TMT/Internet

• PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
• Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth? 
• TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 

• In recent weeks, Meta stock has mostly been one-way street: up! That continued to be the case after-hours post 4Q’24 earnings.
• Here are my highlights from today’s call. Daily Active People (DAP) across its Family of Apps (FOA) accelerated to 60 mn QoQ in 4Q’24.
• It’s kind of mind boggling that Meta added 1 Billion DAP since 1Q’20.

• ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.
• Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth
• Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.

• AT&T’s latest financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 shows a balanced overview of strengths and challenges that shape its investment profile.
• Positively, the company has demonstrated solid growth in its core operations, particularly in the Mobility and Consumer Wireline segments.
• Postpaid phone net additions totaled approximately 1.7 million with a service revenue growth of 3.5% for Mobility, contributing to AT&T likely leading the industry in postpaid phone churn for most of the past sixteen quarters.

• Recent U.S. Market Weakness Appears to Have Been More Focused on Falling Sentiment for Server Businesses, Not PCs
• CES 2025 Showed Qualcomm Chips Gaining Momentum in PCs, While AMD Continued Aggressive Competition — Intel Under Pressure
• PC Maker Universe to Experience Decent Revenue Growth in 2025E — Structural Long Asustek & Dell

• According to our valuation analysis, it suggests a base case implied price of 19,673 won per share (46% higher than the high end of the IPO price range).
• Our base case valuation is based on target P/S of 5.4x using our estimated sales of 57.7 billion won.
• To value TXR Robotics, the target P/S of 5.4x is based on a 30% discount to the comps’ valuation multiple.

• Naver’s CHZZK has been increasing its market share in the Korean live game streaming sector. This improving momentum is likely to continue to positively impact Naver’s share price. 
• CHZZK was the top ranking live streaming platform in Korea in December 2024 with about 2.5 million MAU.
• Naver is currently trading at EV/EBITDA of 11.4x and P/E of 18.3x, which are 50% and 51% lower respectively than its historical average valuation multiples from 2020 to 2023.

• Verizon Communications Inc.’s latest earnings release highlights a blend of strategic initiatives, market positioning, operational performance, and future outlook amidst both challenges and opportunities.
• The results provide insights into Verizon’s growth trajectory, notably in the wireless, broadband, and emerging AI sectors, as well as operational efficiencies driving financial performance.
• The company reported a successful financial year, with wireless service revenue growing by 3.1% and adjusted EBITDA by 2.1%.

• For Q3 FY03/24, operating revenue was JPY62.4bn (+6.8% YoY), with net income JPY9.5bn (-1.0% YoY).
• Capex for Q3 FY03/25 was JPY4.2bn, a 34.4% YoY decrease, with 66.3% progress against the full-year plan.
• FY03/25 forecast revised: revenue JPY83.0bn (+6.4% YoY), operating expenses JPY65.5bn (+7.4% YoY), dividend JPY120/share.

• RaaS Research has published an update on edtech group ReadCloud (ASX:RCL) following the release of its Q1 results in which it reported a 26% increase in cash receipts to $2.4m.
• The result was in line with our forecasts from an operating cash flow and ending cash position.
• The company’s commentary was positive and gave us confident of our forecasts for the remainder of FY25 and into FY26.

• On 28 January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with NinjaOne at A$5.90 per share, a 34.1% premium to the undisturbed price of A$4.40 per share.
• The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. The vote is low-risk as the largest shareholder has provided an irrevocable. 
• The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. At the last close, for a 20 May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.0%/10.3%.

• Deepseek, formerly a quantitative hedge fund, has transitioned to building foundational AI models, causing a stir in the tech community
• Their recent paper on transformer LLM models has sparked interest and confusion, particularly regarding training and inference costs
• Despite claims of training on a small pool of GPUs, it is speculated that Deep Seq has access to tens of thousands of GPUs, challenging traditional notions of cost and capabilities in AI research.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
• The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
• I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.

• Market sees major losses in tech complex, catalyzed by introduction of Chinese AI model Deepseek
• Concerns arise about cheap Chinese competitor impacting market heavily invested in AI companies
• Zvi Moshevitz, AI expert, discusses Deepseek model’s training cost and optimization techniques

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• As we hit Chinese New Year break,  we want to examine if Hynix’s earnings and investor call met investor expectations
• 6 key questions going in and where we are post SK Hynix (000660 KS) reporting and before Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) reports early February
• The consensus is that the key questions were not answered.  Well, not all answered and some remains to be seen. 

• Zegona is a special purpose vehicle in the telecom sector that owns Vodafone’s operations in Spain
• The company has potential plans to monetize Vodafone Spain’s fiber assets and turnaround the underperforming business
• Zegona could see a fivefold increase in stock value, presenting an opportunity for investors seeking high growth potential

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 4Q24 shows a mixed picture; some bright spots ahead • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 and long-term outlook / record quarterly FCF • InPost | AliExpress survey shows Polish shoppers are looking for ‘engaging experiences’

• CARTA HOLDINGS (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q3 FY2024/12 results on November 13, 2024, which were in line with its upwardly revised forecasts disclosed with Q2 results.
• The Company positioned FY2024/12 as the first year toward its sharp recovery following aggressive cost structure reforms in FY2023/12, and expects full- year operating profit to rise 53.7% YoY to JPY 2,000 mn as a signal to the start of its comeback.
• Q4 is the Company’s busy season, and investors likely have a certain level of interest in where actual results come in.

• In Q3 FY03/25, the company reported revenue of JPY12.1bn, operating profit of JPY2.1bn, and net income of JPY1.4bn.
• Revenue by product category showed cloud services increased 28.2% YoY, while conventional software decreased 53.3% YoY.
• FY03/25 forecasts include revenue of JPY16.5bn, operating profit of JPY2.4bn, and a dividend of JPY83.00/share.

• Alarm.com has high dollar retention rates and is focused on diversifying revenue through growth initiatives, accounting for 30% of revenue and growing over 20% annually
• The company has potential for improvement in EBITDA margins and could be a target for activists or a PE buyout due to its strong financial position
• Founded in 2000 and incubated within MicroStrategy, Alarm.com has a history of innovation in the security products industry and is led by CEO Stephen Trundle

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• DeepSeek has been the biggest story in the global markets in the past couple of weeks.
• In this insight, we discuss how the rise of DeepSeek could impact the share prices of the major AI related companies in Korea including SK Hynix (000660 KS). 
• The top five Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by the rise of DeepSeek include SK Hynix, Hanmi Semiconductor, SK Square, HD Hyundai Electric, and LS Electric. 

• SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 — Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn’t Matter as Much Anymore
• DeepSeek Market Fears — A Problem for HBM & Enterprise SSD Memory?
• AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie — Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don’t Think So

• TSMC: 10.8% Premium; Taiwanese Investors Likely to Be Less Shocked by DeepSeek News?
• UMC: -7.3% Discount; The Latest Extreme Discount Cannot Be Sustained
• ASE: -10.2% Discount; This Extreme Discount Also Cannot Be Sustained

• The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.
• China’s semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) shares have benefited from this trend.
• Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) benefits from China’s announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.

• Azeus Systems Holdings Ltd. (SGX: AZEUS SP) is a leading global IT solutions provider with over 30 years of experience, specializing in board governance and digital transformation solutions. The company’s flagship product, Convene, serves boardrooms and executive teams across more than 100 countries, with additional offerings like Convene AGM, Convene Records, and Convene ESG, tailored to meet specific enterprise needs.
• Two Business Segments: Azeus Products and IT Services. These segments cater to a diverse clientele with tailored solutions that address specific operational and strategic needs of Azeus’s clients. Azeus Products account for the lion’s share of revenue, at 81% as shown below.
• Convene Flagship Product: Convene is a leading board governance solution for boardrooms and executives, offering secure document sharing, real-time collaboration, voting tools, analytics, and workflow automation to streamline decision-making. Its user-friendly interface and mobile compatibility make it popular among enterprises and governments. Azeus also offers additional Convene-branded products for specific use cases.

• TSMC hit a record high average fund allocation of 9.07% at the end of last year, yet EM funds switched to a sizeable underweight of -1.47% throughout the year.
• Active UCITS funds become forced sellers as weights hit 10%, with non-UCITS selling in to strength as weights rise on strong performance.
• EM Value funds maintain an overweight in Alibaba, the only Style group to do so. Alibaba is now the most widely held stock for Value funds alongside TSMC and Samsung.

• NVIDIA, the global leader in AI hardware, has recently faced unprecedented turbulence in the market, shedding nearly $600 billion in market capitalization in a single day—an event that has sent shockwaves through the tech and investment communities.
• The catalyst for this dramatic drop?
• DeepSeek, a relatively new Chinese AI startup that has stunned the industry by developing a highly efficient and cost-effective AI model, DeepSeek R1.

• Gan is diversifying its portfolio and investing in digital and audio formats to meet changing consumer preferences
• Bloomsbury is thriving as a publisher with a mix of popular fiction titles, academic books, and digital offerings
• Bloomsbury is maintaining its reputation as a leading publisher in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• RaaS has published an update on data analytics company Pureprofile (ASX:PPL) following its record Q2 and H1 results and guidance upgrade.
• Q2 revenue increased 30% to $15.3m, bringing H1 revenue to $29.2m, an increase of 22% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and ahead of our forecast for $27.6m.
• Q2 EBITDA was a record $1.7m, up 79% on the pcp and bringing H1 EBITDA to $3.3m, a 38% increase on the pcp.

• Goertek Inc A (002241 CH) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC, CSI, CMB and UBS.
• It is a world-leading provider of smart sensing interaction solutions.
• Anchored by its robust one-stop smart sensing interaction platform, the firm is dedicated to driving the transformation of next-generation smart sensing interactions in collaboration with global ecosystem partners.

• News that DeepSeek’s latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI’s ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today.
• DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
• Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let’s see where support for reversal rallies can be found.

• This reports addresses the alarmist wrong conclusions over DeepSeek, especially over GPU usage and costs
• This said, DeepSeek shows that Foundational models are commoditizing. Applications will be more resilient and profitable, ie customized with attached services
• We are just at the beginning of the AI revolution with language models. Physical models are next and massive Application deployment.  

• Information technology very strong with AAC Tech, Sunny Optical, Kingdee Int’l and Byd Elec all posting > 10% weekly gains.
• Gains were positive with helpful seasonals but not as widespread as last week with fewer singles stocks and Sectors participating in the rally.
• China Vanke has big increase in option trading, in particular Calls, with implied vols also rising. 

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) closed 2024 on a high note, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips and its cutting-edge 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technology nodes.
• The world’s largest contract chipmaker reported a record fourth-quarter net profit of NT$374.68 billion (US$11.37 billion), marking a 57% year-over-year increase, alongside a 39% revenue jump to NT$868.46 billion.
• The company’s gross margin rose to 59%, supported by high demand for advanced nodes despite challenges like ramp-up costs for its overseas facilities in the U.S. and Japan.

• In the Company’s stated goal aiming to become the No.1 cloud integrator in Japan, the importance of its close relationship with Microsoft cannot be overstated.
• JBS became certified as a Microsoft Partner in 1995, and it was awarded Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for the first time in 2007.
• JBS has been recognized as Microsoft Japan Partner of the Year for 12 consecutive years from 2013 – 2024, reflecting its business strategy to focus on cloud migration/integration during that period. 

• Texas Instruments recently presented their fourth-quarter earnings, offering insights into the performance and outlook of the company.
• The financial results indicate both challenges and opportunities for investors to consider.
• In the fourth quarter of 2024, Texas Instruments reported revenue of $4 billion, which marks a 3% sequential decrease and a 2% decline from the previous year.

• Allfunds is a European B2B fund platform founded in 2000 by CEO Juan Alcaraz, with strong organic revenue growth and EBITDA margins
• Despite facing challenges in the public markets, the company is poised to return to its historical growth trajectory
• With a client retention rate of 99.8% and significant market share, ALLFG offers a compelling growth opportunity yet to be fully reflected in its valuation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)is looking to raise about US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• Startia Holdings, Inc. (hereafter, the Company) is a corporate group providing IT solutions mainly to SMEs.
• Its core businesses consist of its IT infrastructure segment and its digital marketing segment which provides the Cloud CIRCUS digital marketing tool as a SaaS offering.
• The IT infrastructure segment promotes “defensive DX” providing one-stop solutions and DX to IT-related issues for customer companies through merchandises such as office automation equipment and network services, while the digital marketing segment promotes “offensive DX” with the aim of helping them acquire new customers and expand sales. By conducting

• ParkerVision (PRKR) is seen as a potentially mispriced option with a significant investment opportunity
• The company’s patent infringement case against Qualcomm (QCOM) could result in a value of $8+ per share, which is 9 times the current price of $0.90
• The case, estimated to be worth $2.6 billion, is expected to go to trial in the first half of 2025, with favorable odds for a positive outcome justifying a small position in PRKR

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• More than 40 potential turnaround stocks will report Q3 results in the coming weeks. 
• The average spread between the lowest and highest street estimate for the stocks on our target list is a gaping 45%. This doesn’t mean what most people think it means.
• Rohm, Taiyo Yuden, Yamato, Hamamatsu, JFE, Tsuruha look nice, but we pass on Shiseido and Mazda.

• Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
• Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
• Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well

• Apple (AAPL US) has been downtrending for the past 4 weeks, reaching deeply oversold levels on both our TIME and PRICE quantitative models. Our models are flashing a BUY signal.
• On January 30th Apple (AAPL US) will release its quarterly earnings: despite the stock’s current underperformance, most analysts remain optimistic about Apple’s future.
• Recently, US President’s Trump announced that Apple was planning a “massive investment” in the U.S. This was part of Trump’s initiative to accelerate major corporate investments in the country.

• I had a chance to speak to CompoSecure investor relations last week about its imminent spin-off (full notes below) of Resolute Holdings.
• The biggest takeaways are: 1) Resolute Holdings’ only M&A consulting client will be CompoSecure (I had initially thought it could/would focus on other clients).
• 2) The ultimate goal for Resolute is to be a high margin alternative asset manager. 3) Resolute is a taxable spin-off and so CMPO will not be “hyping” the spin-off given CMPO will have to pay taxes based on Resolute’s initiation valuation. 

• SailPoint, a pioneer and leader in identity industry with the best identity governance product, filed to go public in January.
• Thoma Bravo-backed technology company has a best-in-class product within a large market opportunity. They secure large enterprises and grow at scale.  
• SailPoint has completed its first IPO in 2017 and raised =$160M. Then, the company was reacquired by Thoma Bravo and now they plan to reportedly go public.

• SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
• The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a “let’s buy what US Persons cannot” moment.
• No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.

• CACI International reported strong results for the second quarter of its fiscal year 2025, highlighted by a robust revenue growth of 14.5% and an EBITDA margin of 11.1%.
• The company secured $1.2 billion in new business awards during the quarter and reported a trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.7x, indicating a solid demand for its services.
• This strong performance has prompted CACI to raise its full-year guidance, projecting revenue between $8.45 billion and $8.65 billion, and adjusted earnings per share ranging from $23.87 to $24.76.

• Amphenol Corporation concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 on a strong note, reflecting robust financial performance across most of its business segments.
• The company’s quarterly sales reached a record $4.318 billion, a 30% increase in both U.S. dollars and local currencies and a 20% organic growth compared to the same period in 2023.
• This growth was consistent across all served markets, with the company achieving significant milestones in both quarterly and full-year metrics.

• JIC announced a “mid-February” start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)‘s Tender Offer. That’s a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
• What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.
• Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)‘s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.

• Taiwan experienced an earthquake on January 21st, and the tremors are still ongoing.
• Dr. CC Wei, Chairman of TSMC, explained the establishment of over 10,000 additional Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) at the U.S. Fab.  
• The yield at TSMC’s Arizona fab is about 4% higher than at their Tainan fab, marking a record for initial production.   

• Samsung Life needs FSC approval for a 10-year holding plan on its Samsung Electronics stake. Without it, the whole plan could fall apart, so it’s all about regulatory green lights.
• If FSC approves Samsung Life’s long-term holding, they can’t sell those shares for at least 5 years—no exit strategy for the next half-decade due to regulatory rules.
• Samsung Life will convert part of its stake into long-term holdings, signaling how future buybacks and special dividends will balance in Samsung Electronics’ next shareholder return program.

• President Donald Trump announced the Stargate Project, a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.
• Elon Musk is miffed, Microsoft says they “approved” the project and have a new Right of First Refusal agreement in place with OpenAI. 
• Stargate is exclusively for OpenAI and the press release states that its mission is to provide a strategic capability to protect the national security of America and its allies.

• HTC and VIA are focusing on niche markets and expanding technological capabilities to stay relevant, while Japanese toolmakers turn to AI amid China market uncertainty.
• Nvidia CEO highlights strategic partnership with China’s robotics unicorns, as Acer expands into lifestyle products with Acerpure line.
• Singapore and Malaysia remain optimistic despite US AI chip restrictions, while India’s local EMS and semiconductor industries show growth in the technology sector.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Bharti Airtel, SK Hynix, Adani Green Energy, Wynn Macau, New World Development

• In the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended January 18th rose slightly to 223 k (220 k e / 217 k p). Meanwhile, continuing claims climbed to a three-year high of 1.90 mn (1.87 mn e / 1.85 mn p).
• Treasuries ended mixed yesterday. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 1 bp to 4.29%, while the yield on the 10Y UST grew 3 bps to 4.64%.

• BLND’s stock price has decreased, resembling CVNA’s past struggles
• BLND has been restructuring its cost base and balance sheet to prepare for future growth
• The company, led by a young CEO, is poised for potential recovery and positive earnings revisions, drawing parallels to CVNA’s path to success

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• SK hynix derived ~25-30% of revenues from AI in 2024 (HBM, LP-DDR, eSSD). AI revenues will double in 2025. SK hynix’s lead, both roadmap, manufacturing, qualifications extends to 2026.
• AI high growth also allows SK hynix to lower its exposure to commodity PC, Mobile, consumer segments. Hence, margins likely continue to increase in 2025-26.
• Sk hynix’s lead over Samsung is sustainable for at least 2025-26.  AI-related ASP / margins aren’t cyclical, unlike commodity memory. The stock trades at a miserable 6x 2025 EPS.

• MongoDB (MDB US) and Biogen Inc (BIIB US) are the main candidates for deletion based on their current and previous-review ranking.
• Ansys Inc (ANSS US) is expected to be deleted from the index by June 2025 following its $35bn acquisition by Synopsys Inc (SNPS US). 
• United Airlines Holdings (UAL US) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) are currently the main candidates for addition, thus the first in line to replace Ansys Inc (ANSS US).

• Recommendation to build a long position in Photronics ($PLAB) due to significant positive changes and strong fundamentals
• Stock is undervalued with potential for buyout or take-private deal, offering a margin of safety and high return on invested capital
• Possibility of management tapping into buyback program adds to the investment potential for Photronics

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Author recommends investing in DingDong Limited (DDL) to play a recovery in China
• DDL has shown promise with consecutive quarters of operating profits despite China’s economic issues
• Investment thesis is based on potential for DDL’s stock to rise for every 1% increase in operating margins, without assuming further margin expansion

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• China’s wafer foundry industry is set to experience substantial growth by 2025, presenting opportunities for technological advancements and innovation within the sector.
• TSMC’s focus on COUPE technology in silicon photonics demonstrates their commitment to driving advancements in the field and maintaining a leading position in the industry.
• The introduction of Samsung’s GenAI smartphones 2.0, equipped with AI agents, showcases a new level of integration and innovation in mobile technology, promising an enhanced user experience.

• JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
• It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
• Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 

• UMC reported Q424 revenues of NT$60,386 million, flat sequentially and in line with guidance.
• For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to NT$232,303 million, representing an increase of 4.4% YoY.
• Share price at a 4 year low and the outlook is still tepid, but almost $6 billion CapEx invested during the downturn years will pay dividends in the coming years..

• The FSC announced the details of its new IPO system improvement measures in Korea on 21 January.  
• New rules will discourage the rampant first day trading of Korean IPOs. In 74 out of 77 IPOs in 2024, institutional investors were “net sellers” on the listing date. 
• Rather, the new rules will encourage the investors to take more longer term approach to investing in Korean IPOs. 

• China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
• The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
• Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent’s approved game. 

• Intel Corporation, once the world’s dominant chipmaker, finds itself at a critical juncture, sparking speculation about its future.
• Following a 9.5% surge in its stock price after rumors of a potential acquisition surfaced, the company has been thrust into the spotlight.
• The speculation originated from a report by SemiAccurate, which hinted at an unnamed company with the financial clout to acquire Intel in its entirety.

• Taiwan cable cut near China raises concerns about geopolitical tensions and gray zone tactics in the region.
• Samsung Electro-Mechanics and SoulBrain’s collaboration on advanced glass substrates aims for mass production by 2027.
• India drives semiconductor aspirations with GaN and SiC technology, showcasing its commitment to technological advancements in the industry.

• Q1-2 FY3/25 results were ahead of guidance in our view, with underlying earnings growth stemming from improved profitability in the Digital Entertainment segment and robust sales growth in both the Sports and Lifestyle segments.
• The governance issue disclosed in December 2024 involving improper transactions at subsidiary Chariloto appears to have been fully resolved with no contingent issues to resolve.
• The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance, and we view the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 to be positive due to a combination of stabilizing performance with sustained successful collaborative activity with Monster Strike and seasonal uplift in the Sports segment.

• What is PCIe 5.0 and Why SIMO is Poised to Expand Market Share with PCIe 5.0
• PCIe 5.0 and Beyond — Importance for Enterprise HPC and AI Data Centers
• Looking Ahead: MaxLinear Arbitration in 2H25E — We Believe SIMO Likely to Win Its Termination Fee Plus Additional Award for Additional Damages

• SailPoint, a company that delivers solutions to enable comprehensive identity security for the enterprise, filed for an IPO. 
• SailPoint is sponsor-backed by Thoma Bravo who took the company private in August 2022 for $6.9bn
• As of January 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024, their ARR was $374.6 million, $520.1 million, and $681.8 million, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 44%, 39%, and 31%, respectively.

• The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
• There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
• The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.

• Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)’s tender offer from a JIC alliance is at JPY5,920. Today’s update notes that JIC has satisfied the regulatory precondition. 
• The tender offer is expected to commence in mid-February. The Board will continue to recommend it because it remains attractive. 
• Deal fatigue (announced in December 2023) and Ibiden’s derating will nudge shareholders to accept. At the last close and for an end-of-March payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/3.9%.

• There could be 2 adds and 2 deletes for Taiwan in a global index in February. Today is the last trading day ahead of the CNY holidays.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between US$76m to US$370m of the stocks and impact will vary between 3.2x-7x ADV to trade.
• Shorts are small in the potential adds and there has been short covering recently, while there has been a big increase in shorts for one of the potential deletes.

• Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) has a market cap of US$97.7bn, an eye-watering 115% premium to its bitcoin holding of US$45.4bn. Before taking into account debt.
• Investors are effectively dolling out $2+ for a $1 investment. And that investment is fuelled by new equity (shares are up 743% yoy) and debt. Perpetual preferred shares are next.
• Sceptics are not in short supply. But neither are backers, such as Capital (7%), Vanguard (6.9%), Susquehanna, Norges and other, arguably, sophisticated players. Right now, the backers are winning.

• News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
• TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
• TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 & 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.

• Shipment: expected to decrease by mid-single-digits QoQ ASP: Remains flat in USD/NTD appreciation may lead to decline for 1Q25 sales. 
• UMC’s addressable market in 2025 will grow in the low-single-digits YoY, driven by a moderate recovery in consumer applications in mature nodes.  
• 1Q25 consumer will grow QoQ thanks to higher DTV, DDI, Wi-Fi, and STB demand. Other applications will decline QoQ.

• UMC Misses 4Q24 Expectations — Gross Margin Dips with Flat QoQ Revenue
• UMC Guides for 40% Reduction in Capex Budget — We Believe Signals Strategic Shift to Less Capex Intensive Business Model
• Intel 12nm Partnership Remains on Track and is Key Business Model for Future; UMC Sees Improvement in Consumer Electronics Industry Inventories

• The merger between Omnicom Group (OMC US) and Interpublic Group Of Companies (IPG US) aims to create a marketing powerhouse with $25.6 billion in revenue and $750 million in annual synergies.
• Deal spread narrowed due to Omnicom’s price drop, signalling market caution over post-merger performance.
• The merger’s close, expected in 2025, will impact major US indices on an intra-quarter basis.

• Taiwan startup secures military contract for anti-drone tech, expanding manufacturing in mobile sector
• Dixon sees phone sales spike, eyes display fab with India semiconductor incentive
• Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power granted subsidy for OSAT facility, Poland faces US sanctions, Taiwan quake impacts semiconductor production, ByteDance dominates AI chatbot market, Broadcom and Marvell compete in ASIC opportunities

• Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)‘s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.  
• Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)‘s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).
• Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8″ DDICs for large panels, is notable.