India

In today’s briefing:

Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

Belrise Industries, founded by the Badve family, is a leading auto component maker launching its Rs2,150 crore IPO from May 21–23, 2025, at a price band of Rs85–90.
It supplies key chassis and metal parts to top OEMs like Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and HMSI, playing a critical role across ICE and EV platforms.
While most proceeds are earmarked for debt repayment, high working capital needs suggest leverage could rebuild as the business scales.

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May 17

Daily Brief India: Indusind Bank, Asian Paints, Gujarat Mineral Development, Akzo Nobel India and more

In today’s briefing:

IndusInd Bank- Never Ending Trouble
Asian Paints: Navigating Growth Challenges Amid Evolving Industry Dynamics
GMDC (GMDC IN): Steady Core Performance with Hidden Asset Optionality
Akzo Nobel India [India M&A]: JSW Likely Buyer – Investors Should Assess Strategic Impact

IndusInd Bank- Never Ending Trouble

By Nitin Mangal

Indusind Bank (IIB IN) does not seem to be able to get out of hot water.
In yet another accounting and governance pothole, the bank has disclosed a surprising take on interest income, which was overstated by INR 6.7 bn.
The internal audit department also reported unsubstantiated balances of INR 6 bn in other assets, which was netted off with liabilities.

Asian Paints: Navigating Growth Challenges Amid Evolving Industry Dynamics

Q4 FY25 volumes grew 1.8%, value declined; FY26 guidance is for low growth with 18–20% margins supported by integration and cost control.
Grasim and JSW are aggressively expanding with large capex and dealer networks, intensifying pricing pressure in decorative paints.
Stock corrected 15–20% but still trades at ~55x P/E, which remains expensive given slowing growth and rising competitive risks.

GMDC (GMDC IN): Steady Core Performance with Hidden Asset Optionality

GMDC delivered strong FY25 results with 8MT of lignite sales and Rs992 crore in EBITDA, its second-best performance.
The company is focused on scaling lignite and coal volumes through new mines within Gujarat and Odisha. It also plans to diversify into rare earths and critical minerals.
While valuations appear slightly elevated, upside optionality exists from the revival of Akrimota power plant and operationalization of new mines.

Akzo Nobel India [India M&A]: JSW Likely Buyer – Investors Should Assess Strategic Impact

Akzo Nobel N.V. earlier announced its plans to exit India to focus on core markets where it holds a position of “differentiating scale.
JSW Paints has reportedly entered exclusive talks to acquire Akzo India, edging out Advent–Indigo and Pidilite.
Shareholders may tender in the open offer or stay invested for potential upside via JSW which has a long stellar track-record.

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May 16

Daily Brief India: Bharti Airtel, Blackbuck, Tata Motors ADR, Hero Motocorp, GMR Hyderabad International Airport, Tata Steel Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Bharti Airtel Block – Another Singtel Selldown Worth US$1bn
Zinka Logistics IPO Lockup – US$530m Lockup Release; PE Investors Might Look to Book Gains
Tata Motors Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Financial Performance with Focus on EV Growth
Can the India’s Largest Motorcycle Manufacturer Maintain Its Dominance?
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Tata Steel – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

Bharti Airtel Block – Another Singtel Selldown Worth US$1bn

Pastel Ltd, a subsidiary of Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) is looking to raise up to US$1bn via selling a 0.8% stake in Bharti Airtel Limited.
Singtel had sold a 0.8% stake (US$950m then) to GQG Partners in Mar 2024. Singtel had a total stake of around 29.3% in the firm, as of the last close.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Zinka Logistics IPO Lockup – US$530m Lockup Release; PE Investors Might Look to Book Gains

Blackbuck (1355652D IN) raised around US$130m in its India IPO in Nov 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators (in terms of users), with 27.52% of India’s truck operators transacting on its platform in FY24, as per Redseer.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Tata Motors Q4 & FY25 Update: Strong Financial Performance with Focus on EV Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Tata Motors posted its highest-ever annual revenue and PBT for FY25, with strong sequential growth in Q4 driven by robust performance in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments.
The company successfully managed to navigate global trade and tariff challenges, improved its profitability through cost-saving measures, and expanded its leadership in electric mobility.
The results demonstrate Tata Motors’ resilience and long-term growth strategy, especially with a continued focus on electric vehicles and new product innovations.

Can the India’s Largest Motorcycle Manufacturer Maintain Its Dominance?

This note examines Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)’s market share trajectory in the context of broader two-wheeler industry trends.
It also highlights internal leadership churn and execution issues post split from Honda Motor (7267 JP)
Finally, this note reviews the strategic outlook and key challenges ahead for the company, despite its discounted valuation compared to peers.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: GMR Hyderabad, China Vanke, Indofood CBP, Pertamina (Persero), Rakuten Group
Treasuries fell, with yields rising yesterday as the market continued to dial back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Fed-dated OIS were pricing in 49 bps of rate cuts in 2025 as of yesterday (vs. 54 bps as of Tuesday).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 5 bps to 4.05%, while the yield on the 10Y UST expanded 7 bps to 4.54%. Equities edged higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively.

Tata Steel – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Tata Steel has released its Q4 and FY 2024-25 numbers.
Earnings recovery was robust, thanks to operational efficiencies, cost reductions and excellent performance in India despite a challenging global steel market environment.
Profitability improved, while debt decreased and capital investments were maintained amid headwinds in Europe.

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May 15

Daily Brief India: Raymond Lifestyle, SMPP Ltd, Ravi Infrabuild Projects Ltd, Biocon Biologics India, UPL Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

Raymond Lifestyle: Governance Crisis?
SMPP Ltd Pre-IPO – In the Right Space (Defence), at the Right Time but Growth Has Been Inconsistent
Ravi Infrabuild Projects Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Biocon Biologics – Earnings Flash – Q4 And FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics
UPL Limited – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

Raymond Lifestyle: Governance Crisis?

Raymond Lifestyle’s stock plummets 60% in six months post-demerger, due to lots of governance lapses.
Corporate Governance Crisis: CEO,CFO, Director Resignations, Delayed disclosures, Controversial Remuneration and Many More.
The company gave excuses such as inflation, an IT incident, etc. in their management meeting after not being able to deliver the performance.

SMPP Ltd Pre-IPO – In the Right Space (Defence), at the Right Time but Growth Has Been Inconsistent

By Sumeet Singh

SMPP Ltd is planning to raise about US$476m through its upcoming IPO in India.
SMPP Ltd. designs and manufactures defence equipment, specialising in ammunition components and personal protection products for the Indian armed forces, police, and security agencies.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Ravi Infrabuild Projects Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

Ravi Infrabuild Projects Ltd (1607447D IN) (RIPL) is looking to raise about US$178m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are Axis, Motilal.
RIPL is one of the leading infrastructure construction firms in India, experienced in executing structural projects such as flyovers, bridges, railways, highways, and expressways.
RIPL had grown 16.6x in terms of its average order size, reaching INR2,577m (as on Dec 2024), as per the company.

Biocon Biologics – Earnings Flash – Q4 And FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Biocon Limited’s Q4 and FY 2024-25 results were solid in our view, with robust growth, stable profitability, as well as improved working capital and cash flows.
The balance sheet has strengthened, and liquidity is adequate.

UPL Limited – Earnings Flash – FY 2024-25 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

UPL Limited’s Q4 and FY 2024-25 results reflected robust revenue growth, substantial margin expansion, a return to profitability and significant debt reduction.
This was supported by strong operational execution and strategic initiatives across its global markets.
Leverage improved significantly, on account of much lower net debt and higher earnings.

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May 14

Daily Brief India: Yes Bank, Tata Motors Ltd and more

In today’s briefing:

SMBC’s Strategic Entry into Yes Bank: A Look at the Backstory and Future
Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead

SMBC’s Strategic Entry into Yes Bank: A Look at the Backstory and Future

SMBC, a major Japanese bank, is buying a 20% stake in Yes Bank for INR 13,483 crore, marking a significant move towards strengthening Yes Bank’s recovery and future growth.
It provides SMBC direct access to India’s growing banking sector and potential for strategic collaboration.
The partnership enhances Yes Bank’s stability, governance, and access to global markets, positioning it for further growth. SMBC’s involvement could pave the way for future capital support and operational improvements.

Short Tata Motors: Challenges Ahead

Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) delivered a decent operational performance in Q4 FY25, with a flat topline and margin recovery, led by robust performance in the Jaguar Land Rover business.
While the Q4 FY25 performance was steady, we expect near-term results to remain muted.
Therefore, we present a case for shorting Tata Motors in the near term and outlook on individual segments.

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May 13

Daily Brief India: Paytm, KDDL Ltd, Bharat Electronics, Tata Steel Ltd, Sula Vineyards , Belrise Industries, Deep Industries, Hindalco Industries and more

In today’s briefing:

PayTM Block – US$242m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest
The Beat Ideas: KDDL- Precision Engineering with Luxury Retail
BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done
Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation
Sula Vineyards Q4FY25: What Is Hidden?
Belrise Industries Pre-IPO – Expansion Plans and Related Party Risks
Deep Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Strong Topline Growth Amid One-Time Clean-Up
Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

PayTM Block – US$242m Secondary Block Deal a Small One to Digest

Antfin (Netherlands) Holding B.V. (Antfin) is looking to raise up to US$242m via selling a 4% stake in Paytm (PAYTM IN).
Antfin has been selling off its stake since it pared around 12% in its Nov’21 IPO. As of date of writing, it had a 9.85% stake remaining in the firm.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

The Beat Ideas: KDDL- Precision Engineering with Luxury Retail

By Sudarshan Bhandari

KDDL’s precision engineering division, Eigen, is expanding its manufacturing capacity with a new facility and further upgrades planned, aiming to capture high-growth sectors like aerospace, automotive, and medical devices.
This expansion enhances KDDL’s competitive edge in precision engineering, a high-margin segment, and aligns with the company’s goal of making Eigen a significant revenue contributor, targeting 40-50% of manufacturing revenue.
The focus on precision engineering and premium retail through Ethos positions KDDL for sustained growth, balancing stable manufacturing revenue with high-margin luxury retail.

BEL: Earnings Firepower in Place, Rerating Looks Done

Strong Execution: 3-yr PAT CAGR of ~22% with ₹80,354 Cr order book offers 2–4 years of revenue visibility from high-margin defence programs.
Growth Levers: Expanding in seekers, EW, AI, and smart infra; 5 new units and key contracts like Akash, LRSAM, and Shakti drive forward pipeline.
Valuation Stretch: Trading at ~45x FY25E P/E vs 3-yr average of 32x; pricing reflects peak sentiment and leaves little room for error.

Tata Steel: Strategic Pivot in Capital Allocation

Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers.

Sula Vineyards Q4FY25: What Is Hidden?

By Nitin Mangal

In a surprising turn of events, the management of Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) has cancelled earnings call for Q4FY25 citing Indo-Pak conflict after posting bad quarterly numbers.
Receivable cycle has further elongated to all time high since the company became public.
Revenue growth yet remains muted post company became public in 2022.

Belrise Industries Pre-IPO – Expansion Plans and Related Party Risks

Belrise Industries (9156339Z IN) is looking to raise about US$255m in its upcoming India IPO.
Belrise Industries is an automotive component manufacturing company based in India offering a diverse range of safety critical systems and other engineering solutions for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers, commercial and agri-vehicles.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Deep Industries Q4 FY25 Update: Strong Topline Growth Amid One-Time Clean-Up

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Deep Industries (DEEPI IN) reported 39.7% YoY revenue growth in Q4 FY25; EBITDA margins stood resilient at 36.1% despite a INR 251 crore exceptional loss due to asset clean-up.
New offshore contracts (INR 281 crore barge deal), and Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) PEC, and a growing INR 2,960 crore order book reinforce the company’s revenue visibility.
Despite one-off noise in Q4, Deep’s core operations are intact. FY26 guidance of 25–30% revenue growth looks achievable, backed by execution tailwinds.

Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

Novelis posted $1.8B EBITDA on 3.76Mt volume, with weakness in North America offset by aerospace and packaging recovery in Europe and Asia.
Management withheld guidance citing demand uncertainty; Bay Minette capex rose to $4.1B with commissioning now in 2H FY26.
Scrap supply tightness and tariff pressures may hit margins; company expects prolonged impact despite mitigation efforts underway.

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May 12

Daily Brief India: Cipla Ltd, Escorts Kubota Limited, Sundram Fasteners and more

In today’s briefing:

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks
Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation
Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in 3 Weeks

By Brian Freitas

Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-December and/or end-September.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 6 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in May.

Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation

Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.

Sundram Fasteners(SFL IN)–Long Term Drivers in Place, but Near-Term Valuation and Export Risks Weigh

Positioned for Long-Term Growth: Backed by strong industry tailwinds in EVs, clean energy, and exports, Sundram Fasteners (SF IN) is strategically expanding beyond its core auto portfolio into high-potential sectors.
Near-Term Risk-Reward Balanced: With the stock trading at 33x P/E on FY26E earnings, valuations appear stretched, and near-term headwinds from tariff uncertainties may limit upside.
Proven Management & Governance: Backed by the reputable TVS Group, the company’s disciplined execution and transparent governance inspire long-term investor confidence.

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May 11

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

By Sankalp Singh

Onset of IND-PAK military conflict spurs IVs higher to +18% levels. Vol Regime model holds in “High & Up” state.
Skew extends to extreme levels, RRs trades from -5.0 to -7.0 vols. Vol Term-structure is now flat in the front-end & in Backwardation at the back-end of the curve.
Tactical Implications: Avoid Risk-premia harvesting as “High & Up” vol-state prevails.

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May 10

Daily Brief India: Aadhar Housing Finance, Canara Robeco AMC, NIFTY Index and more

In today’s briefing:

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon
Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet
NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup – PE Owner Is up 5.6x, with US$800m Lockup Expiry Soon

By Sumeet Singh

Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon
AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Canara Robeco AMC Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Canara Robeco AMC (570515Z IN) is looking to raise about US$176m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, JM Fin and SBI Caps.
Canara Robeco is an asset management company engaged in managing mutual funds and providing investment advice on Indian equities to Robeco Hong Kong Limited, a member of the Promoter Group.
According to CRISIL, it is India’s second oldest asset management company.

NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip

By Nico Rosti

In our previous NIFTY Index insight we highlighted rally targets in the 24039-24496 zone. The index reached 24589 last week, double-topped this week, then closed the week down at 24008.
The index was ultra-overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the pullback was overdue. This pullback is a buy opportunity.
This insight discusses key support zones to buy and profit taking targets for the rally.

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May 09

Daily Brief India: Siemens Ltd, Eicher Motors, Panache Digilife, Niva Bupa Health Insurance and more

In today’s briefing:

What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?
Telegram from Srinagar | Operation Sindoor – On Ground Update
Siemens Energy India Ltd: Value Unlocking, Demerger
Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis
Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Lockup-Bunch of PE Investors Could Pare Around US$500m Worth of Stock

What Will Remain with Demerged Siemens Ltd?

Post-Demerger, Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) continues with Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, and Mobility, focusing on core segments like automation, electrification, and rail transport.
The company is getting significant orders in each segment with strong tailwind across all segment.
Siemens Limited’s remaining business is projected to grow at a 15% CAGR, supported by strong order backlogs and improved margins.

Telegram from Srinagar | Operation Sindoor – On Ground Update

By Pranav Bhavsar

We interact with local business owners and our channels in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir with an objective to understand the current sentiment on the ground.
Srinagar, Kashmir’s summer capital, remains strategically vital in the current conflict as a military hub and political flashpoint between India and Pakistan.
Local business owners are hopeful that the escalating conflict and the media attention surrounding it will ease by the 10th of May.

Siemens Energy India Ltd: Value Unlocking, Demerger

Siemens is demerging its Energy business into SEIL, focusing on energy solutions and doubling transmission capacity with a INR 3.6 billion investment over 2–3 years.
SEIL’s energy transition initiatives drive growth, with a 29.9% YoY increase in orders. Siemens Ltd.’s Digital Industries faced headwinds but remains optimistic about turnover.
The demerger creates two independent growth engines, with Siemens Ltd. investing ₹4 billion in Smart Infrastructure, positioning both entities for strong future growth.

Panache Digilife : Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Panache DigiLife Limited is an ICT & IoT devices design, manufacturing, distribution and services company.
Company’s accounting policy for non-provisioning of old receivables seems to be aggressive. Poor capital allocation resulted in fragile financial health.
Concentration risk with sales from single customer accounting for 55% of revenue to be major areas of concern.

Niva Bupa Health Insurance IPO Lockup-Bunch of PE Investors Could Pare Around US$500m Worth of Stock