Category

Technical Analysis

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS


Russell 2000 Testing 1.5+ Year Resistance; Downgrading Communications; Steel Buys $NUE $STLD $ZEUS

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains in “lockout rally” mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings.
  • We have discussed this on a weekly basis since 11/21/23. Still no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into year-end and early 2024.
  • We highlight buys in Steel: NUE, STLD, RS, WOR, TMST, ZEUS, LatAm Banks: ITUB, BSBR, BBD, BAP, BCH, Industrials: ITT, FSS, SPXC, ATS, KAI, CR, BRC, SXI, and HSC

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

By Joe Jasper

  • Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering “breakaway gaps” and what appeared to be an ongoing “lockout rally”
  • All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
  • Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More


Buying Financials in Europe/UK; Buy Highlighted: $EUFN, Allianz, Banco Santander, Wise PLC, and More

By Joe Jasper

  • Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to European/UK Financial stocks at current levels.
  • The EURO STOXX 50 has been on an absolute tear since we discussed the bullish implications of a break above 4200, and it now breaking above 2+year resistance at 4400-4415.
  • Financials are one of the leading Sectors within Europe/UK, and banks, insurance, and financial services are all attractive. We highlight several of our favorite names to buy at current levels

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals


Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

By Joe Jasper

  • Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
  • The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
  • Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • In our October 26, 2023 Int’l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
  • Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
  • We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

By Joe Jasper

  • Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
  • New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
  • Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers


Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

By Joe Jasper

  • The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM
  • Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.
  • Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
  • We discussed in our prior Int’l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
  • Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Just Another Counter-Trend Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports


Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
  • Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that’s what happened
  • Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a “decisive” breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
  • On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
  • MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.

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