TMT/Internet

• On Friday, NEC Corp (6701 JP) raised the price for its Tender Offer on Nec Networks & System Integr (1973 JP) from ¥3,250 to ¥3,300. 
• It also lowered the minimum to 10.153mm shares (6.82%). It had proposed to do so earlier but NESIC demanded a bump, and NEC didn’t want to. 
• Now it’s bumped. That’s the “final price.” But it still does not include “a fair allocation of a portion of the value that cannot be realised without an acquisition.”

• In Pentamaster Corp: In The (EV) Driver’s Seat in February last year, I discussed Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK)‘s supply of semiconductors testers to the electric vehicle business.
• A quirk of PENT was that its pseudo dual-listed twin – Pentamaster International (1665 HK) – trades at a significant discount.
• In a not altogether surprising move, PENT is now seeking to take PI private by way of a Scheme at HK$1.00/share, including a HK$0.07/share dividend.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, all of the India listings managed to do well, while Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) managed to provide steady returns as well.
• On the placements front, there were only a few deals in India, led by Mankind Pharma. 

• Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
• There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.
• Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.

• Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels and EVs will be cheaper than ICE vehicles, but you can’t make either without the parts that Rohme excels in. 
• Tesla is up 201% on speculation about its FSD, but Taiyo Yuden, which makes critical parts in FSD systems is down systems, is down 43%.
• Kose is down 49%, largely on China woes, but China is no longer big enough to be a problem, and Japan and other regions growth should start to take over. 

• The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
• A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
• Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

• SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity fell 20% week-on-week this week. Net buying was a little stronger. 
• Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was a net SOUTHBOUND sell this week for the first weekly sell since it became Southbound-eligible. Friday was the largest one-day sell in that period.
• Tech is still on the sell side and financials are still being bought very bigly.

• Pentamaster International (1665 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from Pentamaster Corp (PENT MK) and AchiCapital at HK$1.00 (HK$0.93 cash + HK$0.07 dividend), a 56.3% premium to the undisturbed price. 
• The offer is final but unattractive compared to peer multiples. The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller, but there is risk due to a high AGM participation rate.
• An arguably light offer in which the Holdco is privatising its OpCo by arbitraging the valuation discrepancies across two exchanges may not sit well with minorities.

• I tally 51 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. 
• Two new deals this week: Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)‘s Scheme, and Beenos Inc (3328 JP)‘s Tender Offer.
• Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), GAPack (468 HK), Fuji Soft (9749 JP), Macromill (3978 JP) and Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK).

• Regardless of the circumstances, Intel Corp (INTC US) must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  
• A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.
• For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  

• 2025 could be thorny for Asian equities. The main themes – “Trump turmoil”, a slower Fed and a “stronger for longer” Dollar and continued AI boom – have mixed implications.
• China’s policy articulation to support consumption departing from earlier supply-side measures, would be an important investment driver. India, though expensive, has a few “unloved” sectors that investors should focus on.
• Based on our five investment themes, we identify five high quality liquid top picks in Asia – two listed in Hong Kong and one each in Taiwan, India and Korea. 

MoneyHero’s Q324 results show revenues up 6% y-o-y (9M24 +18%) and a smaller adjusted EBITDA loss, as expected. The important element of the narrative, though, is the emphasis on driving revenues in higher-margin product areas and increasing operating efficiency within the business. Group CFO Hao Qian has resigned to return to China, with the group FD, Danny Leung, stepping up on an interim basis. The market opportunity remains substantial, and with customer data now on a unified platform, MoneyHero is well placed to deliver improved outcomes for both providers and end consumers. Our forecasts are updated to show more moderate top-line growth through FY26e, generating stronger margins.

• Microsoft’s aggressive acquisition of nearly half a million Nvidia AI chips underscore the tech giant’s all-in commitment to artificial intelligence (AI).
• As AI reshapes industries, Microsoft has found itself playing catch-up against Google, Amazon, and Meta, all of whom have already developed custom AI chips.
• By investing heavily in Nvidia’s cutting-edge Hopper GPUs, Microsoft has managed to build out a formidable AI infrastructure but at a significant cost.

• Investors pushed up EEX due to bullish trading recommendations by Nomura
• Nomura may have miscalculated net buying needed, leading to stock correction
• Correction in EEX is now seen as overdone, presenting undervalued opportunity for short-term trades and long-term investments

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• On December 16th, Kuaishou launched a subscription service for its micro drama channel, we believe it marks a key step towards improving monetization;
• The penetration rate of heavy micro drama users on the platform has steadily increased, and leveraging their loyalty and monetization efficiency may improve with the subscription model.
• The new model could better help mitigate the macroeconomic risks posed by advertising and the content quality risks of its long-tail partners.

• Merck to establish new advanced materials center in Japan, expanding global presence in innovative materials science field.
• Global smartphones market projected to see growth in 3Q 2024, suggesting sustained demand and continuous innovation in tech sector.
• US government unveils quadrennial supply chain review to enhance national security and boost domestic production, with focus on semiconductor manufacturing.

• There will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 December.
• All changes are in line with our forecasts and there appears to be positioning in all the stocks.
• Cal Comp Electronics Thailand (CCET TB) will have the largest passive buying a percentage of free float and could be the stock to watch.

• LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise around US$850m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
• LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
• In our previous notes, we looked at the firm’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation.

• Broadcom Inc.’s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic acquisitions and advancements in AI technologies.
• The company’s consolidated revenue for the fiscal year reached $51.6 billion, showcasing a 44% year-over-year increase.
• This growth was bolstered not only by strong organic growth of over 9% but also by the strategic acquisition and integration of VMware, which contributed notably to Broadcom’s financial achievements.

• ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for the one Global Index for the next 12 months due to undisclosed shareholdings which remain locked for one year following the IPO.
• ServiceTitan (TTAN US) is ineligible for the next 6 months for the US and the other Global Index because it fails public voting rights.
• ServiceTitan’s earliest addition is forecasted for September 2025 in the one Global Index following the IPO lock-up expiry unless there is a material conversion of unlisted shares.

• The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX INDEX) dropped 3.6% following the FED’s communication of fewer than previously expected rate cuts in 2025. Quantitative analysis suggests that the Index is oversold.
• Implied volatility spikes up from low levels to above median levels. The Skew steepens considerably as traders brace for more downside.
• Risk Reversals are attractively priced right now in historic comparison. Parameters of a zero-cost risk reversal strategy are presented as an example.

• The tech giant Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd is to complete the spinoff of its intelligent automotive business unit to become an independent company, Shenzhen Yinwang Intelligent Technology Co.

• Huawei’s aim is to solidify its position as a leading smart vehicle supplier amid industry challenges and expanding partnerships.

• Founded in 2019, Huawei’s car business unit originally said it would not make cars itself, but focus on supplying automotive components, particularly autonomous driving systems, through its Huawei Inside (HI) model.

• Alphabet (GOOGL US) Pixel 10 will use the Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) T9000 modem.  
• The shipment quantity to the smartphone market is small, and we see this as a small triumph for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT).
• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing a 3nm process issue and lacks the capacity to support its own smartphone CPU Exynos 2400.

• TT Electronics issued a profit warning, causing shares to drop by 37%
• Despite this, the company’s balance sheet is strong and management is capable
• Stock is now at its cheapest since 2008-09, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors looking beyond the short term

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• China leads the battery materials market as South Korea’s Posco considers exiting, while Lotte gears up for mass production of LFP batteries.
• Rapidus focuses on installing EUV equipment for multiple units deployment amidst industry challenges, while Micron sees record data center sales but misses guidance targets.
• Nvidia eyes Taiwan for humanoid robot assembly, Japan enters 2nm chip race alongside Samsung, Intel, and TSMC amid supply chain obstacles.

• Trimble Inc. recently presented its third-quarter financial results, showcasing both progress and challenges within its strategic framework.
• The Connect & Scale strategy, designed to harness digital connectivity across various industrial stakeholders, continues to be a focal point for Trimble.
• This framework not only aims for technological bridging between users and data in fields like engineering, construction, transportation and logistics but also strives for operational uniformity through shared technology and backend systems.

• It has been a decent year for the index rebalance strategy, though there have been some big hiccups along the way.
• Forecasting the index changes and impacts has been important, but timing (especially momentum/value regime changes) and hedge selection have also been major factors affecting the returns of the strategy.
• As passive AUM continues to increase, we expect focus on the strategy to continue in 2025 with market players taking different approaches to trading the potential and announced index changes.

• Synopsys reported a strong performance for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, achieving record revenue and earnings.
• The company crossed the $6 billion revenue mark, with a 15% year over-year increase, driven by its strategic focus on high-growth segments like AI, silicon proliferation, and software-defined systems.
• Synopsys has expanded its bottom line significantly, with EPS growing at a 24% CAGR over the past five years.

• The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) selling lead the index straight into OVERSOLD territory on December 18th.
• The sell off is overdone, our DAILY NDX model suggests a high probability LONG trade for Thursday.
• High volatility may affect trades, triggering stops and making it difficult to hold without taking the risk of big losses, Vertical Spreads (Bull PUTs) are a better instrument choice.

• S&P500 is up 27.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is down 6.9% YTD. Global fund flow continues to pour into top quality US stocks such as Palantir, Tesla, and NVIDIA.
• The top 20 best performing stocks in KOSPI 200 are up on average 106.8% YTD. However, the remaining 180 stocks in KOSPI 200 are down on average 9.2% YTD. 
• There is no large Palantir-like company that deals with AI/data analytics in Korea. However, large cap IT services and telcos in Korea are increasingly expanding their AI/data analytics related business.

• Oracle Corporation’s recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 highlighted a strong performance driven by significant growth in their cloud services segment.
• Total revenue reached $14.1 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year, while non-GAAP earnings per share were reported at $1.47, marking a 10% growth year-over-year.
• Such results slightly surpassed expectations, given the challenging currency fluctuations owing to a strengthening U.S. dollar.

• C3.ai reported its second-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, reflecting a continuation of strong performance with several noteworthy highlights and challenges.
• The company posted total revenue of $94.3 million, representing a 29% year-over-year increase, which exceeded the high end of their revenue guidance.
• Notably, subscription revenue rose by 22% to $81.2 million, making up 86% of total revenue, while professional services revenue was $13.2 million.

• Adobe’s recent earnings release reflects a period of consistent growth and innovation, demonstrating both strengths and challenges.
• For the fiscal year 2024, Adobe achieved record revenue of $21.51 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase.
• This growth was fueled by robust performance across its business segments, most notably within its Digital Media and Digital Experience divisions.

• IMMR reported fiscal Q2 (October) after having changed its fiscal year end to April. IMMR changed its fiscal year end after the purchase of approximately 11 million shares of BNED.  
• The quarter was continuation of IMMR reporting increased revenue from fixed rate royalties while per unit royalties declined slightly from the prior year.   
• IMMR reported revenue of $14.1 million compared to our estimate of $10.1 million. We were not expecting a large bump in fixed royalties like IMMR reported in the quarter.  

• XPeng and Nio abandon Nvidia Thor chip over delays, impacting production schedules and development timelines.
• Wistron set to establish new plant in Vietnam in 2025, with potential expansion of current facilities, boosting local economy.
• MSI launches made-in-India notebooks as part of market expansion strategy, tapping into growing demand for tech products in the region.

• This event drew significant attention, causing unusual price action. From Sept 20 to Nov 29, corrections in the deletions far outpaced the KOSPI, with the trend holding across key checkpoints.
• We’re watching 4 stocks: Kumho Petro, Lotte Chemical, Posco DX, and EcoPro Materials. SK Bioscience and Enchem are close, with small price moves likely pushing them out.
• Based on past rebalancing patterns, proactive positions on these names could trigger strong price action. All except Enchem have listed futures and solid volume, making trading conditions favorable.

• There are 8 changes a side for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in December. The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919TW) has an AUM of US$9.3bn.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 17.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. All adds and deletes have over 5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• The rebalance will be implemented over 8 trading days and the ETF started trading some stocks late last week and the rest from 17 December.

• Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $107,000 and steadily moving toward $110,000, as we predicted in Crypto Moves #55.
• That note remains highly relevant.
• Among the three most notable developments of the past week, MicroStrategy has been “QQQ’d.” Find out what that entails below, along with the other two standout pieces of news and the key charts shaping the market as we head into one of the last weeks of 2024.

• Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
• We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
• Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.

• The IT service market in Korea is estimated to be 51.5 trillion won in 2023 and it is expected to growth at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028.
• The Cloud & AI market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 10.5% from 32.7 trillion won in 2023 to 53.8 trillion won in 2028.
• LG CNS had about 8.9% share in the IT services market in Korea in 2023.

• TSM is upbeat on the AI demand and remains confident that the cycle has just begun with long a runway for growth ahead.
• TSM’s primary competitors, Intel and Samsung Electronics, are currently facing challenges within their foundry operations, placing TSM in a favorable position to expand its market share
• The Company anticipates a strong closing for FY:24 and has guided for nearly 35% YOY revenue growth in Q4 2024. We believe the momentum will continue in 2024E-2026E.

• ATNI, a telecom company, has been overlooked due to industry setbacks
• Company’s businesses are healthy and poised for growth in revenue and EBITDA in 2025 and beyond
• Expected free cash flow inflection point could lead to increased dividends, stock repurchases, and debt reduction, potentially doubling stock value in two years based on projected 2026 estimates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise around US$850m in its upcoming Korea IPO.
• LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
• In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

• German government approves financing for TSMC’s fab in Dresden, boosting semiconductor production in Europe.
• Kaynes Semi secures anchor customer in power electronics, bolstering its position in the market.
• Suchi Semicon opens Gujarat’s first OSAT facility; Google appoints new India head to advance AI technology.

• Since mid-November, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have widened, 8 tightened, 1 unchanged) with few changes in the trends.
• The most notorious reversal has been Telecom Italia. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
• Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.

• Constituent changes to the S&P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$17.7bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&P500 Equal Weight Index.
• There is over US$500m to trade in Broadcom (AVGO US), Tesla (TSLA US), Apollo Global Management (APO US), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US). 
• Broadcom (AVGO US) swings from a small net buy to a large net sell following the rally in the stock last week.

• We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
• We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
• There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

• BYD Electronics benefits from two key growth drivers in 2025: a cyclical upswing in its legacy EMS business, and sustained strong growth in auto electronics and AI data cooling devices.
• Earnings momentum is expected to pick up in 4Q, with key segments entering an earning upcycle. Expect bottomline growth to accelerate to 45% in 2025 from 9% in 2024.
• The 13x 2025 PE multiple does not capture BYDE’s transformation from a low-end, cyclical EMS to a leading high-precision manufacturer with a more diverse and balanced set of growth drivers.

• Top Ten most active contracts for the week all traded on Monday. Most of the active contracts were Calls with December expiries.
• Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) makes the Top Ten non-Tencent most active contracts with both Puts and Call active – likely stock replacement and hedges following torrid run higher.
• Tencent implied vols trading at their lowest levels of the past year.

• NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.
• Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.
• Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.

• In this insight, we provide a list of 70 prominent companies in the USA, Europe, and the Middle East that could complete their IPOs in 2025.
• This is a comprehensive, REFERENCE GUIDE to help clients so that they could get a broad view of the major IPOs that could get completed in these regions in 2025.
• Some of the most prominent potential IPOs in these regions next year include Starlink, SpaceX, Stripe, Open AI, Klarna, Five Holdings, Monzo, and Ethiad Airways.

• Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has been consistently undervalued in the market despite strong revenue and earnings growth
• The company’s average forward P/E multiple over the past 15+ years has been just 21.7x, even though it has consistently outperformed the S&P 500
• Currently trading at a discounted valuation of around 17x 2025E EPS, Alphabet has been mispriced for most of its 20-year history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• UiPath reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, surpassing its guidance on all crucial financial metrics.
• The company concluded the quarter with an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $1.607 billion, marking a 17% increase driven by a net new ARR of $56 million.
• Quarterly revenue reached $355 million, and the company achieved a non-GAAP operating income of $50 million.

• Following on from our previous note, we now identify inexpensive consistent compounders from the small and mid-cap universe in Asia ($1 – $5 bn in market capitalization).
• 28 stocks are on our list – 18 from onshore China, 5 from India, 2 each from Japan and Taiwan and 1 from Hong Kong.
• Industrials, technology, healthcare and financials dominate the list. The list of large and mid-cap compounders shall largely form the backbone of our top stock choices for 2025.

• A conversation with Indosat (ISAT IJ) managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel’s recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. 
• 2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. 
• Indosat‘s move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp‘s GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.

• There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$1.1bn. Impact on the stocks is not big given they trade like water.
• The selling in Broadcom and NVIDIA will be amplified by selling from the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight E (RSP US) ETFs. 

• The MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 index represents the performance of the biggest US-listed companies in the semiconductor industry.
• There will be no index changes for the December 2024 rebal event.
• We expect a one-way flow of US$1.3bn for December 2024, which translates to a turnover of 5.4%.

• LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS), the IT service unit of LG Corp (003550 KS), seeks to raise up to US$837 million through a primary/secondary offering.   
• In 2020, Macquarie Asset Management bought a 35% stake from LG Corp for KRW950 billion, beating KKR & Co (KKR US), the other shortlisted bidder.
• The bull case rests on an attractive market, improving visibility, strong AI-led growth, below-peer average dependence on related parties, and top-tier profitability. 

• This Insight analyzes Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) tailor-made option strategies traded between December 9-13, covering strategy analysis, trends, highlights, and volatility context.
• Last week saw high activity with over 5,000 option contracts traded as combinations; the Iron Condor was notably popular, particularly on Monday and Tuesday.
• The highest premium earned was for a January ’25 Iron Condor. The largest trade was a December ’24 Bull Call Spread, reflecting the popularity of bullish and long volatility strategies.

• Shenzhen Dobot, a CICC-backed robotics unicorn, aims to raise up to HK$830M (~$107M) in the initial public offering in Hong Kong.
• The offering is expected to be between HK$18.80 and HK$20.80, implying a market cap of ~HK$8B or ~$1B at the midpoint of the price range.  
• Given Shenzhen Dobot’s long-term growth opportunities and high TAM, they are likely to get a premium valuation, and the company could trade like UBTech Robotics and Doosan Robotics.

• Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a “say do” approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel
• Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can’t deliver, MJ won’t hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.
• Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won’t be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !

• Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.
• Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower  
• Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).

• TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range
• UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High
• CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares

• Apple’s 2nm Power Move with TSMC — Beating Samsung Yet Again
• Why TSMC’s 2nm Will be Huge — Extending Tech Lead vs. Samsung & Major AI/Power Consumption Benefits for Customers
• The Memory Decoupling Trade is Working — Nanya Tech Underperforms SK Hynix

• We anticipate Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve a 25% growth in 2025.  
• It is unsurprising for TSMC to dominate in AI, including the assembly and testing segments.  
• Chinese companies are also involved in AI, but there hasn’t been a recent spread as a result of U.S. sanctions.  

• Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, has long been a dominant force in the tech world, leveraging its search, cloud, and AI capabilities.
• Recent announcements, including the development of its custom quantum computing chip “Willow,” the launch of Gemini 2.0 AI models, and its partnership with Samsung for mixed-reality headsets, have spurred investor optimism.
• These developments come against the backdrop of an earnings call highlighting impressive revenue growth and expanding AI applications across search, cloud services, and autonomous driving.

• The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
• In this insight, we take a look at the rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs for the March 2025 index rebal event.
• Based on the latest available data, we see four ADDs and four DELs for HSIII in March 2025.

• Nec Networks (1973 JP)‘s own FA didn’t include any measure of transaction synergies to be created about which NEC and NESIC were so sure. This is not being done right.
• Singapore Post (SPOST SP)‘s muted price action after announcing the ~S$900mn FMH sale is illustrative. But expect more value to be unlocked from divesting non-core ops going forward. 
• The FTC’ blocking the giant grocery merger of Kroger Co (KR US) and Albertsons Cos (ACI US) spells trouble for ACT and Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP).

• I tally 51 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
• Five new deals this week: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), and Lifestyle China (2136 HK). VCredit Holdings (2003 HK) and Vesync (2148 HK) also in the crosshairs. 
• Key updates/news took place on: Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)/Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), and Dexus Property (DXS AU) 

• GitLab’s recent quarterly results reveal a complex, yet promising landscape for the company.
• GitLab reported arevenue increase of 31% year-over-year, reaching $196 million for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025.
• The company exceeded profitability guidance with a non-GAAP operating margin of 13.2%, up more than 1,000 basis points from the prior year.

• Guidewire Software’s recent earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2025 provides insightful details on the company’s strategic initiatives and financial performance.
• The company reported a strong start to the fiscal year, emphasizing momentum in cloud adoption and strategic international growth.
• On the positive side, Guidewire Software demonstrated robust performance with total revenue reaching $263 million, marking a 27% year-over-year increase.

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s fiscal fourth quarter results for 2024 demonstrated a robust performance, highlighted by record quarterly revenue of $8.5 billion, marking a 15% year-over-year increase.
• This growth was driven largely by the continued success of HPE GreenLake and a notable acceleration in AI system revenues.
• The company’s results surpassed expectations across key financial metrics, including revenue, diluted net earnings per share, and free cash flow.

• Onto Innovation reported its third-quarter financial results for 2024, demonstrating several strengths and challenges that inform its investment outlook.
• The company achieved a revenue of $252 million, marking a 4% sequential increase and a 22% rise year-over-year.
• This performance set a new quarterly record for inspection revenue, indicating robust demand within its specialty device and advanced packaging segments.

• Samsara Inc. reported strong financial and operational performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, highlighting its continued growth and strategic advancements in a dynamic market.
• Samsara ended the quarter with an annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $1.35 billion, representing a 35% year-over-year growth, and achieved a record 10% adjusted free cash flow margin.
• The growth in ARR was driven by signing high-profile clients across various sectors, including significant deals with companies like Papa John’s and Fortune 500 firms, indicating Samsara’s ability to attract large, complex organizations seeking digital transformation of physical operations.

• Sprinklr, a company focused on a unified AI-powered customer experience management platform, reported its Q3 fiscal year 2025 financial results, providing insights into its current operational status and future strategies.
• The company achieved a total revenue of $200.7 million for the quarter, marking an 8% year-over-year growth, while subscription revenue grew by 6% year-over-year to $180.6 million.
• However, professional services revenue disappointed with a gross margin of negative 8%.

• ~4 weeks ago, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) responded to Bain’s Proposal to take over the company but got KKR to bid ¥1 more, then said that covered it.
• The Special Committee then asked the FSI Board to halt further negotiations with Bain, and to ask Bain to destroy all confidential documentation. 
• Bain rejected saying it contravened METI Guidelines on Corporate Takeovers and reappeared 2 days ago with a ¥9,600 bid. The structure/details of Bain’s bid was probably a strategy mistake.

• ServiceTitan, a provider of field service management software for home service businesses, priced its IPO at $71.00/share and raised ~$625M.  
• ServiceTitan IPO has seen robust demand among institutional investors. The company boosted its initial price range to $65.00 to $67.00 per share.
• The offering was priced above the price range, valuing ServiceTitan at ~$6.5B. The stock jumped ~42% on first day as a public company and closed at $101.00 on Thursday.

• Nvidia Corp. on Tuesday asserted its commitment to fair competition, after China’s market regulators opened an antitrust investigation into the U.S. chip giant over suspected violations linked to a 2020 deal.
• The probe, announced on Monday by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), concerns Nvidia’s compliance with the country’s Anti-Monopoly Law and conditions tied to its $6.9 billion acquisition of Israeli network-equipment maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd.
• The deal — the largest acquisition Nvidia has ever made — faced intense scrutiny from Chinese regulators, who conditionally approved it after nearly a year-long process.

• Samsung Display appoints new VP to lead strategic product realignment, driving focus on key areas.
• BYD expands EV production in Europe, while Gotion aims for battery growth in Morocco and Slovakia.
• Google unveils Gemini 2.0 and next-gen TPU Trillium, ushering in the era of AI agents; Morris Chang shares insights on Intel’s leadership crisis. Samsung shifts 2,000 engineers to Pyeongtaek to tackle HBM hurdles.

• Although the outlook for 1Q25 might be somewhat negative, we believe that it is a reasonably typical result.
• We understand that MediaTek did not succeed in qualifying its Apple iPad and iWatch CPUs originally, but we believe it is now preparing for a re-qualification process.
• Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate a more favorable outlook for MediaTek.