Category

Technical Analysis

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 3,500 Is Where We Transition

SPX 3,500 Is Where We Transition

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze.
  • Meeting/Exceeding key downside targets in oversold (RSI’s due to bottom soon) Asia and Europe into an exhaustive down leg. 
  • October transition: We favor overlapping our long basket into early to mid-October new lows. NKY, ASX, RTY layered longs and USD sell is on deck (USD front run).

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MSCI ACWI Ex-US and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports — Bounce Potential

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports — Bounce Potential

By Joe Jasper

  • Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
  • Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
  • There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Risk Pivots and Color into Late September and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Risk Pivots and Color into Late September
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Risk Pivots and Color into Late September

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Risk pivots and action points into our late September capitulation cycle with a granular look at intraday SPX, NDX and DXY wedge patterns. DJI new low leads.
  • September 27/28 cycle date with a secondary timeline in early October. Need final touches into new lows for a turn signal. 27-28 capitulation that leads to a key low.
  • Impulsive yield rise fits with a blow off yield move toward 4.19% projection with DXY to 115.40 and an SPX crack to a new low (3,530 once below 3,650).

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
  • We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&P 500 and $269 on QQQ
  • With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Top Short Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Top Short Update
  • RTY Support Inflection Break
  • Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Asia Top Short Update

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our top short bets in Asia (HSI, Taiwan, Korea) show risk of breaking to new lows. The RTY breaks gives the bear trade another leg down.
  • Our relative perform longs (STI and SET 50) are due to drift to support but holding up well. USD is breaking to new highs with momentum.
  • Asian markets that have held up are now at risk of late-stage capitulation – ASX, Nifty and NKY.

RTY Support Inflection Break

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our short group.
  • RTY below 1,775 targets 1,710 and 1,690. NDX increased bear pressure to crack 11,500/400 support and reach for that key 11k macro support level.
  • SPX 3,750 pressure test. RTY implies we crack 3,750 and reach for the June low. 3,500 is our new low PT then bull probe in late September/early October.

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

By Joe Jasper

  • Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
  • Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one — Brazil.
  • Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent Nearing Our Bear Target to Reverse from Short to Long and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Nearing Our Bear Target to Reverse from Short to Long

Tencent Nearing Our Bear Target to Reverse from Short to Long

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent short from 395 is nearing our 282/264 target zone where we see a low to reverse to long as bull divergence matures.
  • Tencent 282/264 buy zone (cycle low due in early October) targets 335 once back above 310.
  • MACD bull divergence is more constructive and warns of an upside surprise in 2023 (after a Q1 decline) to challenge 395/400 macro pivot resistance.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD/MYR Red Flag Above 4.50 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD/MYR Red Flag Above 4.50
  • Watch RTY Trigger for NDX New Lows

USD/MYR Red Flag Above 4.50

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD/MYR breakout above 4.50 targets 4.66 and 4.80 and will see a correlation bleed in Asia compared to a topping DXY zone at 111.25/50.
  • This USD/MYR red flag has the potential to see accelerated USD gains in Asia as risk aversion dominates trade into late September.
  • Asian FX and particularly SE Asian FX at risk. USD/THB targets 38 and the IDR is now vulnerable.

Watch RTY Trigger for NDX New Lows

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Call to re cycle shorts at targets on September 12/13 and buy the USD at DXY 108 is paying off. Use an uptick early this week to add to shorts.
  • NDX remains our top US short but an inflection below RTY 1,775 pivot support will increase downside conviction for a hard NDX bear press to 11,500 and 11,000.
  • SPX 3,750 pressure test expected, if below will increase odds of a new low. Monitor DXY 111.25/50 for an early warning dollar top.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Xinyi Solar and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.
  • Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.
  • I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Sell Resistances Post Plunge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Sell Resistances Post Plunge

Sell Resistances Post Plunge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX, DAX, Asia short levels met ahead of the CPI print. Today’s insight focuses on near resistance points to sell into after the conviction bear turn and reiterates downside targets.
  • Game plan was to short strength Monday/Tuesday and used pivot support/trailing stops to unwind some long exposure.
  • Call to buy the USD on this pullback at DXY 108 worked well with a focus on Euro, ZAR, and weaker Asian FX.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

By Joe Jasper

  • Key supports that we highlighted in last week’s Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
  • We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning’s hotter-than-expected CPI report.
  • As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market — something we noted throughout late-July and August.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Top Zone to Lead Risk Turn and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Top Zone to Lead Risk Turn

USD Top Zone to Lead Risk Turn

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD dip/rise into overshoot zone as the green back begins to feel out a topping zone. The dollar typically tops a few weeks ahead of and equity troughing cycle.
  • DXY met our 110.50-111 tactical top target where we reduced overdone USD longs and placed a short bet (AUD and SGD) for a dip/rally.
  • Expect USD splinters to appear in coming weeks as the DXY top near the 111.25 projection if we hold 107.50 now.

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