Category

Technical Analysis

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump’s prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
  • We reiterated this in yesterday’s pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting “we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity.”
  • Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness


S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

By Joe Jasper

  • DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
  • The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
  • Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
  • Most recent/highest conviction “buy-the-dip” call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
  • Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

By Joe Jasper

  • Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but…
  • …we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
  • Looking for support on the S&P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
  • We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
  • Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

By Joe Jasper

  • The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
  • We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
  • Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal


Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside. PHLX Semis $SOXX With a Bullish 5-Month Reversal

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
  • We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
  • Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Michael Green and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Michael Green, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management


Michael Green, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management

By Alpha Exchange

  • Mike Green explains how leveraged products on MSTR resemble a short straddle in their rebalancing requirements
  • The two times leveraged long products, MSTU and MSTX, are unique due to their large size and underlying asset volatility, creating potential volume amplifying feedback loops
  • The leveraged complex has contributed to the large premium of MSTR to the value of its bitcoin holdings, impacting ETFs forced to use options market due to limited leverage from swap providers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
  • Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled “Buy the Pullback,” and last week’s Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled “Buy the Pullback Again” 
  • We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500’s multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
  • Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled “Buy the Pullback,” and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it’s time to buy the pullback again.
  • We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).

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