Category

Technical Analysis

Apr 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&P 500
  • Since late-February, we’ve discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
  • 4920-4950 is now support near last week’s lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Silver Measured Move to 35.50 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
  • US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
  • Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

By Joe Jasper

  • A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
  • Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
  • ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: KWEB Attractive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

By Douglas Busch

  • KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
  • Toyota>Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
  • JD>BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

By Joe Jasper

  • We’ve discussed for months that we’ll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
  • Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
  • Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.

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Apr 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

By Joe Jasper

  • The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
  • Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
  • We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.

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Apr 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
  • Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
  • Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.

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Mar 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).
  • To be clear, we aren’t calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.
  • Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.

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Mar 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished

This Bull Run Is Nowhere Near Finished

By Cam Hui

  • A review of the structure of the stock market makes us long-term bullish.
  • Growth stocks, as proxied by the NASDAQ 100, are weakening but a rotating correction is evident as value stocks are taking up the leadership mantle.
  • That said, the S&P 500 is short-term extended and can pull back at any time, with initial support at about 5000 and strong secondary support at about 4800.

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Mar 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
  • Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we’d welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
  • Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials

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