India

In today’s briefing:

Bajaj Finance: Decent FY25, All Set for a Strong FY26
Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts
The Beat Ideas: Geojit Financial- Riding on Its Customer Base to Build a ₹20,000 Cr Wealth Business
Business Breakdown: Zydus Lifesciences ~ Bet on R&D and New Launches to Fill the Revenue Gap
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..

Bajaj Finance: Decent FY25, All Set for a Strong FY26

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance Ltd (“BAF”) reported a healthy Q4FY25, thus closing the full-year FY25 on a strong note. AUM ended FY25 at INR 416,661cr, a growth of 26% YoY.
Customer franchise had crossed 100mm and is now close to 102mm. Notably, Bajaj Finserv App now has 70mm+ customers. FinAI transformation is also progressing well.
While FY25 had some challenges due to higher credit cost and NIM compression, BAF is all set to post a strong FY26 led by stable asset quality and NIM.

Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO – The Positives – Premium Market Positioning, Healthy Forecasts

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is planning to raise about US$558m through its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier estimated deal size of about US$712m.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per the CBRE report.
In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

The Beat Ideas: Geojit Financial- Riding on Its Customer Base to Build a ₹20,000 Cr Wealth Business

Geojit is targeting INR 20,000 crore in PMS AUM within three years from INR 1200 Crore, backed by new leadership, expanded RM hiring, and deep NRI-retail presence.
This signals a shift from cyclical broking to stable, high-margin wealth management boosting recurring income and long-term profitability.
Geojit is evolving into a full-stack wealth platform, making it a re-rating candidate if it delivers on PMS scale-up and sustains income diversification.

Business Breakdown: Zydus Lifesciences ~ Bet on R&D and New Launches to Fill the Revenue Gap

By Nimish Maheshwari

Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) is a leading global healthcare company specializing in generic drugs, biosimilars, and innovative therapies across multiple therapeutic areas.
While the Revlimid slowdown risk looms, Zydus aims to offset this with a strong pipeline of new product launches and R&D innovations.
Its secondary sales have consistently outpaced market growth, driven by strong performances in chronic and specialty products.

Amara Raja Energy & Mobility: Revenue Growth Offset by Margin Pressures, Strategic Capex Continues..

ARE&M reported Q4 FY25 with modest revenue growth but saw slight declines in EBITDAand PAT margins due to cost pressures and provisions.
Elevated material and power costs significantly impacted profitability despite underlying business growth, presenting a challenge for margin recovery efforts.
Focus shifts to monitoring the effectiveness of recent price hikes, cost-saving initiatives, and the ramp-up of new, more efficient manufacturing facilities in restoring targeted margins.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief India: Vishal Mega Mart, HDB Financial Services Ltd, Hindustan Zinc, LIC Housing Finance, Biocon Biologics India and more

In today’s briefing:

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying
HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing
HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push
LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Vishal Mega Mart (VMM IN) Placement: PE Selling Will Lead to Large Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

Reports indicate that Kedaara Capital Fund is looking to sell 22% of Vishal Mega Mart at a floor price of INR 110/share, a 11.9% discount to the last close.
The placement will lead to a huge increase in the free float for the stock and Vishal Mega Mart could be added to a global index in August.
Vishal Mega Mart is also an inclusion to another global index at the close on Friday and we could see more buying in the stock following the increase in float.

HDB Financial IPO: Offer Details & Index Entry Timing

By Brian Freitas

HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR125bn (US$1.46bn) of stock at a valuation of around INR 620bn (US$7.2bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in December.
HDB Financial Services Ltd‘s peers have traded well over the last 6 months and that could spill over into demand for the stock. Grey market premium is pretty high.

HINDZINC – ₹12,000 Cr Smelter Expansion Approved Amid Long-Term Growth Push

HZL has approved a ₹12,000 crore investment to set up a 250 KTPA integrated zinc smelter at Debari as part of its 2x capacity expansion plan.
While smelting investments are not inherently value-accretive due to low TCs, they are necessary to process captive ore and minimize logistics costs.
The overall growth outlook remains strong, but the pending mine lease expiries by 2030 pose a material long-term risk.

LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

As projected by us, LIC Housing Finance (“LICHF”) ended FY25 with a strong PAT of INR 5400cr+ (up 14%+ YoY), led by normalized credit cost of around 0.1%.
Q4FY25 PAT at INR 1374cr grew strong at 25%+ YoY. FY25 AUM grew 7.1% despite certain technical challenges. Total disbursements in FY25 grew at 9% YoY.
NIM ended FY25 at 2.73%, in line with the expectation. Led by technical write-offs and sale of certain NPAs to ARCs, Stage 3 assets improved to 2.47% vs 3.31% YoY.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Biocon Biologics, Tata Motors, ReNew Energy
US treasury yields rose for a second day, with the curve steepening despite good overall demand for an auction of 20Y notes. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.97%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 5 bps at 4.45%.
Equities advanced on news that Iran was asking Gulf states to mediate a ceasefire with Israel. The S&P 500 increased 0.9% to 6,033, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% to 19,701.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief India: Biocon Ltd, Tata Motors and more

In today’s briefing:

Biocon Ltd QIP – Well Flagged US$522m QIP; Largely Towards Clearing Debt
Short Tata Motors – JLR Investor Day – All About Tariffs, China & BEV. Guidance Slashed for FY26.

Biocon Ltd QIP – Well Flagged US$522m QIP; Largely Towards Clearing Debt

Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN) Biocon Ltd is looking to raise up to US$522m in its qualified institutional placement (QIP).
The deal is well flagged, having gone through rounds of board/shareholder approvals. The QIP has also been covered by domestic media reports.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Short Tata Motors – JLR Investor Day – All About Tariffs, China & BEV. Guidance Slashed for FY26.

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Tata Motors (TTMT IN)subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover’s volumes, revenue, EBIT margins and FCF all plateaued in FY25.
US Tariffs & China Slowdown Undermine FY26 Outlook: The tariffs on UK car imports and collapsing China JV performance together threaten JLR’s two most profitable regions.
Company expects JLR EBIT margin to crash to the 5–7% range (vs 8.5% in FY25) and FCF to fall to zero vs GBP 1.5 billion in FY25.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief India: Inventurus Knowledge Solutions and more

In today’s briefing:

Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

By Nicholas Tan

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
It is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief India: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Canara Bank and more

In today’s briefing:

Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Timely Succession Plan to Augur Well for Next-Level of Growth
Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Financial Pair Trades

Sun Pharmaceutical (SUNP IN): Timely Succession Plan to Augur Well for Next-Level of Growth

By Tina Banerjee

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN) is appointing Kirti Ganorkar as the Managing Director to succeed Dilip Shanghvi, effective September 1, 2025, with the entire business reporting to him.
In another development, Richard Ascroft will be joining as CEO – North America, succeeding Abhay Gandhi. Aalok Shanghvi has been additionally entrusted with the responsibility for the North America business.
Succession plan and management rejig come at a time when SPIL is at an inflection point, with its India business being on a strong foothold and specialty business gaining traction.

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Financial Pair Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Two pair trade opportunities in the Indian financial sector persist, with price ratios exceeding two standard deviations from their historical means.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

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Jun 14

Daily Brief India: Vishal Mega Mart, Oswal Pumps, RHI Magnesita India and more

In today’s briefing:

Vishal Mega Mart IPO Lockup Expiry – US$4bn Lockup Release with PE Sitting on 10x Gains
Oswal Pumps: Snapshot of Growth, Strategy, and Risks (NSE: OSWALPUMPS)
RHIM (NSE: RHIM) – Margins Easing, Capex Driving Growth, Integration Overhang Fading

Vishal Mega Mart IPO Lockup Expiry – US$4bn Lockup Release with PE Sitting on 10x Gains

By Sumeet Singh

Vishal Mega Mart raised around US$950m in its India IPO. Its IPO linked lockup will expire soon.
Vishal Mega Mart Limited (VMM), is a one-stop retail destination. As per the company it targets middle and lower-middle income consumers across India.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Oswal Pumps: Snapshot of Growth, Strategy, and Risks (NSE: OSWALPUMPS)

Past Growth: Oswal scaled rapidly under PM-KUSUM, becoming India’s largest solar pump supplier with strong revenue and order book growth.
Plans: It aims to expand capacity, enter industrial pumps and motors, and grow exports and private-sector sales.
Risks: Heavy reliance on a tapering subsidy scheme, limited post-KUSUM demand, and exposure to policy, ESG, and working capital challenges.

RHIM (NSE: RHIM) – Margins Easing, Capex Driving Growth, Integration Overhang Fading

Margin pressures are likely to ease from Q2FY26 as raw material costs normalize and recent price hikes take effect.
The company is executing a Rs150 Cr capex plan focused on automating DOCL plants and localizing high-margin products.
Integration challenges, cost inflation, and inventory issues that weighed on FY24–25 performance appear largely behind now.

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Jun 13

Daily Brief India: SAI Life Sciences, Oswal Pumps, Vedanta Resources, Divi’s Laboratories and more

In today’s briefing:

Sai Life Sciences IPO Lockup – US$840m Lockup Release; TPG Asia up 5.8x with a 24.8% Stake
Oswal Pumps IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN): Double-Digit Growth and Margin Improvement to Continue

Sai Life Sciences IPO Lockup – US$840m Lockup Release; TPG Asia up 5.8x with a 24.8% Stake

SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) raised around US$360m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Sai Life Sciences is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation providing end-to-end services across drug discovery, development and manufacturing value-chain, for small to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Oswal Pumps IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) is looking to raise about US$162m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$250m.
Oswal Pumps Ltd (OPL) specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

US treasury yields declined yesterday, led by the short end, given softer than expected CPI data and a solid auction for the 10Y notes.
The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps at 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.42%.
Equities halted a three-day advance, albeit remaining near record-high levels.

Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN): Double-Digit Growth and Margin Improvement to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN) ended FY25 on a strong note. Continued momentum in CS business, recovery in generic business, and significant margin improvement are the key highlights of Q4FY25 result.
Divi’s is witnessing sustained momentum in CS, with a healthy uptick in RFPs and regular site visits. Favorable product mix, stable raw material, and logistics prices will improve overall margin.
Moving ahead, the company is looking to maintain double-digit revenue growth. This compares favorably with less than 2% revenue CAGR over the last three years.

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Jun 12

Daily Brief India: Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) and more

In today’s briefing:

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, ICICI.
BCCL is a subsidiary of Coal India Limited engaged primarily in the mining of coking coal. It produces various grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal.
According to the CRISIL Report, BCCL was the largest producer of coking coal in India in FY25, contributing 58.50% to the country’s total domestic coking coal production.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief India: Trent Ltd, Tata Motors, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Steel, Shilpa Medicare, RITES Ltd, Dodla Dairy and more

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows
Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak
The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse
FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors
India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges
Shilpa Medicare: Strong FY25, FDF and Biologics, Focus on Asset Monetisation
RITES Ltd (NSE: RITES) – Stable Core, Turnkey Drag, Strong Rail Capex Tailwinds
Dodla Dairy (DODLA) – Multiple Near-Term Triggers Position It for Re-Rating

Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The semiannual index rebal events of the SENSEX index, BSE 100 index, and BSE 200 index will take place in June 2025.
There will be two changes for BSE Sensex, three changes for BSE 100, and eight changes for BSE 200.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.

Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak

By Sreemant Dudhoria

We continue to reiterate our short call on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) based on near term challenges.
May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments – India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales
This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.

The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse

CFCL is shifting from a subsidy-driven urea player to a diversified Agri-inputs firm, with strong traction in crop protection, biologicals, and a INR 1,645 Cr TAN project. .
This diversification reduces exposure to regulatory risks, enhances margins, and positions CFCL for long-term structural growth in high-value Agri-solutions
With a near debt-free balance sheet and visibility on INR 900–1,000 Cr revenue from TAN, we now view CFCL as a multi-engine growth story beyond commoditized urea.

FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors

By Vinod Nedumudy

MRF stages recovery in margin in Q4, others suffer
CEAT breaches US$1.51 billion for the first time in revenue in FY25
High raw material costs eat into profits of majors

India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges

Steel prices declined for 5 straight weeks; long products like rebar and wire rod saw the steepest fall amid weak spot market sentiment.
Companies expect higher Q1 FY26 realizations, but spot trends remain weak, highlighting a lag between optimism and transactional reality.
Auto and housing demand is softening; only two-wheelers, EVs, and commercial real estate offer near-term support to steel consumption.

Shilpa Medicare: Strong FY25, FDF and Biologics, Focus on Asset Monetisation

Shilpa’s FY 25 revenue +13 %, EBITDA margin 26 %, EU-GMP clearances, key FDF launches and stronger biologics/CDMO orders mark a decisive operational step-up.
Growth now rests on differentiated, limited-competition products and biologics CDMO, promising steadier earnings and less reliance on lumpy one-off licensing fees.
Improved asset utilisation, regulatory wins and visible pipeline recast Shilpa from a cyclical API player into a diversified, higher-margin specialty-biologics growth story.

RITES Ltd (NSE: RITES) – Stable Core, Turnkey Drag, Strong Rail Capex Tailwinds

RITES reported a ~10% YoY decline in revenue, from Rs2,453 Cr in FY24 to Rs2,218 Cr in FY25, with PAT falling ~16% to Rs424 Cr due to reduced turnkey execution.
The company is ramping up selective metros, export projects, and EPC work, while maintaining its strong core consultancy business, which makes up roughly 50% of revenue.
Trading at around 34× P/E, with a ROCE of ~21% and a dividend yield of ~3.8%, RITES remains well-positioned to benefit from India’s sustained rail sector investments.

Dodla Dairy (DODLA) – Multiple Near-Term Triggers Position It for Re-Rating

By Garvit Bhandari

Dodla Dairy Ltd, one of India’s leading integrated dairy companies, is on a strong growth trajectory with 3-year revenue CAGR of 18.4% during 2022-2025
Further, the increasing mix of value-added product (VAP) is leading to improving profitability, and robust free cash flow generation.
The valuation, at 23.3x FY27 EPS is reasonable in our view with potential upside for re-rating if the management continues to execute on its growth strategy.

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Jun 09

Daily Brief India: Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders , Bank Of Baroda, Bharat Dynamics Ltd, Bajaj Auto Ltd, Shyam Metalics and Energy, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine
Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB
BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge
KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On
Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals
Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

By Brian Freitas

There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.

Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB

By Victor Galliano

Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk

BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge

BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.
With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.
At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.

KTM Saga, Short Bajaj Auto – There’s a Lot to Chew On

By Sreemant Dudhoria

We cover the multiple factors which led to the operational and financial mess at Pierer Mobility AG, the holding company of KTM.
This insight highlights the past not so great track record of Indian companies acquiring European businesses due to cultural, operational integration and higher restructuring costs.
Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) remains strong domestically, but KTM’s losses, debt, and integration hurdles risk compressing margins and return ratios at the consolidated level. We recommend Shorting Bajaj Auto.

Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals