India

In today’s briefing:

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target

UCO Bank (UCO IN) Vs. Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN): Trade Closed as Mean Reversion Hits Target

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Uco Bank (UCO IN) and Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

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Jun 29

Daily Brief India: Crizac and more

In today’s briefing:

CRIZAC IN: Upcoming IPO – Niche B2B Educational Platform: Should You Subscribe?

CRIZAC IN: Upcoming IPO – Niche B2B Educational Platform: Should You Subscribe?

Crizac is a play on growth of overseas education. Its network of agents help candidates file University applications, which are then processed by Crizac before passing it to the universities
Universities are increasingly outsourcing application and assessment processes to tap inbound students from emerging markets like India/China. 7mn people study abroad today, off which 3+mn are from India and China.
IPO is priced attractively at TTM PE of 28x. We estimate FY27 EPS of 11-13 and potential multiple of 30x implying an upside of 35-60% from IPO price of 245

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Jun 28

Daily Brief India: Copper, Natco Pharma, Delhi International Airport Limited, Sambhv Steel Tubes and more

In today’s briefing:

DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens
Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN): Getting Ready for the Next Moonshot
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Sambhv Steel Tubes: Backward Integration, Rising Margins,Capacity-Led Growth Steel Pipe Player

DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens

By Rahul Jain

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.
This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.
Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.

Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN): Getting Ready for the Next Moonshot

Natco specializes in complex generics with a catalogue of 30 Para IV filings (14 approved), demonstrating strong R&D expertise and a track record of successful high-value launches most prominently gRevlimid.
Its current pipeline include potential blockbuster drugs like generic versions of Evrysdi, Ozempic/Wegovy (GLP-1), Kyprolis, and Imbruvica, which could drive future growth and offset concerns about declining Revlimid revenues post-FY26.
We estimate Natco (ex-Revlimid) can generate ~2,500cr in revenues with profit of 320-350cr. Its 3,500cr cash-in-hand, Para IV optionalities and NCE investments (Gene therapy) make its current valuation attractive.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Delhi Int’l Airport, Longfor Group, Softbank Group, Xiaomi Corp
US treasury yields continued to decline for a fifth straight day, on the back of a strong auction of 7Y notes, as well as increased market expectations for rate cuts. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 6 bps to 3.72%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 4.24%.
Equities climbed towards record high levels. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 6,141, just shy of the peak of 6,144 in February. The Nasdaq advanced 1.0% to 20,168.

Sambhv Steel Tubes: Backward Integration, Rising Margins,Capacity-Led Growth Steel Pipe Player

Sambhv’s single-location, fully backward-integrated facility – from sponge iron to pipes—ensures strong cost control and superior EBITDA per ton, outpacing peers reliant on outsourced raw materials and power.
Capacity ramp-up from 2.5L MT to 4.5L MT in FY25, new stainless-steel lines, and Kesda’s greenfield project set the stage for multi-year growth visibility and operating leverage.
With ₹390 crore from IPO proceeds going toward debt repayment, Sambhv strengthens financial flexibility, improves credit metrics, and positions itself well for capex execution and margin retention.

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Jun 27

Daily Brief India: Max Healthcare Institute, Kalpataru Limited and more

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Multiple Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; New Pair Trade Ideas
Kalpataru Ltd IPO – Cemented by Debt Repayment

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: Multiple Changes to Expected ADDs/DELs; New Pair Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices during the September 2025 index rebal event.
We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 in the September 2025 rebal.

Kalpataru Ltd IPO – Cemented by Debt Repayment

Kalpataru Limited (KTARU IN) is looking to raise about US$184m in its upcoming India IPO.
Kalpataru (KL) is an integrated real estate developer involved in identification and acquisition of land, planning, designing, execution, sales, and marketing of its projects.
In this note, we take a quick look at the company’s past performance and the IPO valuations.

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Jun 26

Daily Brief India: Pvr Inox, Uco Bank, Kolte Patil Developers and more

In today’s briefing:

PVRINOX IN: Tactical Bet – Strong Content Pipeline Can Translate to near Term Outperformance
Uco Bank Vs. Indian Overseas Bank: Quant-Driven Pair Trade with Fundamental Edge
Kolte Patil: FY25 Was Tough But FY26 Is Poised To Be Strong

PVRINOX IN: Tactical Bet – Strong Content Pipeline Can Translate to near Term Outperformance

FY25 was Indian boxoffice’s worst performance ever (ex-covid). FY26 has started strong with multiple hits and June-Dec lineup boasts multiple action-oriented and sequel movies; genres that are witnessing high occupancy.
Company has strengthened its balance sheet post ‘INOX’ acquisition despite the revenue slump. fixed cost/screen is flat vs FY20 at 2cr while average ticket prices have grown at 5% CAGR
Comfortable entry level valuation (10.5x TTM EBITDA vs global peers CNK/AMC at 12/35x) supported by improved operational execution position the stock as a near term re-rating candidate.

Uco Bank Vs. Indian Overseas Bank: Quant-Driven Pair Trade with Fundamental Edge

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) vs. UCO Bank (UCO IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: Going long UCO Bank (UCO IN) and short Indian Overseas Bank (IOB IN) based on statistical mean reversion, with UCO Bank supported by cheaper valuations.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Kolte Patil: FY25 Was Tough But FY26 Is Poised To Be Strong

FY25 was a tough year for Kolte Patil due to delay in new launches which led to lower than expected pre-sales. FY25 pre-sales growth was flat YoY vs 20%+ guided.
Business development activity was also underwhelming at INR 4000cr vs INR 8000cr guided. This has been due to delays, suggesting that FY26 will be better led by spillover.
In terms of execution, 2 Million Square Feet (MSF) was delivered in FY25 leading to revenue of INR 1764cr, up 27% YoY, and EBITDA of 227cr, up 252% YoY.

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Jun 25

Daily Brief India: Kiri Industries, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Kent R O Systems, Poonawalla Fincorp and more

In today’s briefing:

Kiri Industries (KIRI IN): Heads I Make 50%; Tails I Don’t Lose Much
HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights
HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery
Kent R O Systems Ltd IPO- Purity at a Price
The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services

Kiri Industries (KIRI IN): Heads I Make 50%; Tails I Don’t Lose Much

Dyes and pigments player Kiri Industries is set to realise $580mn post-taxes for its 37% stake in Singapore based DyStar Global; ~50% above its current marketcap of $370mn.
Adjusting for Debt repayment, we estimate that once proceeds have been recieived and pending warrants have been converted, cash in books will stand at INR ~600/share vs CMP: 570
The company’s core dyes business, its 40% stake in Lonsen Kiri Chemicals India and its copper investments could be worth 300+share taking SOTP to ~900

HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India’s seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion).
I discussed the fundamentals in HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 2 July.
My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.

HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

By Rahul Jain

Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.
Track Record & Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.
Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.

Kent R O Systems Ltd IPO- Purity at a Price

By Nitin Mangal

Kent R O Systems (6592700Z IN) Kent R O Systems Ltd plans to come up with its IPO
The company is the second largest player in the Indian water purifier market with a market share of about 20%, behind Eureka Forbes.
We are concerned with the related party transactions of the company, especially with the promoters. The lease rental policy, coupled with some impairments, and trademark infringement matter also attracts attention.

The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services

Poonawalla Fincorp is targeting a 5–6x AUM growth over five years, driven by new product launches, digital innovation, and branch expansion in the gold loan segment.
Backed by the Cyrus Poonawalla Group and led by seasoned professionals, the company’s low cost of borrowing and tech-first approach enhances its competitive positioning in the NBFC space.
The shift toward secured lending, digital underwriting, and MSME focus suggests a more resilient and scalable growth model, improving visibility on profitability and asset quality.

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Jun 24

Daily Brief India: HDB Financial Services Ltd, HealthCare Global Enterprises and more

In today’s briefing:

HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case
Healthcare Global (HCG): Beyond Consolidation Now, Next Two Years Could Be Strong
HDB Financial Services IPO – Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George

HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India’s seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion).
The proposed IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs25 billion (US$388 million) and a secondary raise of Rs100 billion (US$1.2 billion) by the parent.
The fundamentals are average at best, as HDB does not outperform its NBFC peers on key performance indicators.

Healthcare Global (HCG): Beyond Consolidation Now, Next Two Years Could Be Strong

HCG continues to scale up well with the emerging centers reporting 32% YoY revenue growth in Q4FY25. Q4FY25 revenue from established centers also grew strong at 22% YoY.
International footfalls have resumed strong, led by which the revenue in the South Mumbai center grew 38% YoY. Revenue in Kolkata center also grew well at 22% YoY.
HCG has been in consolidation phase over the last four years. Now, the next two years should witness strong growth in profitability, led by margin expansion and continued volume growth.

HDB Financial Services IPO – Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

By Sumeet Singh

HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

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Jun 21

Daily Brief India: Orkla India Ltd., Oswal Pumps, Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Trent Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

In today’s briefing:

Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand
Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!
Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail
Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit
Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

Orkla India Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

Orkla India Ltd. (OI) is looking to raise about US$300mn in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, Citi, JPM, and Kotak.
It’s a multi-category Indian food company offering a diverse range of products that cater to every meal occasion, from breakfast and lunch to dinner, snacks and beverages and desserts.
OI was one of the top four companies in terms of revenue from operations among select leading species and convenience foods peers in FY24, as per Technopak Report.

Oswal Pumps IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Strong Overall Demand

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) raised about US$162m in its India IPO.
Oswal Pumps Ltd (OPL) specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Lalithaa Jewellery Mart Ltd (1607844D IN) (LJML) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are AnandRathi and Equirius.
LJML is a jewellery retailer operating under the brand name “Lalithaa”, offering a range of gold, silver, and diamond jewellery tailored to regional preferences in southern India.
As per the CRISIL Report, the company recorded the highest operating revenue per store among key organised jewellery players in India during FY22-9M25.

Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Sell – Priced for Perfection!

By Avien Pillay

We are bullish on the long-term growth of the hospital sector in India.
We are, however, concerned that Apollo will face intense competition as it expands.
A 53 FPE does not factor in the high cost of expansion and potential challenges.

Trent’s Zudio: The Fast Fashion Trend Reshaping India’s Retail

By Nimish Maheshwari

Zudio has rocketed to 765 stores, now half of Trent’s revenue, with FY-25 sales topping to A Billion dollars and 244 outlets added in one year.
Its asset-light FOCO rollout, 15-day design-to-rack cycle and sub-INR 999 pricing are redefining India’s value-fashion economics and pressuring rivals to mimic.
Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is no longer a steady Westside play; Zudio’s runaway scale and margins reposition the group as India’s fastest-growing, mass-market fashion juggernaut.

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) – Trade Exit and Take Profit

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and Bajaj Finance (BAF IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +4.7% return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Indian NR Production Marginally Improves, Consumption Down

By Vinod Nedumudy

FY 2024-25 NR production at 875,000 tons, consumption 1.41 mn tons
Compound rubber imports go up by 44.5% to 245,407 tons in FY 24-25
Replanting supported primarily by pineapple farming contractors

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Jun 20

Daily Brief India: National Stock Exchange, KPIT Technologies, Knowledge Realty Trust and more

In today’s briefing:

How SEBI’s Expiry Day Overhaul Impacts NSE & BSE ?
KPIT Tech: Strong Deal Wins Despite Tough Environment Attests Strong Competitive Positioning
Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Assets Have Been Doing Well

How SEBI’s Expiry Day Overhaul Impacts NSE & BSE ?

By Nimish Maheshwari

Starting September 1, 2025, BSE will shift its weekly expiry to Thursday, while NSE’s weekly expiry will move to Tuesday, reducing overlap between the two major exchanges.
The move aims to streamline operations, reduce volatility, and increase uniformity across exchanges, aligning with global standards and institutional preferences.
BSE’s shift to Thursday expiry could benefit its market share, but NSE’s Tuesday expiry may help it regain some of the ground lost in recent months, intensifying competition.

KPIT Tech: Strong Deal Wins Despite Tough Environment Attests Strong Competitive Positioning

KPIT Technologies (“KPIT”) reported $280mm worth of deal wins in Q4Y25, well beyond the typical run-rate of $150mm+, despite the tough demand environment, which demonstrates KPIT’s strong competitive positioning.
KPIT’s Q4FY25 PAT excluding one-time income grew 18%+ YoY in INR and 15% YoY in constant currency (CC) terms. Revenue growth was 15% YoY and 3% QoQ in CC terms.
Margins continued to be strong with Q4FY25 EBITDA margin at 21.1%. With this, the full-year FY25 EBITDA margin ended at 21%, in line with the upgraded guidance.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Assets Have Been Doing Well

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is planning to raise about US$558m through its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier estimated deal size of about US$712m.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per the CBRE report.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief India: Bajaj Finance Ltd, Knowledge Realty Trust, Geojit Financial Services, Zydus Lifesciences Ltd, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility and more

In today’s briefing:

Bajaj Finance: Decent FY25, All Set for a Strong FY26
Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts
The Beat Ideas: Geojit Financial- Riding on Its Customer Base to Build a ₹20,000 Cr Wealth Business
Business Breakdown: Zydus Lifesciences ~ Bet on R&D and New Launches to Fill the Revenue Gap
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..

Bajaj Finance: Decent FY25, All Set for a Strong FY26

Bajaj Finance Ltd (“BAF”) reported a healthy Q4FY25, thus closing the full-year FY25 on a strong note. AUM ended FY25 at INR 416,661cr, a growth of 26% YoY.
Customer franchise had crossed 100mm and is now close to 102mm. Notably, Bajaj Finserv App now has 70mm+ customers. FinAI transformation is also progressing well.
While FY25 had some challenges due to higher credit cost and NIM compression, BAF is all set to post a strong FY26 led by stable asset quality and NIM.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is planning to raise about US$558m through its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier estimated deal size of about US$712m.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per the CBRE report.
In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

The Beat Ideas: Geojit Financial- Riding on Its Customer Base to Build a ₹20,000 Cr Wealth Business

Geojit is targeting INR 20,000 crore in PMS AUM within three years from INR 1200 Crore, backed by new leadership, expanded RM hiring, and deep NRI-retail presence.
This signals a shift from cyclical broking to stable, high-margin wealth management boosting recurring income and long-term profitability.
Geojit is evolving into a full-stack wealth platform, making it a re-rating candidate if it delivers on PMS scale-up and sustains income diversification.

Business Breakdown: Zydus Lifesciences ~ Bet on R&D and New Launches to Fill the Revenue Gap

By Nimish Maheshwari

Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) is a leading global healthcare company specializing in generic drugs, biosimilars, and innovative therapies across multiple therapeutic areas.
While the Revlimid slowdown risk looms, Zydus aims to offset this with a strong pipeline of new product launches and R&D innovations.
Its secondary sales have consistently outpaced market growth, driven by strong performances in chronic and specialty products.

Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..