TMT/Internet

• The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
• Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
• The key stocks mentioned in this regular series include: Mobvista (1860 HK), Xtep International (1368 HK), Onewo (2602 HK), and Bonny International Holding (1906 HK).

• During yesterday’s Option expiration day, Tencent (700 HK) experienced an intra-day swing of 4.1%.
• Trading in the afternoon oscillated around the prominent 500 strike level. Around 66% of calls and 2% of puts expired in the money.
• Volume was lower than in the preceding days; a total of 38 million shares were traded, with the morning session accounting for 53% of the volume.

• Last night, the S&P announced that with the deletion of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) from the S&P Midcap 400, Entegris Inc (ENTG US) would replace it.
• Entegris is a company providing Materials Solutions and Purity Solutions to the semiconductor industry (they sell to circuit/memory cos, SPE mfrs, gas/chem cos, wafer growers, etc.
• Because of how this company is being added, it is a bit interesting. It will be effective Wednesday 5 March at the close with US$1.2bn to buy.

• In our last insight covering  China Mobile (941 HK) we said the stock was overbought. It made a sharp pullback last week that may turn into a good BUY opportunity.
• Support levels to buy range from 79.1 to 76.4, assuming this pullback is a buy-the-dip scenario, something we will discuss in this insight.
• If the stock resumes its rally, the next WEEKLY profit targets will be between 82.64 and 84.4.

• Four former, long term Intel board members yesterday warned against any plans to have TSMC take over Intel Foundry, their second time weighing in on the future of the company
• They posit that TSMC is under pressure from the US Administration with Taiwan security being used as a bargaining chip
• They’re not wrong in their assertions that it would be a terrible idea, both for the US and for TSMC, but these are days where anything can happen. Let’s see

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp
• In the US, the second estimate for Q4/24 real GDP was unchanged from the advance estimate at an annualised rate of 2.3% q-o-q, driven by a 4.2% increase (unchanged) in consumer spending. That said, the core PCE price index was revised upwards to 2.7% (from 2.5% in the advance estimate).
• Full-year real GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.8% y-o-y (vs. 2.9% in 2023). Separately, durable goods orders rose 3.1% m-o-m in January (2.0% e / -1.8% p).

• Nanya Tech Soared in February on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News
• Nanya’s Custom HBM Strategy & the Positive DRAM Market Outlook
• Memory Monitor Universe: SK Hynix & Micron Still Have Strong FY2025E Expected Growth; Nanya Tech Still Negative

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• RaaS Research Group interviewed CEO Michael Ivanchenko post the H1 FY25 results.

• Q1-3 FY3/25 results underlined Restar’s positive sales growth profile (+11.2% YoY) driven by its roll-up M&A strategy, a strong demand environment for cameras and PC-related products in consumer products, and smartphone demand driving EMS activity YoY.
• However, headwinds persist in the form of continued delay in demand recovery from the Industrial sector, a sales mix lowering gross margin, and negative impact from a strengthening Japanese yen.
• We have not seen concrete evidence of cost savings from post-merger integration activities. 

• Kinatico Ltd (ASX:KYP) is a ‘Know Your People’ regtech company providing workforce compliance monitoring and management technology and services.
• The company has reported H1 FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $2.3m, up 17% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and 10% ahead of our forecast.
• Reported EBITDA was $2.1m, up 9% on the pcp.

• We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
• We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
• The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.  

• STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
• The methodology for constituent selection for this index was revised yesterday. These revisions will influence the ADDs/DELs for the March 2025 review which is to be announced soon.
• In this insight, we have presented our updated expectations for the new methodology.

• CEO is clearly saying that demand is growing faster than expected and has visibility into 2025-26 revenues (we have a fairly good line of sight of investment in data centers)
• Models are getting better and using up to 100x more computing power (ie chain of thought and reinforcement learning). The AI market is today Consumer, tomorrow Agentic, later on Physical.  
• The stock is not expensive at 30x FY26 EPS and 24x FY27 EPS. Get over it.

• According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.  
• My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
• I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?

• Dassault Systèmes CEO highlights European automaker struggles and growth readiness in US and Asia in January 2025.
• SK Hynix achieves impressive 70% yield in HBM4 testing, signaling advancements in memory technology.
• China’s tungsten export controls cause market price fluctuations, disrupting global supply chains. Foxconn partners with Sonora in Mexico for innovative smart city project.

• Quick Commerce offers infinite TAM with rapid metro adoption, but requires endless investment in faster delivery times to remain competitive.
• Delivery partners bear the operational burden, working long hours for modest pay while tech stacks across competitors remain largely similar.
• Despite investor excitement, QC margins remain elusive due to high competition, homogeneous offerings, and limited pricing power compared to food delivery.

• In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in January and February 2025.
• There were 37 companies in the Korean stock market that announced share buybacks in the past two months. On average, the share buyback announcements represented 2.3% of outstanding shares.
• Some of the notable share buybacks by Korean companies in the past two months include Samsung Electronics, Celltrion, Hyundai Mobis, and INFOvine.

• Dassault Systèmes has agreed to acquire Contentserv, a provider of AI-driven product information management platforms, for EUR220m, enhancing Centric’s PLM offerings for consumer goods industries.   
• Centric aims to reach EUR500m in revenue by 2028, with goals of becoming a EUR1bn brand. Contentserv is expected to boost Centric’s revenue by 25%, contributing to its growth plans.  
• We deem the integration of Contentserv into Centric will occur gradually. Additionally, Centric will benefit from 3D Universes, an AI-based environment designed to leverage legacy 3D designs and PLM data.

• Cognex is a leader in machine vision, providing ruggedized cameras and software for automation in manufacturing and logistics environments
• Cognex’s products fall into four categories: Guide, Gauge, Inspect, and ID
• ID includes Dataman products for reading barcodes and optical character recognition

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• ACMR is a wafer fabrication equipment company that sells tools to semiconductor fabrication plants
• The company operates in a sector dominated by oligopolies with strong competitive advantages
• The symbiotic relationship between FABS and WFE makers creates barriers to entry for new competitors, providing long-term stability for the industry and companies like ACMR.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• This Insight analyses Tencent (700 HK)tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
• These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Diagonal call spreads are popular, many self-financing (0% premium). This strategy can play the 18 March earnings date.
• Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders see limits to the upside. The most bullish trade suggests a peak of up to 710 HKD by the end of March.

• The company filed the required SEC filings right on the deadline of 25 February 2025, thus has avoided a Nasdaq delisting and consequently a deletion from s&p500 and other indices.
• The security continues to be a contender for Nasdaq-100 inclusion at the December 2025 annual review.
• The stock is up ~21.7% pre-market following the SEC filings.

• iPhone 16e starting at $599, positioned as entry level but not bare bones
• Apple targeting customers who hold onto phones for a long time with best battery life in any iPhone
• Modem C1 upgrade seen as key contributor to improved battery life, but was not highlighted in launch, raising questions about performance quality

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Tencent (700 HK) stock options expiring on Thursday, February 27, show a concentration of approximately 40,000 open contracts at the 500 strike price, currently at the money.
• The open interest at the 500 strike may increase volatility and trading activity near expiry if the stock price hovers around 500, possibly leading to amplified intraday price swings.
• At the last monthly expiry in January the stock experienced intraday price swings of 2.5%.

• Lite On Signals for Continued Strength in Cloud/AIOT Ahead of Upcoming Nvidia Results
• Lite On’s 1Q25E Outlook Was Positive and Did Not Indicate A Near-Term Slowdown
• Industry Take-Aways — Still No Signs of Acceleration on PC/Consumer… However Signals Cloud/AIoT Demand Healthy

• Trump administration wants TSMC to partner with Intel to strengthen US ties, potentially impacting global server market.
• WNC to unveil new 5G and AI connectivity solutions at MWC 2025 Barcelona, boosting industry innovation and technology.
• Vivo aims for 30% sales growth in Taiwan by 2025 with V50 launch, while Tata plans to sign 10 MoUs in semiconductor sector.

• Nvidia has been the unrivaled darling of the AI boom, establishing itself as a portfolio must-have, and is now the second-most valuable company in the world. 
• Wafer-Thin AI chips are the company’s biggest earnings driver, but Nvidia is growing in other high-margin segments too, including software, gaming, and automotive.
• Here’s what makes this company important, what to expect next from the tech giant, and – most interestingly – what Nvidia’s stock is really worth.

• NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will release its earnings at the end of today’s US session. This insight offers a quick view of possible support and resistance for derivatives traders.
• The stock is currently mildly oversold, aroud 50% probability of reversal according to our quantitative PRICE model and about 78% probability of reversal according to our quantitative TIME model.
• WEEKLY TACTICAL TARGETS: buy below 125 (with room to go to 92 if the earnings are disappointing) and sell above 147 (the limit should be 161).

• A high hurdle for OP in Q1 – Q1 FY9/25 results showed normalisation of OP growth as the one-off impact from a large order for AD (autonomous driving) / ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems came off compared to Q1 FY9/24.
• As a result, Toyo Corporation reported an operating loss, normalising to more ordinary performance for Q1 when OP tends to be weak due to seasonality.
• Notwithstanding the seasonal loss, the Q1 FY9/25 results were in line with the company’s initial plan. 

• Singapore’s Mid-to-Small Cap group averaged S$40 million daily trading turnover, with Technology stocks contributing 35% over 8 weeks.
• UMS, CSE Global, and Valuetronics ranked among the top 10 Mid-to-Small Cap stocks with highest net institutional inflow.
• PC Partner Group anticipates FY24 net profit of at least HK$250 million, up from HK$60 million in FY23.

• Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
• Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
• There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.

• Back on the 19th December 2024, Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, to take out its pseudo dual-listed twin, Pentamaster International (1665 HK).
• The Offer Price was HK$1.00/share – including a HK$0.07/share dividend – a 45.3% premium to last close, but arguably more like a 61% premium to undisturbed. 
• The Court Meeting is the 28th February. Shares are down 15%+ in recent days. On no news.  Not a great look. 

• Yesterday morning, Prosus announced the acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway for $4.3bn.
• Naspers and Prosus sold off sharply on the news, ending the day down 7.7% and 7.8%, respectively.
• Naspers’ discount widened by 2.8 percentage points to 44.2% and Prosus’ discount widened by 3.1 percentage points to 39.8%.

• Trump Adminstration Gearing Up to Further Restrict China’s Access to Chip Technology — Could Restrict Servicing of Existing Equipment
• Foxconn and Honda: Could This Be a New Alliance in EV Manufacturing?
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will TSMC Work on Intel Foundry Services? There Are Three Paradoxes… 

• Today, investors received shares in the new SanDisk spin-off.

• Shares are currently slightly up due to buying pressure ahead of the stock being added to the S&P 600 index effective tomorrow.

• SanDisk is trading at 1.1x revenue which is a reasonable valuation (Xioxia, Sandisk’s JV partner, trades at 1.3x LTM revenue).

• Dozn is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in March 2025. The company plans to offer 2.5 million shares in this IPO.
• The IPO price range is from 10,250 won to 12,500 won per share and the offering amount ranges from 26.2 billion won to 31.2 billion won.
• Founded in 2017, Dozn is emerging as a prominent business-to-business (B2B) digital solution service provider in Korea.

• Xiaomi has had a remarkable rally, ranking at the 99th percentile for all previous 1-month price changes.
• Implied vols have surged along with price with 1M, 2M and 3M implied vols all ranking above the 95th over the past 4 years.  
• We recommend how to manage risk and positioning given the extreme price and implied vol dynamics.

• The Nasdaq-100 INDEX started to pull back last week, this is the second week down in a row and the index is very oversold according to our tactical model.
• The DAILY model signals extreme oversold conditions, a reversal is imminent. The WEEKLY model is also oversold but still leaves room for further downside…
• A possible scenario is a DAILY bounce (1 or 2 days up) followed by more WEEKLY downside (another 1-2 weeks down). This insight wil analyze only the WEEKLY model.

• Twilio Inc. presented a compelling performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing its evolution and strategic progress.
• The company reported $1.195 billion in revenue, marking an 11% increase year-over-year, achieving consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.
• This quarter was particularly notable as it was Twilio’s first to achieve GAAP operating profitability, ahead of its initial target, underscoring the firm’s focus on balanced growth and profitability.

• NetEase reported C4Q24 rev., GAAP op. profit and GAAP net inc. in line/3.9%/27% vs. our est., and in line/9.3%/27% vs. cons. 
• We see NetEase entering a new phase of product-driven revenue growth, driven by rebounding mobile and accelerating PC game growth;
• We raise TP to US$122 and keep NTES as our TOP PICK in gaming sector.

• Tencent (700 HK) has surged 33.5% over the past 30 days, with its spot price outpacing the slow adjustment of call option strikes, shifting most contracts from out-of-the-money to in-the-money.
• The current concentration of in-the-money calls hints at active trading and potential strike adjustments ahead, amplified by upcoming events like the 19 March earnings.
• This analysis features a novel animated chart of option open interest distribution offering a dynamic visual of market behavior.

• The vote on Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital’s HK$1.00 for Pentamaster International (1665 HK) is on 28 February. Over the last two days, the gross spread has increased to 8.7%.
• There are valid arguments for the vote to pass or fail. Despite the IFA’s assertions that the offer is fair and reasonable, it is not and will leave minorities short-changed. 
• While there is no visible opposition, the share price indicates that an activist could have secured a blocking stake (3.34% of shares, which does not require HKEx disclosure). 

• With the review cutoff done, there could be two changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March.
• Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and ZTE Corp H (763 HK) are expected to replace China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) and China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK). 
• ZTE Corp H (763 HK) has broken out to new highs (possibly on short covering) while China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK) continues to sell off.

• With the review cutoff done, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs in March.
• Cambricon Technologies, Guotai Junan Securities and China United Network could replace Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, CGN Power and Luzhou Laojiao in the ETFs.
• Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is expected to be added to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March, so there should be inflows for the A-shares and H-shares.

• TSMC: +17.2% Premium; Wait for Lower Levels Before Going Long
• UMC: -1.9% Discount; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level
• ASE: -0.6% Discount; Discount is Opportunity to Long the Spread

• Global EV sales in 2024 were strong, with forecasts for 2025 looking promising as well, showcasing the growth of the electric vehicle market.
• Asus and Gigabyte secure large AI server orders from Nvidia, highlighting efforts to boost US manufacturing and strengthen partnerships in the tech industry.
• iPhone 16e price hints at a move away from the budget market, indicating a potential shift in Apple’s pricing strategy for future phone releases.

• Informatica Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, reflecting a period of significant transition and mixed performance.
• The company is deeply engaged in its strategic shift towards a cloud-only, consumption-driven business model, which presents both opportunities and challenges.
• On the positive side, Informatica has achieved notable progress with its cloud subscription business.

• This Australian/UK Company designs and manufactures proprietary thin, flat supercapacitors and energy management systems.
• These have very high-power density and high energy storage capacity in a space-efficient prismatic package.
• Superconductors are used in portable and small-scale electronic devices, as well as in larger applications such as automotive and renewable energy. 

• Soluna recently announced two significant deals to grow its business.
• The first deal is an expansion of its partnership with Bit Digital (BTBT), while the second deal is a successful exit of Project Kati from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) planning phase.
• On February 18, Soluna announced that it had successfully exited the ERCOT planning phase for its Project Kati, which is expected to unlock up to 166 MW of new Bitcoin hosting and AI JV opportunities.

• SaverOne continues to expand internationally and has had moderate success launching pilots in the EU market.
• A key for the company in 2025 will be converting many pilots into full commercial deployments and substantially increasing its installed base.
• We have a better estimate of the total outstanding shares (roughly 675 million) as a result of the company’s latest registration statement.

• This Insight analyses Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
• These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Strategies are mostly bullish, and exclusively long volatility despite implied volatility in its 98th percentile.
• Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders expect the rally, driven by its own momentum, to peak. One trade suggests a ceiling of 70 by mid-year. 

• In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
• SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
• Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% – 99% in 2024.

• In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Applied Materials demonstrated strong performance, achieving record revenue levels that surpassed previous highs.
• The company announced that advanced semiconductors are a significant driver of this growth, supported by trends in technology such as artificial intelligence (AI), which are reshaping the global economy.
• AI, identified as a major transformative technology, has supported approximately a 20% year-over-year growth in global semiconductor sales in 2024, with projections suggesting this market could exceed $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

• Mixed bag with narrowing participation, widening distribution of returns but with the highest total option volume since November.
• Option volumes over the past 2 weeks are 80% higher than the prior 3-month average.
• Implied vols weaker across the board with 9 of 11 sectors seeing softer implieds.

• China announced game approval for the February batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Of the companies that we are monitoring, Netease, Zengame got one approval each.

• CyberArk’s 2024 financial performance and strategic initiatives demonstrate a mix of robust growth and cautious optimism for the future.
• The company achieved significant milestones, notably surpassing $1 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) and total revenue for the first time.
• This growth was fueled in part by successful integration and performance of recent acquisitions, Venafi and Zilla Security, which expanded CyberArk’s footprint in the identity security market.

• Palo Alto Networks’ performance in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 highlights both ongoing strengths and emerging challenges intrinsic to its market position and operating landscape.
• The company reported total revenue of $2.26 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year increase, outperforming its top-line expectations.
• This growth was evenly distributed across multiple sectors, with particular strength in subscription services, which saw a 20% rise, underscoring the firm’s robust service-driven revenue stream.

• Waystar Holding, a provider of mission-critical cloud software for healthcare organizations, priced its public offering of 20M shares of common stock.
• Key selling stockholders, including EQT, CPPIB and Bain Capital offered 20M shares at $40.00 per share and cut their Waystar Holding stakes.  
• Waystar Holding will not receive any proceeds from the sale of the shares by the selling stockholders. The company reported revenue growth of ~19% in FY24.  

• Datadog reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, revealing a strong performance characterized by a 25% year-over-year revenue increase to $738 million, surpassing the high end of its guidance range.
• The company highlighted robust growth in customer adoption, reporting a rise in its total customer base to approximately 30,000, with significant contributions from customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR).
• Notably, Datadog marked the expansion of its key products with infrastructure monitoring contributing over $1.25 billion in ARR and both log management and end-to-end application performance management (APM) exceeding $750 million each.

• Global Payments Inc.’s recent earnings call highlighted both the opportunities and challenges the company faces as it seeks to reposition itself in the competitive landscape of commerce solutions.
• During the fourth quarter and throughout 2024, the company reported solid financial and operational outcomes, underscoring a strategic transformation aimed at long-term growth and efficiency.
• From a performance perspective, Global Payments delivered adjusted net revenue growth of 6% for the full year and achieved a record adjusted operating margin, with earnings per share rising by 11%.

• In line with our forecast, Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) replaces L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
• L&T Technology Services (LTTS IN) is also being excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March. Open interest is ~900k shares and there will be unwinding.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stocks. Impact increases to 1-2 days of delivery volume.

• There will be 5 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the March rebalance. There is one surprise for us with Synagistics being added.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.74bn (US$482m). 4 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is an add to the HSIII, Hang Seng TECH Index and HSCI. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will take place in May.

• Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date
• REA Group Ltd (REA AU) rolls over as Costar Group (CSGP US) bets big on key rival Domain Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).
• Macromill (3978 JP)‘s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.

• It is a paradox US President wanted to make the US the number one semiconductor manufacturing country but is very likely unable to change the existing environment in the US.
• Another paradox is that a foreign company must obtain approval from the relevant US authorities before transferring control of the specific US company, which may not be feasible.
• It raises the third paradox that a Taiwanese company would need to operate an existing US entity with their company’s expertise under different cost conditions.  

• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) announced a non-binding proposal from Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.20, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$3.12 (20 February).
• The bid follows CoStar’s acquisition of a 16.9% stake in Domain on 20 February. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU)‘s support is crucial for its success.  
• While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the offer is light compared to peer multiples. Nine is evaluating the offer and will likely push for improved terms.

• I tally 58 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Four new deals discussed this week: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Tam Jai International (2217 HK), and PEC Ltd. (PEC SP).
• Key updates/news took place on: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK),Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), and Proto Corp (4298 JP).

• There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.
• We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) should be added in May.
• We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.

• Bilibili (BILI) reported C4Q24 revenue and GAAP operating profit in line, 87% vs. our estimates and in line, 130% vs. consensus. 
• We see BILI’s content strategy to be working to drive higher and better traffic, benefiting the ads business. 
• We BUY and raised our TP to US$24 awaiting further details on game pipeline. The stock trading at 2025 PE of 31x.

• AppLovin’s financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicates a pivotal shift in its operational focus and growth strategy.
• Over the quarter, total revenue increased by 44% year-over-year to $1.37 billion, fueled significantly by an expanded advertising business that brought in $999 million in revenue.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA surged by 78% to $848 million, maintaining a healthy margin of 62%.

• Pegasystems, a leader in software solutions for customer engagement and operational efficiency, demonstrated a robust performance in its fiscal year 2024.
• The company reached its strategic milestone of becoming a “Rule of 40” company, reflecting balanced growth and profitability.
• This achievement highlights the successful execution of its transition strategy from a traditional sales model to a subscription-based cloud business.

• BIDU reported C4Q24 top line, non-GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income in-line, (22%) and (7.0%) vs. our est. and (3.7%), (24%) and in line vs. cons. 
• While monetization on a largely in-house app repertoire can ensure AI revenue to start kicking in in C2H25, we are concerned on the size of this revenue, 
• We maintain our SELL but raise TP to US$80 to reflect a short-term trading opportunity around AI monetization.

• SK Hynix CEO remains bullish on semiconductor industry growth, highlighting new opportunities amidst challenges like DeepSeek.
• Oppo forges ahead with release of Find N5 foldable phone, undeterred by market slowdown in pursuit of growth and innovation.
• EU greenlights funds for Infineon’s Dresden fab in chip incentive effort, signaling continued support for semiconductor sector. Samsung exec receives sentence for leaking 18nm DRAM tech to CXMT, highlighting importance of protecting intellectual property.

• Confluent, Inc. exhibited several key strengths and challenges in its recent financial performance.
• The company’s subscription revenue for the fiscal year grew by 24% to $250.6 million, driven by a 38% increase in Confluent Cloud revenue and a 10% growth in Confluent Platform revenue.
• This reflects continued strong demand for enterprise-grade data streaming solutions, particularly in regulated industries.

• Tyler Technologies’ fourth-quarter results reflect a period of strong financial performance, characterized by significant growth and expansion across its key operational pillars.
• The company experienced 12.5% revenue increase, largely spurred by a 21.9% jump in subscription revenues, particularly within their SaaS offerings which saw close to 23% growth.
• This rise in subscription income underscores a strategic pivot towards cloud-based solutions, which remained a focal point in Tyler’s strategy, evident by accelerated SaaS adoption and a reduction in on-premise license revenues.

• BlackLine, a cloud-based platform for finance and accounting professionals, reported its Q4 2024 earnings with mixed performance metrics.
• The company achieved 9% revenue growth despite the adverse impact of a strong U.S. dollar, which added currency headwinds.
• Non-GAAP operating margin was recorded at 18%, and the revenue renewal rate showed improvement, positioning at 96%—a significant metric in customer retention and satisfaction.

• Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, outlining a strategic focus on driving commercial excellence, targeting growth vectors, and enhancing profitability.
• The company reported overall revenue growth for 2024 and noted that its growth trajectory is set to accelerate in 2025.
• In 2024, FIS reported a revenue growth rate between 3% to 4%, slightly below the company’s initial expectations due to one-time items affecting the quarter.

• GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent challenges in its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.
• On the positive side, the fourth quarter slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company’s revenue guidance, achieving approximately $1.83 billion, although this was a minor 1% decline compared to the same quarter in the prior year.
• The company also reported a significant milestone, as it generated over $1 billion in adjusted free cash flow, exceeding its target and marking robust performance despite industry headwinds.

• IAC’s recent earnings outlined significant changes and challenges, highlighting both strategic adjustments and the impact of previous business decisions.
• The company has faced considerable difficulties in two of its principal businesses: Angi Inc. and Dotdash Meredith.
• For Angi Inc., the shift from a previous $260 million EBITDA to just $35 million was a primary concern.

• IPG Photonics, a global leader in laser technology, reported its fourth-quarter earnings reflecting a nuanced blend of strategic planning and ongoing challenges.
• For the quarter, IPG Photonics recorded revenues at the higher end of its guidance, amounting to $234 million, a slight sequential improvement but a year-over-year decline of 22%.
• This decline was attributed primarily to weak performance in key application areas such as welding, cutting, and marking, amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape and increased competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers, in laser cutting systems.

• In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
• Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
• Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 

• Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index and HSCI Index (among others) post market close today. 
• The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$35bn (US$4.5bn) with big impact in a lot of stocks.
• Capping will lead to most inflows to Meituan (3690 HK) while the largest outflows will be from Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). 

• Liang Wanfang became a celebrity overnight, with visitors from all over Guangdong coming to pay their respects
• Liang has been praised for his contributions to China’s tech sector, surpassing competitors and boosting national pride
• China’s tech sector has faced challenges, including regulatory crackdowns and decreased foreign investment, leading to a shift towards state-backed funding and increased risk for entrepreneurs.

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• TSMC: +22.2% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Fresh Short of Spread
• UMC: 0% Premium (Parity) — Massive Increase in ADR Headroom
• ChipMOS: +0.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels; Earnings Ahead

• Samsung Life isn’t getting a boost from Samsung Fire, so they need to stay focused on managing equity to maintain their K-ICS ratio.
• They’ll use capital securities issuance as a quick fix but must also monitor their Samsung Electronics stake, a major asset, to manage the situation effectively.
• Samsung Electronics will likely focus on dividends over buybacks. Watch for a pair trade setup between common and preferred shares, favoring long positions on preferreds.

• Hong Kong’s secular bull market continues this year with record buying from mainland investors through the Southbound Connect platform.
• AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) announced a positive profit alert of of 150% increase in profit for 2024.  The AI, phone and auto segments saw value content increases.
• Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) is well-positioned to cater to China’s increasing demand for locally designed and produced chips, especially in the EV, smart home appliances and wearables industries.

• Amazon.com reported a strong fourth quarter for 2024, with a revenue of $187.8 billion, reflecting a year-over year growth of 10%.
• Notably, this growth was primarily driven by the company’s strategic focus on expanding its product selection, competitive pricing, and enhanced delivery services, which significantly boosted customer engagement and unit sales, especially in the North American and International segments.
• The company’s operating income also saw a substantial improvement, reaching $21.2 billion, marking a 61% increase from the previous year, further supported by effective cost management and productivity improvements throughout its distribution network.

• Softbank’s investment in Arm, valued at around USD 148 billion, is its new NAV driver, after its 300% rally post its IPO.
• Despite an ongoing share buyback and an LTV near 12.9%, Softbank is still trading around a 59% discount to its net asset value. 
• Softbank looks like a good proxy for investing in Arm and being long Softbank and Short Arm looks like reasonable risk/reward at current levels. 

• After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; 
• Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI’s monetization future in China. Alibaba’s vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;
• Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. 

• Costar Group (CSGP US) bought a 16.9% stake in Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) yesterday at A$4.2/share in cash. That is a 34.6% premium to the last close.
• Then, Costar Group (CSGP US) made a non-binding indicative proposal to buy all the Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) shares it did not own at A$4.2/share.
• Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) owns just over 60% of Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) and should move higher on the offer.

• Honda-Nissan merger and Renault-Geely alliance shake up auto industry landscape, causing speculation and uncertainty.
• AI technology leading to increased demand for edge computing and device upgrades due to affordable costs and improved efficiency.
• Liquid-cooled fast charging technology set to revolutionize EV charging by 2025, allowing for ultrafast charging speeds. Tesla’s India factory plans criticized by Trump. Grok 3 drives spike in AI server demand.

• Carving out IFS & taking it private is the most likely outcome for Intel. However, it’s complicated by the SCIP deals and restrictions attached to the CHIPS money.  
• Intel Products Group most likely stays with Intel, maintaining the iconic brand and doubling down on efficiency and innovation. I don’t think it gets sold. 
• TSMC is unlikely to have any technical role in a spun out Intel Foundry due to a myriad of reasons including monopoly, conflict of interest, insufficient bandwidth etc.

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
• Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).
• We provide updates on Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) / Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) ,the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) .

• Telefónica is actively pursuing asset sales in Latin America and Europe, aiming to streamline operations and reduce net debt. The company anticipates generating approximately €3.27 billion from these transactions.
• Assuming minimal tax liabilities due to potential offsets from existing losses, the net proceeds could be applied directly to debt reduction, representing an 11.4% decrease in net debt (2.5x EBITDA).
• Telefónica’s dividend remains well covered, with a dividend yield of 7.2% for 2025e, significantly above the 10-year Spanish bond yield (3.2%).

• SPS Commerce has reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, showcasing a notable growth trajectory.
• For the full year, the company’s revenue increased by 19% to $637.8 million, with recurring revenue rising by 20%.
• Fulfillment and analytics sectors also saw significant growth, with the former growing by 20% and the latter by 8%.

• XL Axiata 4Q2024 results were solid despite lingering price competition in 4Q2024, especially from Telkomsel but this now looks to have abated with higher data pricing likely in 2025.
• The company saw its revenues driven by increasing data traffic and higher ARPUs but XL also grew its subscriber numbers last year despite increasing data pricing ahead of competitors.
• The FREN merger is ongoing with the completion due by end1H2025, with its Link Net restructuring complete, boosting its fixed broadband business. Valuations attractive with easing competition in 2025.

• Monday.com’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results, highlighted noteworthy achievements alongside challenges and strategic changes.
• Roy Mann, Co-CEO, emphasized reaching a major milestone of $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, indicating robust demand for monday.com’s Work OS platform.
• The company reported substantial growth with total revenue for Q4 2024 at $268 million—a 32% increase from the previous year—and an annual revenue of $972 million, marking a 33% year-over-year growth.

• On Semiconductor Corporation’s latest earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 reveals a mixed set of results, shaped by a combination of strategic decisions and challenging market conditions.
• The company’s revenue for the full year was $7.1 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 45.5%.
• This reflects a commitment to their transformation strategy focusing on intelligent power and sensing technologies, particularly in automotive, industrial, and AI data centers.

• Lattice Semiconductor provided a detailed overview of its financial performance and strategic outlook for the third quarter of 2024.
• The company’s results were generally in line with internal expectations, marking distinct progress in specific segments despite facing notable industry-wide headwinds.
• Revenue for the quarter was reported at $127.1 million, maintaining alignment with previously provided guidance.

• Based on Amkor Technology’s latest earnings call, the company’s performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 presented a mixed outlook with various challenges and achievements across different market sectors.
• For the fourth quarter, Amkor Technology reported revenues of $1.63 billion and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43, aligning with earlier guidance.
• However, the company witnessed a 3% revenue decline year-over-year, closing the year with $6.3 billion.