India

In today’s briefing:

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown
Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut
ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit
Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work

India’s Unexpected 0.5% Rate Cut: Friday’s Market Reaction Breakdown

Context: On June 6, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%, double the anticipated 25 basis points.
The NIFTY 50 Index fluctuated initially but later stabilized at a 1.0% gain, while the NSE Nifty Bank Index rose 1.5%. At-the-money implied volatility changed little, while the skew rotated.
This Insight explains the RBI’s bold policy move, market reactions, and limitations of predictive models in navigating central bank decisions.

Nifty 50 Tactical Outlook After RBI’s Steep Rate Cut

By Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index rallied after RBI cuts key policy rate by 50 bps to 5.50%(but RBI governor said there is limited policy space from here).
Inflation forecast was cut to 3.7%; GDP growth forecast retained at 6.5, but Trump’s trade tariffs and the prospect of a global economic slowdown are generating uncertainty.
The NIFTY was already moving up in the last 2 days and accelerated sharply on Friday. But our model signals that the index is not overbought, it can go higher.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): Mean Reversion Delivers Gains, Trade Exit

Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) and SBI Life (SBILIFE IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +9% return.
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN): India Business Drives 11% PAT Growth in Q4; Margin Levers at Work

By Tina Banerjee

Torrent Pharmaceuticals (TRP IN) reported a 11% YoY increase in net profit to INR5B on an 8% YoY growth in revenue to INR28B in Q4FY25. Domestic business drove overall performance.
Revenue from domestic market increased 12% YoY to INR15.5B, led by outperformance in focus therapies, aided by strong new launch performance. Torrent continued to outperform IPM.
The company is expanding margins by 75–100bps historically. With improving traction in U.S., double-digit growth in Brazil, and continued strong performance in India, the trend is expected to continue.

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Jun 07

Daily Brief India: Vedanta Ltd, Ircon International, Prince Pipes and Fittings, Innovatiview India Ltd, Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) and more

In today’s briefing:

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks
IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles
The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow
Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks

Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.

IRCON International – Stable Franchise with Long-Term Tailwinds, Near-Term Execution Hurdles

FY25 results reflected margin pressure and a 14% revenue decline due to project completions, with FY26 guidance indicating flat revenue and lower core EBITDA margins (5–5.25%).
Indian Railways’ capex is expected to grow at a 6–10% CAGR over the next decade, offering sustained demand across new lines, electrification, and safety systems.
While valuations appear reasonable, near-term growth visibility remains limited due to a muted order book and transition away from cost-plus contracts.

The Beat Ideas: Prince Pipes- Margin Recovery and Market Expansion in Full Flow

Prince Pipes entered the premium bathware segment with the Aquel acquisition, expanding into lifestyle plumbing beyond traditional piping systems.
This move broadens its addressable market and margin profile, creating cross-selling opportunities across its large dealer network.
With margin recovery likely and industry destocking easing, Prince Pipes appears well-positioned for rerating and multi-year profit growth.

Innovatiview India Ltd Pre-IPO – Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

By Rosita Fernandes

Innovatiview India Ltd (INNOVATIVIEWINDIA IN) (IIL) is planning to raise about US$230m in its upcoming India IPO.
IIL is a technology-driven provider of automated ancillary security and surveillance solutions for examinations, elections, and large-scale events across India.
As of Sep 24, IIL was the largest player in examination integrated security solutions in India, according to F&S Report.

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Central Mine Planning Design Institute Ltd (CMPDIL) (0180301D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, SBI Caps.
CMPDIL provides consultancy and support services across the full range of coal and mineral exploration, mine planning and design.
As per the CRISIL Report, it is the largest coal and mineral consultancy in India by market share in FY25 and serves as the preferred consultant for Coal India Limited.

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Jun 06

Daily Brief India: Ola Electric, Hindustan Aeronautics , Bank Of India, Fusion CX Limited, Astral Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.
HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality
Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)
Fusion Cx Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
The Beat Ideas: Astral ~ Leader in PVC Pipes, Riding the Restocking Cycle

Ola Electric: Hyundai Exits Amid Slowing Sales, Delayed Cells and Fundraising Plans.

By Devi Subhakesan

Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) and Kia Corp (000270 KS) have exited their investment in Ola Electric through a combined stake sale worth USD80 million, at a discount to market prices.
The exit marks the end of their 2019 investment in the then-unlisted 2W EV startup and highlights rising investor concerns over Ola Electric’s growth trajectory and operational challenges.
Ola Electric had listed less than a year ago with bullish growth projections, but the stock is down 34% from the issue price and 63% from post-IPO high prices.

HAL (NSE: HAL) – Strong Visibility, Undervalued Optionality

Over FY22–FY25, HAL’s revenue grew at a CAGR of ~8%, while PAT rose at ~15% CAGR, with the order book doubling to ₹1.89 lakh Cr, providing LT visibility.
India’s defence indigenization drive, large platform rollouts (LCA Mk1A, LUH, AMCA, engines), positions HAL to address a Rs3–4 lakh Cr opportunity over the next 5–10 years, including exports.
Despite strong earnings growth, zero debt, and long-term JV upside (e.g., Safran engine), HAL trades at a P/E of ~33–38×, below many peers, indicating room for re-rating.

Relative Value Opportunity: Bank of India (BOI IN) Vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN)

The Bank of India (BOI IN) vs. Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.
The potential relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

Fusion Cx Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Fusion CX Limited (1604907D IN) (FCL) is looking to raise about US$117m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Nuvama, IIFL, Motilal.
FCL is a customer experience (CX) service provider offering integrated services across voice, email, chat, social media, and messaging.
The 2025 Frost & Sullivan Best Practices Report recognized Fusion CX with the “North American Technology Innovation Leadership Recognition” for its technology use and client focus.

The Beat Ideas: Astral ~ Leader in PVC Pipes, Riding the Restocking Cycle

Astral Ltd (ASTRA IN) is a market leader in CPVC and plastic piping systems, with growing presence in adhesives, paints, and water tanks it maintained margins despite industry’s headwinds.
New launches like Fire Pro, OPVC, Drain Pro, and valves are expected to contribute INR 450–500 crore annually, driving high-margin growth and portfolio expansion.
Dealers currently hold just 1–2 weeks of inventory, indicating an imminent restocking cycle that could boost near-term volumes.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief India: Nava, Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Kilburn Engineering, Time Technoplast, Venus Pipes & Tubes and more

In today’s briefing:

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion
Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose
Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up
Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook
Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering

NAVA Limited (NAVA.IN): Diversified Growth, Strong Financials, and Strategic Global Expansion

NAVA’s net profit doubled from ₹536 Cr in FY23 to ₹1,091 Cr in FY25, driven by strong power and mining earnings.
Maamba Phase II will double Zambian power capacity to 600 MW by FY27 with $400M investment. Zambia agri projects in avocado and sugar aim for diversified, steady revenue from FY27.
NAVA has become debt-free, strengthening its balance sheet. Improved credit ratings reflect steady profits, healthy cash flows, and low debt risk.

Shriram Pistons & Rings Ltd: Powering Forward with Precision and Purpose

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

The company is expanding into EV motors, precision plastics, and exports to over 45 countries worldwide
SPRL reported Rs 36,612 million total income in FY25, with 15.3% YoY growth and a 22.8% EBITDA margin
SPRL balances legacy ICE products with new EV, plastics, and non-auto segments for resilient growth

Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited: Robust Core Business Performance and EV Ramp-Up

Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN) reported strong consolidated Q4FY25 financials, driven by fluoropolymers, with significant PAT growth and reduced net debt.
This indicates sustained momentum in core fluoropolymers, potential for significant revenue contribution from the new EV business in the coming years, and an improved balance sheet supporting future investments.
Capex of INR 1,600 crs in FY26 funded via external accruals will expand EV and fluoropolymer capacities, enabling long-term growth across energy, mobility, and specialty segments.

Kilburn Engineering: Record Performance and Robust Growth Outlook

Kilburn Engineering (KEL IN) achieved highest-ever standalone/consolidated revenue and EBITDA, completed two strategic acquisitions (ME Energy, Monga Strayfield), and secured record orders, particularly entering the Nuclear sector.
The performance validates the company’s strategy of diversification and inorganic growth, providing strong visibility for future revenue with 50% growth target for FY26 .
The strong execution, robust order book, and confident management guidance reinforce a positive outlook, suggesting significant growth potential building on recent strategic moves.

Time Technoplast Limited: Value-Added Products and Composites Drive Strong Performance

Strong FY25 financial performance driven by volume growth outpacing revenue, significant PAT increase, and improved margins, particularly from higher-growth value-added and composite product segments.
The strategic focus on higher-margin value-added products, especially composites, is enhancing profitability (margins, ROCE) and positioning the company for future growth in key sectors like clean energy and sustainability.
The consistent execution on strategic targets (ROCE, debt reduction, composite growth) strengthens conviction in the management’s ability to deliver and capitalize on emerging opportunities, despite some project timeline shifts.

Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd- Capacity Rising, Cash Faltering

By Nitin Mangal

Venus Pipes is a growing stainless-steel pipes and tubes manufacturer and exporter in India having over nine years of experience in manufacturing of stainless-steel tubular products.
With respect to forensics, we highlight several takeaways including steep increase in inventory days funded by creditors, expensive capex compared to peers, etc.
Weak governance practices are identified with respect to warrant issuance and non-disclosure of information on several fronts.

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Jun 04

Daily Brief India: Solar Industries India, NSE Nifty Bank Index, State Bank Of India, Nmdc Ltd, Action Construction Equipment, Dollar Industries and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential
Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround
Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
Guidance & Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.

Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround

Action Construction Equipment (ACCE IN) achieved record revenue and profits in FY25 and Q4, demonstrating strong execution and margin expansion.
Secured single largest order from Ministry of Defence, boosting future defense contribution and supporting Make in India.
Management is cautiously optimistic for FY26 due to temporary factors like BS5 price impact, but confident in medium to long-term growth prospects.

Dollar Industries: Navigating Market Headwinds with Strategic Investments and Focus

Dollar Industries (DOLLAR IN) reported modest revenue growth in FY25 amidst a challenging market, with strong emphasis on retail expansion and brand-building initiatives.
Despite a de-growth in sales volume, strategic investments in exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) and a renewed focus on premiumization are crucial for long-term growth.
The company’s resilience in maintaining margins despite volume pressures, coupled with its aggressive retail strategy, signals a potential turnaround as market conditions improve.

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Jun 03

Daily Brief India: Welspun Living, Vesuvius India, Finolex Industries, Triveni Engineering & Industries, Natco Pharma, Deepak Nitrite, Ramkrishna Forgings , Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotel, Godawari Power and Ispat and more

In today’s briefing:

Welspun Living: Navigating with Strategic Diversification and Domestic Focus
Vesuvius India Ltd (NSE: VESUVIUS) – A High-Quality Play on India’s Steel Upswing
The Beat Ideas: Finolex Industries Ltd ~ Vertically Integrated PVC Manufacturer
Triveni Engineering & Industries: Mega Restructuring & Stellar Performance
NATCO Pharma Limited: Record Year Performance Overshadowed by Cautious FY26 Outlook
Deepak Nitrite: Strategic Integration and Ambitious Expansion
Ramkrishna Forgings: Where Inventory Vanishes and Optimism Appears
Park Hotels Limited : Record Performance Fuels Ambitious Expansion
Godawari Power and Ispat Limited: Capacity Expansion and ESG Focus Drive Future Growth

Welspun Living: Navigating with Strategic Diversification and Domestic Focus

FY25 consolidated revenue surpassed INR 10,000 crore mark, increasing 8.9% year-on-year. Emerging businesses contributed over 30% to revenue.
Despite achieving the revenue milestone, Q4 performance and FY25 margins were impacted by cautious customer order patterns due to US tariff uncertainty.
The company is de-risking its geographical exposure by reducing reliance on the US while focusing on the potential from the UK FTA and strengthening its domestic presence, through strategic acquisition.

Vesuvius India Ltd (NSE: VESUVIUS) – A High-Quality Play on India’s Steel Upswing

Vesuvius India has a strong track record of double-digit revenue and profit growth, supported by robust return ratios like 32% ROCE and a debt-free balance sheet.
With ongoing capacity expansions and rising contribution to the parent’s revenue and EBITDA, India is now a key growth engine for the group.
Despite premium valuations, the company’s execution strength and industry tailwinds make it a compelling long-term play.

The Beat Ideas: Finolex Industries Ltd ~ Vertically Integrated PVC Manufacturer

Finolex Industries (FNXP IN) is a leading, vertically integrated Indian PVC manufacturer, the 2nd largest in PVC resin and 3rd in pipes & fittings, with captive production offering cost advantage.
Margin recovery in FY26 is targeted post headwinds faced by industry via pricing correction, improved product mix, enhanced discount management, and cost efficiency programs.
Potential ADD/BIS mandates mid-FY26 may curb Chinese imports, possibly enabling a 5–10% domestic price increase, reshaping the market.

Triveni Engineering & Industries: Mega Restructuring & Stellar Performance

Triveni reported record revenue and PAT for Q4 FY25, largely driven by the exceptional performance of the Power Transmission business and improved sugar realisations despite operational challenges
The strong performance of the Power Transmission segment and strategic focus on exports highlights its potential as a key growth driver, while the proposed restructuring aims to unlock values.
Company is guiding for improvement in each segment including Sugar, IMIL and transmission in the upcoming year.

NATCO Pharma Limited: Record Year Performance Overshadowed by Cautious FY26 Outlook

Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN) achieved record consolidated revenue and profits in FY25 and holds a strong cash position over INR 3,500 crore.
However, the company estimates a significant potential dip in revenue (20%) and profits (30%) for FY26 due to US market pressures and high R&D spend.
This signals near-term headwinds, while long-term growth remains tied to pipeline progress, particularly Semaglutide and Resplan launches in India, and strategic acquisitions.

Deepak Nitrite: Strategic Integration and Ambitious Expansion

Deepak Nitrite (DN IN) reported stable FY25 consolidated results despite challenging market conditions, with a notable Q4 sequential recovery in revenue and profitability.
The company achieved record production volumes through debottlenecking and optimization, maintained strong domestic market share, and initiated a significant shift to renewable energy.
Management outlined an INR 8,500 Cr investment in the PC resin project, alongside other integration and expansion plans, signaling confidence in future growth and resilience.

Ramkrishna Forgings: Where Inventory Vanishes and Optimism Appears

By Nitin Mangal

Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (or RKFL) Q4FY25 results received a qualified audit opinion where inventory correction resulted in loss of 6.7% of net-worth.
The result also included several alarming highlights including a resurgence of inventory bulk up, questionable recognition of DTA, increasing debt, excess remuneration given to directors, etc.
What also takes the limelight is the warrants issue where company has issued warrants at ~3x the floor price to the promoters amidst the financial irregularities.

Park Hotels Limited : Record Performance Fuels Ambitious Expansion

ASPHL reported record Q4 and a “standout” FY25, marked by double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, PBT, and PAT.
The company achieved India’s highest occupancy in Q4 FY25 and maintained leadership in upper upscale RevPAR, outperforming industry averages.
ASPHL announced its detailed significant future expansion via development and acquisitions, indicating confidence in sustained growth.

Godawari Power and Ispat Limited: Capacity Expansion and ESG Focus Drive Future Growth

GPIL met or exceeded FY25 volume guidance, completed key project commissioning like a new rolling mill, and made significant progress on major capex.
These expansions, coupled with GPIL’s backward integration and ESG focus, are expected to drive revenue growth and maintain margin resilience despite prevailing raw material and finished product price volatility.
GPIL also commissioning most of its plant in FY26 along with better commodity environment will drive growth for the company.

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Jun 02

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd, Schloss Bangalore Ltd, Canara Bank and more

In today’s briefing:

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern
Aegis Vopak IPO: Anemic Demand
Schloss Bangalore IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand
Pair Trade Signal: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Long Vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) Short

Nifty 50 and the RBI Rate Decision: History Has a Pattern

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Friday, 6 June 2025.
Market Expectations: The consensus anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the rate from currently 6.00% to 5.75%. Historically, one in four RBI rate decisions is a surprise to the market.
This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements, unearthing a surprising statistic about how the Nifty 50 might react to June’s decision, regardless of the outcome.

Aegis Vopak IPO: Anemic Demand

By Nicholas Tan

Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN) raised about US$328m in its upcoming India IPO.
It is the largest Indian third-party owner and operator (in terms of storage capacity) of tank storage terminals for liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and liquid products.
In our previous notes, we talked about the company’s historical performance, undertook a peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Schloss Bangalore IPO Trading – Decent Anchor; Muted Overall Demand

By Akshat Shah

Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) raised about US$400m in its India IPO.
It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

Pair Trade Signal: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Long Vs. Canara Bank (CBK IN) Short

The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
The relative value opportunity can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight provides a target return and discusses trade setup and risk management strategies.

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Jun 01

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

By John Ley

Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels.
Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks.

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May 31

Daily Brief India: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

US treasuries climbed yesterday, on the back of a strong auction of 7Y notes and amid a soft GDP data release.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 5 bps to 3.94%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 6 bps to 4.42%.
Equities climbed on the back of solid results from Nvidia Corp, albeit the extent of gains was pared later in the day on slowing economic data and legal uncertainties over tariffs.

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May 30

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Sarda Energy & Minerals, Globus Spirits, Indusind Bank, Synergy Green Industries, Aster DM Healthcare Ltd, Bosch Ltd, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company and more

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change
Sarda Energy (SARDA IN): Power-Led Transition with Re-Rating Potential
HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?
Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth & Manufacturing Stability
HDFC Bank (“HDFCB”): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation
A Deep Dive into SEBI’s IndusInd Bank Insider Trading Order
Synergy Green Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Capacity Expansion Fuels Strong FY25
2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM(ASTERDM IN)-Occupancy to Recover; Margin Improvement Continues
Bosch Limited: Shifting Gears Toward Intelligent and Sustainable Mobility
ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): A Statistical Pair Trade Opportunity

NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

By Brian Freitas

To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.

Sarda Energy (SARDA IN): Power-Led Transition with Re-Rating Potential

Sarda’s near-term growth will be driven by the full-year contribution from SKS Power, boosting earnings visibility.
The business mix is shifting structurally from steel to power, which now contributes over 60% of EBIT. Low leverage at <1x EV/EBITDA is a positive.
The recent weakness in spot power prices is seen as temporary; at 15x FY27 EV/EBITDA, the stock offers strong upside.

HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

By Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.
Consensus rating: predominantly “Buy” from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.
The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025.

Globus Spirits: Consumer Business Growth & Manufacturing Stability

Globus Spirits continues its strategic pivot towards high-margin consumer business, with P&A revenue up 186% in FY25 and Regular & Others up 17%.
The manufacturing segment’s margins are stabilising due to favourable government ethanol policies and raw material availability, enhancing overall profitability.
This shift, coupled with significant investments in the key Uttar Pradesh market and near completion of major capex, positions the company for continued profitable growth, reinforcing a positive view.

HDFC Bank (“HDFCB”): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

In Q4FY25, deposits grew strong at 15.8% YoY. QoQ, average deposits grew by 3.1%. Time deposits led the growth while growth in CASA deposits was relatively muted.
In line with its stated strategy, HDFCB’s loan book has been growing slower than that of deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio. Average AUM grew 7.3% YoY in Q4FY25.
Credit-Deposit ratio is now at 96% vs 110% at merger. Going forward, the adjustment in credit-deposit ratio won’t be as steep, thus FY26 is expected to be a normalization year.

A Deep Dive into SEBI’s IndusInd Bank Insider Trading Order

By Nimish Maheshwari

SEBI’s order against IndusInd Bank’s ex-CEO and others reveals a 15-month deliberate delay in disclosing critical accounting discrepancies.
This exposes severe corporate governance failures, eroding investor trust due to alleged insider trading.
SEBI fined the company with the INR 20Crs. to IndusInd officials as well as also barred the senior officials from dealing in security market.

Synergy Green Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Capacity Expansion Fuels Strong FY25

Synergy Green reported robust FY25 performance with 11% revenue growth and 224bps EBITDA margin expansion, driven by direct exports and gearboxes.
Strong execution and margin improvement underscore operational efficiency, while a significant INR 187 crore capex addresses capacity constraints, crucial for future growth.
Performance validates the business model, but the delayed capex execution means FY26 growth will be heavily back-ended, requiring close monitoring of ramp-up.

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM(ASTERDM IN)-Occupancy to Recover; Margin Improvement Continues

By Tina Banerjee

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported 4% revenue decline in Kerala due to festivities, lower international patient, and leadership transition. Ramadan impact caused 2.5–3.0% of the revenue hit.
Going ahead, the company is eyeing for atleast mid-teens growth from Kerala cluster, with 7–8% will be with volumes and balance 7–8% will come from the ARPOB.
Aster’s base business is on a stable growth path. Margin levers are intact. With QCIL merger synergies, the company aims for EBITDA margin of 23–24% in 3–4 years.

Bosch Limited: Shifting Gears Toward Intelligent and Sustainable Mobility

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Bosch Ltd (BOS IN) ‘s multiple technology innovations in mobility, consumer power goods and energy & building technology will drive future growth.
FY25 PBT grew by 17% YoY driven by increased sales in the off-highway segment and mobility aftermarket business.
Deserves a premium valuation for its commitment to innovation, digitalization, and sustainability. Trades at median historical valuation of 40x P/E on FY27e EPS.

ICICI Lombard (ICICIGI IN) Vs. SBI Life (SBILIFE IN): A Statistical Pair Trade Opportunity