Category

Technical Analysis

Brief Technical Analysis: Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

1. Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

Untitled

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We recommend taking advantage of recent weakness — where applicable — by adding exposure to cyclical Sectors. Today’s recommendations focus on autos, auto parts, and machinery which span the Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors. 

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Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals
  2. Advantest Macro Breakout Cycle

1. Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

Untitled

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We recommend taking advantage of recent weakness — where applicable — by adding exposure to cyclical Sectors. Today’s recommendations focus on autos, auto parts, and machinery which span the Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors. 

2. Advantest Macro Breakout Cycle

Advantest%20for%20sk

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has accelerated in a high momentum move after breaking out from the flat congestive pattern resistance at 2,730. The immediate rise is becoming stretched as the daily RSI pushes into overbought territory (near 80) with risk of a pullback to retrace some recent gains. 

Weekly MACD cycle is confirming a new up cycle.

Buy levels are outlined to accumulate Advantest on weakness. Macro projection implies a 30% rise is in store from the outlined buy support zone.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals
  2. Advantest Macro Breakout Cycle
  3. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster

1. Global Equity Strategy: Overweight Cyclicals

Untitled

Our positive outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains intact and we believe a “buy the dip” strategy is warranted. We recommend taking advantage of recent weakness — where applicable — by adding exposure to cyclical Sectors. Today’s recommendations focus on autos, auto parts, and machinery which span the Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors. 

2. Advantest Macro Breakout Cycle

Advantest%20for%20sk

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has accelerated in a high momentum move after breaking out from the flat congestive pattern resistance at 2,730. The immediate rise is becoming stretched as the daily RSI pushes into overbought territory (near 80) with risk of a pullback to retrace some recent gains. 

Weekly MACD cycle is confirming a new up cycle.

Buy levels are outlined to accumulate Advantest on weakness. Macro projection implies a 30% rise is in store from the outlined buy support zone.

3. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster

Untitled

Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: Global Indexes Are Consolidating, EM Is Breaking Down and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Global Indexes Are Consolidating, EM Is Breaking Down
  2. SOX Bleed into NDX, SPX and Global Tech Playing Out
  3. U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities
  4. SBI Bull Triangle/Perform
  5. Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

1. Global Indexes Are Consolidating, EM Is Breaking Down

Untitled

We remain constructive on global equities as the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE indexes consolidate above their respective 200-day moving averages. On the other hand, the MSCI EM index is breaking below its 200-day moving average and is flirting with a breakdown below 56,000 support (local currency).  We see attractive Opportunities in Manufacturing & Materials in Europe, Japan and China, India, and Taiwan. 

2. SOX Bleed into NDX, SPX and Global Tech Playing Out

We outlined the domino tech breakdown cycle in our SOX Cracks that Would Impact the Global Tech Cycle on April 29 where “semi’s tend to lead the NDX cycle which leads the SPX. These levels are critical components for the broader US equity cycle”. US/China trade break down was simply the catalyst for overbought markets with deteriorating breadth.

SOX short call is rolling into tech and impacting the global tech cycle as we have seen the likes of TSMC, Taiwan tech, Tencent, SEC and SK Hynix all come under intense selling pressure.

We are nearing key levels in the NDX and SPX that would take the global cycle lower and intensify risk aversion.

Asia has sliced through support levels like butter on the back of outflows, tech pressure and our USD bull call.

3. U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

Untitled

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

4. SBI Bull Triangle/Perform

Sbi%20india

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) is gearing up for a rally out of flat congestion that has dominated the range since late 2017 and did not participate in the Nifty’s two recent rally cycles. SBI is expected to not only outperform but stage an impressive absolute rally out of triangulation.

Triangles are often the most powerful breakout chart patterns that are followed by high momentum rallies.

We like buying weakness near 300 support but may start to run out of the gates on the back of the micro bull wedge outlined just above the triangle breakout point.

Upside targets will be upgraded if aggressive upside momentum unfolds.

MACD resistance represents the hurdle mid way through the rally cycle and likely to induce a stall.

5. Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

Untitled

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS. 

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: Advantest Macro Breakout Cycle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. Advantest Macro Breakout Cycle
  2. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster

1. Advantest Macro Breakout Cycle

Advantest%20for%20sk

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has accelerated in a high momentum move after breaking out from the flat congestive pattern resistance at 2,730. The immediate rise is becoming stretched as the daily RSI pushes into overbought territory (near 80) with risk of a pullback to retrace some recent gains. 

Weekly MACD cycle is confirming a new up cycle.

Buy levels are outlined to accumulate Advantest on weakness. Macro projection implies a 30% rise is in store from the outlined buy support zone.

2. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster

Untitled

Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples
  2. SPX and NDX Tactics into Late May
  3. China A50 Fresh Sell Targets and Macro Pivot Support
  4. Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support
  5. U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

Untitled

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

2. SPX and NDX Tactics into Late May

SPX bounce from 2,800 support targeted 2,850-60 which has been met with overhead pivot resistance that is critical to the immediate bias.

Our cycle work implies we could see a choppy rising wedge form into late May with a more negative cycle due in June. We outline trade levels on the short and long side into late May.

NDX 7,730 pivot support break will now act as macro resistance and a clear rejection level with a fade target well below this inflection point. This break shaped global risk as well as joined the underperform camp with transports, DJI, banks, small caps and the SOX (a bigger negative for breadth).

3. China A50 Fresh Sell Targets and Macro Pivot Support

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This is a follow up on our China Game over Support Breaks . After breaking core trendline support, China finds itself in a weaker intermediate cycle that faces a stress test on the macro pivot support at 12,000.

Tactical trade points for support and resistance are outlined as well as bigger strategic break points that would reverse the trend or see a resumption of the rise.

Our tactical base case calls for selling rallies for a test on macro support which will define the higher degree rally cycle (or fresh implosion).

4. Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

Untitled

We believe the S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels — levels we believe will holdTech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau… see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

5. U.S. Equity Strategy: The Tweet Heard ‘Round the World

Untitled

As we write this, the tweet from President Trump regarding an imminent spike in tariffs on Chinese goods has caught financial markets around the world off guard. We believe the reactions are likely just a flash in the pan. This tweet, like many others, should be taken as nothing more than negotiation tactics lifted right out of a chapter from “The Art of the Deal”. We have been subjected to untold Tweets in the last few years and the reactions generally seem to have been about as long-lived as their character count. Despite the noise, the markets remain on a firm footing.  In our Macro Vision publication, we lay out our U.S. equity investment thesis and provide a technical appraisal of the market Sector by Sector, along with attractive investment opportunities within each.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: SOX Bleed into NDX, SPX and Global Tech Playing Out and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. SOX Bleed into NDX, SPX and Global Tech Playing Out
  2. U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities
  3. SBI Bull Triangle/Perform
  4. Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus
  5. Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

1. SOX Bleed into NDX, SPX and Global Tech Playing Out

We outlined the domino tech breakdown cycle in our SOX Cracks that Would Impact the Global Tech Cycle on April 29 where “semi’s tend to lead the NDX cycle which leads the SPX. These levels are critical components for the broader US equity cycle”. US/China trade break down was simply the catalyst for overbought markets with deteriorating breadth.

SOX short call is rolling into tech and impacting the global tech cycle as we have seen the likes of TSMC, Taiwan tech, Tencent, SEC and SK Hynix all come under intense selling pressure.

We are nearing key levels in the NDX and SPX that would take the global cycle lower and intensify risk aversion.

Asia has sliced through support levels like butter on the back of outflows, tech pressure and our USD bull call.

2. U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

Untitled

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

3. SBI Bull Triangle/Perform

Sbi%20india

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) is gearing up for a rally out of flat congestion that has dominated the range since late 2017 and did not participate in the Nifty’s two recent rally cycles. SBI is expected to not only outperform but stage an impressive absolute rally out of triangulation.

Triangles are often the most powerful breakout chart patterns that are followed by high momentum rallies.

We like buying weakness near 300 support but may start to run out of the gates on the back of the micro bull wedge outlined just above the triangle breakout point.

Upside targets will be upgraded if aggressive upside momentum unfolds.

MACD resistance represents the hurdle mid way through the rally cycle and likely to induce a stall.

4. Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

Untitled

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS. 

5. Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

Untitled

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster

1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster

Untitled

Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster
  2. EM Equity Strategy: Remain Overweight China

1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Party Continues – Gold Losing Its Luster

Untitled

Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing.

2. EM Equity Strategy: Remain Overweight China

Untitled

The MSCI EM index continues to develop positively from a price perspective and we expect higher prices ahead. China remains leadership — overweight. At the same time we recommend selectivity in new purchases considering many Chinese equities are extended. In this report we highlight a number of attractive stocks from Chines markets as well as opportunities within Greece, South Africa, India, and Taiwan.

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.



Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In this briefing:

  1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities
  2. SBI Bull Triangle/Perform
  3. Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus
  4. Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities
  5. U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

Untitled

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

2. SBI Bull Triangle/Perform

Sbi%20india

State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) is gearing up for a rally out of flat congestion that has dominated the range since late 2017 and did not participate in the Nifty’s two recent rally cycles. SBI is expected to not only outperform but stage an impressive absolute rally out of triangulation.

Triangles are often the most powerful breakout chart patterns that are followed by high momentum rallies.

We like buying weakness near 300 support but may start to run out of the gates on the back of the micro bull wedge outlined just above the triangle breakout point.

Upside targets will be upgraded if aggressive upside momentum unfolds.

MACD resistance represents the hurdle mid way through the rally cycle and likely to induce a stall.

3. Developed Markets Chart Book: Europe in Focus

Untitled

This report highlights actionable set ups from predominately European, developed markets, and is supportive of our view that Europe is bottoming, a viewpoint that remains far from consensus. Within Europe, we put a spotlight on Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40. Today’s recommendations are primarily from cyclical Sectors, however European Consumer Staples also exhibits bottoming RS. 

4. Opportunities in European & Japanese Equities

Untitled

As global equity markets pull back amid the U.S./China tariff saga we continue to believe this is an attractive time to add exposure. This view is supported technically with all major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) pulling back to their respective 200-day moving averages. In this report we highlight important technical levels across global markets and highlight actionable opportunities from a bottoms-up perspective within Europe (attractive pullback opportunity on the STOXX Europe 600 index) and Japan, including stocks within Financials, Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing.

5. U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

Untitled

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

Get Straight to the Source on Smartkarma

Smartkarma supports the world’s leading investors with high-quality, timely, and actionable Insights. Subscribe now for unlimited access, or request a demo below.