Pre-IPO: Strong Foothold in Sichuan but Weak Sentiment for Sector

MicuRxMicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
MabPharmMabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
MabPharmMabPharm (迈博医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
SH Henlius

Shanghai Henlius (复宏汉霖) IPO: Not an Impressive Biosimilar Portfolio 

TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Performing Better than Qeeka but Growing Much Slower, US$1bn a Stretch
TubatuTubatu Group Pre-IPO – Online -> Online + Offline -> Online -> ?
South Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 1) – Highly Profitable Operator of Public Golf Courses in Korea
KMH ShillaKMH Shilla Leisure IPO Preview (Part 2) – Valuation Analysis
Plakor

Plakor IPO Preview (Part 1)

ZinusZinus IPO Preview (Part 1) – An Amazing Comeback Story (#1 Mattress Brand on Amazon)
India
Aakash EduAakash Education Pre-IPO – Fast Growth in an Attractive Sector
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotels

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some
MazagonMazagon Dock IPO Preview: A Monopoly Submarine Yard in India with Captive Navy Spending
Mrs. BectorMrs. Bectors Food Specialities Pre-IPO Quick Take – Sales for Its Main Segment Have Been Sta

Lodha

Lodha Developers Pre-IPO – Second Time Lucky but Not Really that Much Affordable
LodhaLodha Developers IPO: Presence in Affordable Segment Saves Lodha the Blushes in a Sluggish Mkt
IndiaMartIndiaMART Pre-IPO – Getting and Retaining Subscribers Seems to Be Difficult
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food
The U.S
DouyuDouyu (斗鱼直播) IPO: Leader At a Cost
DouyuDouyu (斗鱼直播) IPO: Comparison with Huya (Part 2)
GSXGSX Techedu (跟谁学) IPO Early Thoughts – Successful Pivot Away from Marketplace Model
MetenMeten International Edu (美联国际教育) Early Thoughts – Unclear Strategies

3. Meten International Edu (美联国际教育) Early Thoughts – Unclear Strategies

Overall financial performance rmbm revenue gross profit patmi chartbuilder

Meten (MEDU US) recently filed for a US listing and is looking to raise US$100m.

Meten is a general English language training (ELT) service provider in China. It has grown its revenue at a decent 25.7% CAGR between FY2016 to FY2018 while margins made modest improvements.

However, its 1Q 2019 results signals near-term weakness across its major segments as the company seemed to be making strategic changes to its operations. The F-1 filing indicated that existing shareholders will sell in the IPO, suggesting their intention to exit or, at least, partially monetize their stake which could potentially affect sentiment going into the IPO.

4. GEM Positioning Monthly:  Indonesian Financials, Food & Beverages, Lenovo Sentiment Reversal

Highlights9

Copley Fund Research analyse the holdings of long-only equity funds.  This analysis is taken from our GEM research product, covering 189 global emerging market funds with a combined AUM of $350bn. 

In this month’s Positioning Monthly, we highlight an increasing exposure towards Indonesian Financial stocks, with Bank Rakyat Indonesia Perser (BBRI IJ) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) the key overweight positions.  We analyse holdings in the food and beverages industry groups as ownership reaches peak levels in both.  Finally, we explore the sharp reversal in Lenovo (992 HK) sentiment as more and more GEM funds buy into the stock.

5. Rakuten: Update on the Mobile Business Generally Positive

Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) hosted a call with CTO Tareq Amin to update analysts and investors on recent progress. The company says cell site acquisition is moving ahead quickly and it an end-October mobile launch remains the target. As discussed previously, the next major milestone is the start of 1 July beta-testing so there was little that could be added this week although management did again run through key success factors like cost and operational efficiency from its cloud-based integrated network architecture. Mr. Amin teased a possible game-changing announcement next week, which is likely to come from the vendor side and we suspect has to do with 5G turnkey solutions. Coming out of quarterly results for all companies, the outlook has not meaningfully changed with incumbents confident that pricing changes are sufficient even with Rakuten promising disruption from a unique network and installed base of eCommerce/fintech users. 

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Brief Growth Ideas: Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A/H Premium and Liquidity Suggest a Quick Trade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A/H Premium and Liquidity Suggest a Quick Trade

1. Shenwan Hongyuan (申万宏源) A+H: A/H Premium and Liquidity Suggest a Quick Trade

First%20day%20trading

Shenwan Hongyuan Group (H) (218 HK) raised USD 1.1 billion at HKD 3.63/share at the low end of price guidance. We have previously covered the IPO in:

In this insight, we will update on the deal dynamics, valuation and provide our thoughts on a post-IPO trade.

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Brief Growth Ideas: Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge

1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge

8350 michinoku 2019 0424%20peer%20valuations

With just three weeks to go before the formal announcement of their FY3/2019 results, it is high time that some of the smaller Japanese regional banks started owning up to the fact that they have no hope of making their full-year earnings guidance.  First in the line for confession is Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) which on Wednesday of this week slashed its full-year earnings guidance after losing some ¥1.25 billion (US$11.2 million) on the burgeoning costs of maintaining a synthetic hedge against its Japanese government portfolio.  These hedging losses come on top of rapidly rising credit costs.  Luckily, few foreign investors own the stock of this small, struggling bank, although there are some.  We expect further announcements of full-year earnings downgrades from other Japanese regional banks over the next fortnight or so; market reaction to such announcements may be severe.  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

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Brief Growth Ideas: Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge
  2. Advantest: FY03/19 Full-Year Results Beat Consensus, 4QFY03/19 Declines Due to Memory Downturn

1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge

8350 michinoku 2019 0424%20peer%20valuations

With just three weeks to go before the formal announcement of their FY3/2019 results, it is high time that some of the smaller Japanese regional banks started owning up to the fact that they have no hope of making their full-year earnings guidance.  First in the line for confession is Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) which on Wednesday of this week slashed its full-year earnings guidance after losing some ¥1.25 billion (US$11.2 million) on the burgeoning costs of maintaining a synthetic hedge against its Japanese government portfolio.  These hedging losses come on top of rapidly rising credit costs.  Luckily, few foreign investors own the stock of this small, struggling bank, although there are some.  We expect further announcements of full-year earnings downgrades from other Japanese regional banks over the next fortnight or so; market reaction to such announcements may be severe.  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

2. Advantest: FY03/19 Full-Year Results Beat Consensus, 4QFY03/19 Declines Due to Memory Downturn

Advantest%20earnings

  • Advantest (6857 JP) reported its 4QFY03/19 and Full-year FY03/19 results yesterday (25th of April). The company reported 36.3% YoY growth in revenue for the full-year while its operating profit more than doubled to JPY64.7bn during the year mainly due to strong performance witnessed during the first three quarters of the year.
  • On a quarterly basis, the 4QFY03/19 numbers were below our expectations. Both the revenue and the operating profit witnessed YoY declines during the quarter, with revenue declining by 5.7% YoY while operating profit declined by a significant 26.6% YoY driven by the slowdown in the global semiconductor market.
  • Furthermore, the management expects a decline in revenue and operating profit for full-year FY03/20 due to contraction in the global semiconductor tester market. That being said, the company is expecting the market to return to its growth trajectory again during CY2020 driven by the expansion of commercial 5G communication services.
  • We believe Advantest is still overvalued at its current price of JPY3,445 per share. As the memory market downturn has just started impacting Advantest, we feel the company share price will decline further with the earnings outlook deteriorating.

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Brief Growth Ideas: Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge
  2. Advantest: FY03/19 Full-Year Results Beat Consensus, 4QFY03/19 Declines Due to Memory Downturn
  3. Luckin Coffee IPO: Wake up and Smell the Coffee

1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge

8350 michinoku 2019 0424%20peer%20valuations

With just three weeks to go before the formal announcement of their FY3/2019 results, it is high time that some of the smaller Japanese regional banks started owning up to the fact that they have no hope of making their full-year earnings guidance.  First in the line for confession is Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) which on Wednesday of this week slashed its full-year earnings guidance after losing some ¥1.25 billion (US$11.2 million) on the burgeoning costs of maintaining a synthetic hedge against its Japanese government portfolio.  These hedging losses come on top of rapidly rising credit costs.  Luckily, few foreign investors own the stock of this small, struggling bank, although there are some.  We expect further announcements of full-year earnings downgrades from other Japanese regional banks over the next fortnight or so; market reaction to such announcements may be severe.  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

2. Advantest: FY03/19 Full-Year Results Beat Consensus, 4QFY03/19 Declines Due to Memory Downturn

Advantest%20earnings

  • Advantest (6857 JP) reported its 4QFY03/19 and Full-year FY03/19 results yesterday (25th of April). The company reported 36.3% YoY growth in revenue for the full-year while its operating profit more than doubled to JPY64.7bn during the year mainly due to strong performance witnessed during the first three quarters of the year.
  • On a quarterly basis, the 4QFY03/19 numbers were below our expectations. Both the revenue and the operating profit witnessed YoY declines during the quarter, with revenue declining by 5.7% YoY while operating profit declined by a significant 26.6% YoY driven by the slowdown in the global semiconductor market.
  • Furthermore, the management expects a decline in revenue and operating profit for full-year FY03/20 due to contraction in the global semiconductor tester market. That being said, the company is expecting the market to return to its growth trajectory again during CY2020 driven by the expansion of commercial 5G communication services.
  • We believe Advantest is still overvalued at its current price of JPY3,445 per share. As the memory market downturn has just started impacting Advantest, we feel the company share price will decline further with the earnings outlook deteriorating.

3. Luckin Coffee IPO: Wake up and Smell the Coffee

Luckin%20response

Luckin Coffee (LK US), a high growth coffee chain in China, has filed for an IPO to raise 800mn USD (Source: Reuters).  We note the following points. 

Intro to Luckin IPO

Slowing exit rate and high cash burn amidst financials in our view

A great growth market beset by tough competition

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Brief Growth Ideas: Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge
  2. Advantest: FY03/19 Full-Year Results Beat Consensus, 4QFY03/19 Declines Due to Memory Downturn
  3. Luckin Coffee IPO: Wake up and Smell the Coffee
  4. 6954 🇯🇵 Fanuc • Timing the Cycle

1. Michinoku Bank  (8350 JP):  Clipped by a Synthetic Hedge

8350 michinoku 2019 0424%20peer%20valuations

With just three weeks to go before the formal announcement of their FY3/2019 results, it is high time that some of the smaller Japanese regional banks started owning up to the fact that they have no hope of making their full-year earnings guidance.  First in the line for confession is Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) which on Wednesday of this week slashed its full-year earnings guidance after losing some ¥1.25 billion (US$11.2 million) on the burgeoning costs of maintaining a synthetic hedge against its Japanese government portfolio.  These hedging losses come on top of rapidly rising credit costs.  Luckily, few foreign investors own the stock of this small, struggling bank, although there are some.  We expect further announcements of full-year earnings downgrades from other Japanese regional banks over the next fortnight or so; market reaction to such announcements may be severe.  Caveat emptor!  (May the buyer beware!)

2. Advantest: FY03/19 Full-Year Results Beat Consensus, 4QFY03/19 Declines Due to Memory Downturn

Advantest%20earnings

  • Advantest (6857 JP) reported its 4QFY03/19 and Full-year FY03/19 results yesterday (25th of April). The company reported 36.3% YoY growth in revenue for the full-year while its operating profit more than doubled to JPY64.7bn during the year mainly due to strong performance witnessed during the first three quarters of the year.
  • On a quarterly basis, the 4QFY03/19 numbers were below our expectations. Both the revenue and the operating profit witnessed YoY declines during the quarter, with revenue declining by 5.7% YoY while operating profit declined by a significant 26.6% YoY driven by the slowdown in the global semiconductor market.
  • Furthermore, the management expects a decline in revenue and operating profit for full-year FY03/20 due to contraction in the global semiconductor tester market. That being said, the company is expecting the market to return to its growth trajectory again during CY2020 driven by the expansion of commercial 5G communication services.
  • We believe Advantest is still overvalued at its current price of JPY3,445 per share. As the memory market downturn has just started impacting Advantest, we feel the company share price will decline further with the earnings outlook deteriorating.

3. Luckin Coffee IPO: Wake up and Smell the Coffee

Luckin%20response

Luckin Coffee (LK US), a high growth coffee chain in China, has filed for an IPO to raise 800mn USD (Source: Reuters).  We note the following points. 

Intro to Luckin IPO

Slowing exit rate and high cash burn amidst financials in our view

A great growth market beset by tough competition

4. 6954 🇯🇵 Fanuc • Timing the Cycle

2019 04 25 16 59 32

Source: Japan Analytics

FANUC (6954 JP)‘s FY2019 results were released on 25th April, and the detail and the downside risk has been well-covered by Lightstream’s Mio Kato in Fanuc: Profitability Deterioration and Share Price Rebound Open Up Significant Downside. This Insight will look instead at the company’s earnings cycle and its relationship with Fanuc’s Relative Price Score. In the DETAIL section below, we shall also look at the company’s forecast history, Comprehensive Income, cash flows, shareholder returns and historical valuation trends. Although we share some of Mio’s concerns, we do not share his view that “the stock can trade down towards 1.0-1.5x PB – it does not strike us as impossible for the stock to halve”. Although the upside may be constrained, we believe the 25th December 2018 low of ¥15,760 will be the current cycle low point.

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Brief Growth Ideas: Starbucks (SBUX): Luckin (LK) Not a Concern Anymore According to Its IPO Form and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Starbucks (SBUX): Luckin (LK) Not a Concern Anymore According to Its IPO Form
  2. Indusind Bank: One More Disturbing Lapse of Judgment by the “Banker of the Year”

1. Starbucks (SBUX): Luckin (LK) Not a Concern Anymore According to Its IPO Form

Pic%205

  • Luckin Coffee (LK US) reaped Starbucks’ growth strategy in China in 2018; however, after reading Luckin’s IPO files, we believe Luckin will not be a threat to Starbucks China after two years.
  • We believe Luckin’s cash balance after IPO will be used up in 3 years as maximum at current speed.
  • We believe Luckin will accelerate its usage of cash with the IPO funds.
  • We also believe it is hard for Luckin to control its costs or raise its product prices.

2. Indusind Bank: One More Disturbing Lapse of Judgment by the “Banker of the Year”

Indusind%20sprit%20charges

Romesh Sobti, the CEO of Indusind Bank, was recently crowned ‘banker of the year’ by a fawning business media, despite reporting two consecutive years of fudged accounts (FY2016 and FY2017) and putting nearly 8% of the bank’s capital at risk in an ill-advised, unsecured loan to the insolvent IL&FS. We find that the lauded banker is also grappling with a Rs 5 bn loan to the liquidity-constrained investment company of the founder of the Essel media group (flagship, Zee Entertainment Enterprises). It remains a mystery why Indusind Bank gave such a high-risk loan in end-April 2018 and secured it against an illiquid, optionally convertible security of an unlisted associate company. To date the loan appears to barely retain its ‘standard’ classification, but the investment companies of the Zee founders have brought considerable grief to the mutual fund industry, exposing their poor credit appraisal and risk management policies. If the Zee founders are unable to divest assets and sell part of their holding in the flagship listed company, Indusind Bank shareholders will share the grief of the investors in debt mutual funds who had subscribed to the ill-fated paper issued by companies of the Zee founders. It is time the banking regulator also closely monitored the credit and risk systems at Indusind Bank. The coveted laurel gracing the head of Indusind Bank’s CEO may turn out to be a crown of thorns for stakeholders of the bank, exposing once again the credit appraisal and risk mitigation policies in this bank.

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Brief Growth Ideas: Starbucks (SBUX): Luckin (LK) Not a Concern Anymore According to Its IPO Form and more

By | Daily Briefs, Growth Ideas

In this briefing:

  1. Starbucks (SBUX): Luckin (LK) Not a Concern Anymore According to Its IPO Form
  2. Indusind Bank: One More Disturbing Lapse of Judgment by the “Banker of the Year”
  3. Hutchison-China Meditech (和黄医药) H-Share Listing: MNC Partnerships Endorsed Its R&D Capabilities

1. Starbucks (SBUX): Luckin (LK) Not a Concern Anymore According to Its IPO Form

Pic%205

  • Luckin Coffee (LK US) reaped Starbucks’ growth strategy in China in 2018; however, after reading Luckin’s IPO files, we believe Luckin will not be a threat to Starbucks China after two years.
  • We believe Luckin’s cash balance after IPO will be used up in 3 years as maximum at current speed.
  • We believe Luckin will accelerate its usage of cash with the IPO funds.
  • We also believe it is hard for Luckin to control its costs or raise its product prices.

2. Indusind Bank: One More Disturbing Lapse of Judgment by the “Banker of the Year”

Indusind%20sprit%20charges

Romesh Sobti, the CEO of Indusind Bank, was recently crowned ‘banker of the year’ by a fawning business media, despite reporting two consecutive years of fudged accounts (FY2016 and FY2017) and putting nearly 8% of the bank’s capital at risk in an ill-advised, unsecured loan to the insolvent IL&FS. We find that the lauded banker is also grappling with a Rs 5 bn loan to the liquidity-constrained investment company of the founder of the Essel media group (flagship, Zee Entertainment Enterprises). It remains a mystery why Indusind Bank gave such a high-risk loan in end-April 2018 and secured it against an illiquid, optionally convertible security of an unlisted associate company. To date the loan appears to barely retain its ‘standard’ classification, but the investment companies of the Zee founders have brought considerable grief to the mutual fund industry, exposing their poor credit appraisal and risk management policies. If the Zee founders are unable to divest assets and sell part of their holding in the flagship listed company, Indusind Bank shareholders will share the grief of the investors in debt mutual funds who had subscribed to the ill-fated paper issued by companies of the Zee founders. It is time the banking regulator also closely monitored the credit and risk systems at Indusind Bank. The coveted laurel gracing the head of Indusind Bank’s CEO may turn out to be a crown of thorns for stakeholders of the bank, exposing once again the credit appraisal and risk mitigation policies in this bank.

3. Hutchison-China Meditech (和黄医药) H-Share Listing: MNC Partnerships Endorsed Its R&D Capabilities

Fruquintinib%20 %20crc

Hutchison-China Meditech, China-based AIM and NASDAQ dual listed pharmaceutical company, is seeking to raise up to USD 500 million via a Hong Kong listing. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

  • Company background
  • Progress of clinical trials of its three key drug candidates
  • Key licensing agreements
  • Key takeaways from its financials
  • Shareholders of the company

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