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Smartkarma Originals

Homecoming For Chinese Companies: Appraisal Rights & Fair Value

By | Smartkarma Originals

On 20 May 2020, the US Senate passed the  S. 945 the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, an act which could force the delisting of US-listed Chinese companies should they be in noncompliance with US accounting standards. Shortly after, the U.S. House of Representatives introduced its version of the Bill which has yet to pass.

This bill requires certain issuers of securities to establish that they are not owned or controlled by a foreign government. Specifically, an issuer must make this certification if the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) is unable to audit specified reports because the issuer has retained a foreign public accounting firm not subject to inspection by the board. Furthermore, if the board is unable to inspect the issuer’s public accounting firm for three consecutive years, the issuer’s securities are banned from trade on a national exchange or through other methods. 

This creates a conundrum, if not an impossibility, as Chinese regulators forbid foreign regulatory bodies, such as the PCAOB, from inspecting accounting firms based in China. 

The Act, which is still to be ratified by the House, reconciled with the Senate bill, and approved by President Trump, provides even greater impetus for “take private” transactions (often expecting to re-list elsewhere at higher valuations) and secondary listings in markets outside of the United States, such as Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Hong Kong is laying out the welcome mat. First the HKEx amended its listing rules in April 2018 to allow companies with multiple classes of shares with individual-controlled voting rights to sell shares in Hong Kong. This new listing regime enabled secondary listings for the likes of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) / JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) and Alibaba Group (BABA US) / Alibaba Group (9988 HK). Further changes to the Listing Rules are anticipated to accommodate companies with corporate shareholders with weighted voting rights – such as Tencent Music (TME US).

But on occasion, the consideration paid under these take-private “homecoming” transactions are not always considered fair by the investment community.

The recently completed 58.Com Inc Adr (WUBA US) (58.com: Foregone Conclusion Amidst Proxy Advisor Pushback) faced considerable proxy advisor backlash. Similarly, Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US)‘s preliminary non-binding “going private” proposal from its chairman/CEO,  is widely viewed as a low-balled, opportunistic Offer (Sina Corp: Management Buyout Offer). 

For Cayman Islands incorporated companies, such as SINA and 58.com, Section 238 of the Companies Law (2020 Revision) may provide scope for dissenting shareholders to a merger/take-private transaction to have the Grand Court determine the fair value of their shares.

That right to dissent also hinges off how these take-private transactions are undertaken,

As of today, four cases have resulted in final judgments handed down by the Grand Court of Cayman – Integra Group, Shanda Games Ltd Spons Adr (GAME US), Qunar Cayman Islands (QUNR US), and most recently, Nord Anglia Education (NORD US).


What’s Original?

This insight explores the mechanics of Section 238 of the Cayman Companies Law, the case history of four appraisal rights judgments, and what dissenting shareholders may expect when taking their merger objections to Court.

Quiddity Advisors • Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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Asian Governance: Diversity & Incentives Through the Cultural Lens

By | Smartkarma Originals

In this Smartkarma Original, we seek to study how diversity and incentives influence stock performance and profitability. We tallied diversity and incentive data related to the board of directors, management, and employees across major economies in Asia and picked top 10 companies of each country in terms of market capitalization. We chose to exclude major companies listed in exchanges of other economies such as Tencent and Alibaba to limit our sample size.

Then we devised diversity and incentive scores to assign to those companies and compare those scores against a 5-year trend of their return on shareholders’ equity (ROE) ratios and 1-year stock performance from 1-July-19 to 30-June-20 over its corresponding exchange indices.

The report covers diversity vs. incentives in Asia, diversity score vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, incentives vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, diversity + incentives scores vs. 1-year stock performance and ROE trend, companies with top and bottom diversity + incentive scores, countries with top and bottom average diversity + incentive scores, and incentive score vs. staffing cost trend. 

The results show that companies with high diversity scores do perform well. A high diversity score also has a positive impact on the ROE trend, based on our regression analysis at 95% confidence level. We found that employee incentives are not significant as staff diversity but they can still have an influence on company performances at a lower 90% confidence level.

We note that this study is at the preliminary stage and stock performance is a function of many factors, not only the diversity scores that we concluded. Needless to say, our diversity and incentive scores also reflect the level of disclosures by selected companies, not necessarily the actual practice within each company. Our diversity and incentive scores are also not a credit rating or ranking with peers and, hence, do not reflect default probability of selected companies.

We caution that in Asia, many diversity trends in the West may not apply. The fact that many Asian business communities may remain less sensitive to equal opportunities for females, disabled persons, or LGBTQ communities could make returns of Asian companies less correlated to diversity than in the West. Likewise, additional incentives in some countries in Asia may not be necessary as employees’ strong performance (i.e. in Japan) is a norm, according to the prevalent work culture.

Bondcritic is developing a scoring model, which includes environment, social development, and corporate governance; the last of which cover diversity and incentives. This report is the first of the series to uncover shenanigans in the Asian corporate sector.

Bondcritic • Independent Asian Credit Research • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted. Opportunities/Challenges Ahead -Time to Pivot & Persist

By | Smartkarma Originals

Restaurants globally not just in Asia are passing their darkest days as pandemic-led caution and restrictions have impacted operations and viability, even threatening the survival of many independent restaurants. Well-funded restaurant chains are better positioned to weather this crisis; the agile and resilient operators that can adapt to the change in consumption behavior could eventually benefit from the likely sector consolidation. We look at leading listed restaurant players in Asia  – Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US), Haidilao (6862 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK), Xiabuxiabu Catering Mgt Chn Hldgs (520 HK), Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) and Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN) as well as Western players Starbucks Corp (SBUX US) China, Mcdonald’s China that have established a presence here – to evaluate their operational and investment outlook at a time when pandemic-led uncertainties have disrupted regular operations. 

What is original? In this report, we assess the operational and investment outlook for leading listed Asian restaurant players (referred to earlier) based on (1) how they have responded to the challenges posed by the pandemic and (2) the resilience and adaptability of their business model to operate under the new sector-realities, beyond the pandemic crisis. We also discuss how several near-term and long-term factors are acceleratedly disrupting the restaurant sector. These changes under the new normal poses challenges and opportunities to the sector’s players. Digital and Delivery capabilities will help the established players with strong brands to better weather the crisis and benefit from likely sector consolidation. Convenience and Value-for-money offerings will benefit strong QSR brands as macro-economic headwinds impact consumption patterns.

Investory • Asia Consumer Research, Equity Analyst • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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Indian E-Commerce Logistics – Shipping Into The Limelight

By | Smartkarma Originals

This is a joint insight with Nitin Mangal

The Indian logistics industry was one of the ‘hot topics’ just a couple of years back pursuant to the revolutionary GST reforms along with the introduction of the E-way bill. It was expected that the entire dynamics of the industry would change due to extinction of various taxes especially octroi, however in reality it was found out that this was just another hype and that the industry still functions more or less the same owing to poor GST implementation per se.

Fast forward to 2019-20, opportunities galore for logistics, but this time it is attributed to the triumph of e-commerce in India. E-commerce in India has already taken-off,  however, it is set to champion the rally in the coming years; with a significant share owing to the emergence of JioMart. Jio’s vision of digitalisation augurs well for the industry, probably being a game-changer. On the back of leading global investors, it is expected that JioMart will turn the tide in the logistics market, quite similar to what witnessed in the telecom market. The market share dynamics would also change, as Amazon and Flipkart which combine to form 90% of the e commerce market, will see their market shares decline. Additionally, the pandemic and new social distancing norms can also turn out to be the icing on the cake.

The primary crux of this insight is to study the Indian logistics sector and to determine the reaction towards expected boom in e-commerce. Currently, the logistics industry has a good mix of established listed players like Blue Dart, private/startups like Delhivery and captive players like ATS, offering a wide range of services across surface, 3PL and e-commerce.

As per our channel checks, we realised that the upcoming e-commerce traction would act as a ‘Santa’ to all the players; since there is no particular player who is a leader across all the services. The pie will be shared by those engaging in surface and 3PL as well, apart from the e-commerce oriented entities. However, the key is that e-commerce services of all the players will take the hot seat, and would represent close to one-third of revenues.

In the battle of public players vs the startups, we presume that the startups have a leading edge, especially due to their already-high specialisation in e-commerce and the ability to get funded regularly. Lastly, our preferred pick among all the players would be E-kart, Delhivery and to some extent, ‘Grab’ in the private space. Among the listed entities, we assume Blue Dart Express (BDE IN) , Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG IN) and TCI Express to gain a relatively higher advantage.

 

ASA Capital Management • Indian Consumer Analyst • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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Asian SaaS Stars: Opportunities, Market Outperformance, & Key Challenges

By | Smartkarma Originals

The Asian Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is a highly fragmented sector filled with numerous innovative companies. Thousands of companies compete in the Asian SaaS sector. In this insight, we have included 105 companies, including 56 public companies and 49 private companies in Asia.

The 56 public companies have a total market cap of $367.2 billion won. The top 10 companies in this list have a total market cap of $298.1 billion won. Among the top-ranked companies, those from India and Australia stand out. India and Australian companies accounted for 8 out of 10 top-ranked companies in this list. We have provided the rankings of these companies on their market cap basis. We have included 6 major countries/regions in Asia including Japan, China, Australia, India, Korea, and Southeast Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand).

Keep in mind that although these 56 public companies all provide some sorts of SaaS related products and services, not all of them have a 100% SaaS business model. Rather, for most of these software-related companies, SaaS is becoming a greater portion of their incoming revenues. Among all the public companies, Atlassian Corp (TEAM US) (Australia) is probably the biggest pure-play SaaS company right now with a market cap of US$42.7 billion. The 49 private companies that we have included in this insight tend to be smaller companies but they tend to be more pure-play SaaS providers.

SaaS is becoming more important in companies, our homes, and in our lives due to the accelerating evolution of technology in terms of greater adoption of cloud-based services, smartphones, AI, Big Data, IoT, and increasing programming sophistication that reduces the need for human, manual labor. Adam Smith would be very proud of SaaS today, as massive amounts of global venture capital and start-up funding have tried to accelerate promising SaaS companies as the global competition has forced the very best companies to sprout in this highly competitive market.

In Asia, some of the best companies in the SaaS segment include Atlassian (Australia), After Pay (Australia), Xero (Australia), One Connect (China), Kingdee (China), Kingsoft (China), Douzone Bizon (Korea), Freee KK (Japan), and Rakus (Japan).

The main purpose of this report is as follows:

  • Identify the major players (both public & private) in the highly fragmented SaaS sector in Asia
  • Specify the key trends driving the Asian SaaS industry
  • Provide an initial overview of the key companies in the Asian SaaS industry
  • Highlight the main risks of this industry

 

• Korea, Tech, IPOs, Event-Driven, Small-Caps • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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Chinese Expressways: A Step In The REIT Direction

By | Smartkarma Originals

2020 has been a bumpy journey for Chinese toll roads. China’s State Council first increased the toll-free period over the Chinese New Year to 16 days, up from seven days in a normal year. This was followed by a directive from the Ministry of Transport such that charges for using the toll roads would be waived for users from the 17 February until a later date – an exemption which was finally lifted on the 6 May.

The sector was already being scrutinized after an ETC (E-Toll discount) policy was introduced in July of last year; and a truck toll charge implemented on the 1 January of this year, with respect to toll-by-weight compared to toll-by-vehicle.

Collectively, yield-starved investors have questioned the defensiveness of the sector. Shares are off 22% on average YTD, versus 12% for the HSI.

The New News

On the 30 April, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly announced (Chinese-only) a new pilot for Chinese infrastructure real estate investment trusts (or C-REITs), which are ostensibly a mechanism to fund infrastructure projects such highways and airports; and only for such infrastructure which has been operational for three years.  

Details are still to be fully fleshed out, not least how China’s complex tax regime will be addressed. But it is worth exploring which toll road companies may be best suited to being taken private and repackaged as a REIT.


What’s Original?

The CSRC and NDRC’s announcement of a pilot program for public infrastructure REITs opens the door for the potential restructuring of listed toll road companies.

This in-depth insight canvasses the key Chinese toll road operators listed in Hong Kong, and assesses which companies may be targeted for acquisition, from both a financial and regulatory perspective, to spearhead this new policy.

Quiddity Advisors • Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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Short-Sell Strategies – How to Get Teflon Coated?

By | Smartkarma Originals

This insight has been produced jointly by Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA ​and Supun Walpola ​at LightStream Research ​

  • In this Smartkarma Original, we provide a guide on short-sell strategies employed by short-sellers to identify, analyse, and subsequently target companies. We also provide our recommendations to companies to prevent, detect, and combat short-sell attacks.
  • We believe companies whose share prices have increased significantly within a short period of time and whose valuations are at significant premiums to their peers become vulnerable for short-sell attacks. The share price of the short-sell targets in our sample increased by 89.2% on average from its 52-week low to the date of release of the short-sell report. The EV/Revenue, EV/OP, P/E, and P/B multiples of the short-sell targets in our sample were at premiums of 241.2%, 37.6%, 42.5%, and 118.7% on average over their peers, respectively.
  • Short sellers also seem to target companies that significantly outperform their peers on operating matrices. Short-sellers imply that such outperformance is due to fabricated results. The OP margin of the short-sell targets in our sample were around 4.5x higher than their peers.
  • It is conventional wisdom that insiders cash-out when they are no longer confident about the prospects of the company. Short sellers try to exploit this idea and are often on the lookout for instances where insiders are continuously cashing out, either by way of selling their stake in the company, or through back door transactions like share pledges, collar transactions, and high levels of compensation.
  • Short-sellers show no mercy when it comes to questionable or complex corporate structures like VIE arrangements either. Short-sellers are of the view that such dubious corporate structures enable companies to round trip revenue and assets to fabricate financial results. Short-sellers are also on the lookout for suspicious M&A transactions with related parties, particularly overvalued asset sales to and undervalued asset purchases from insiders.     
  • When a company fakes revenue or profit at the income statement level, it leads to a fake cash problem, i.e. the company then has to forge significant cash balances to match its inflated profit. Short sellers believe that inflated capex or R&D expenses are helpful tools to burn fake cash as these expenses often do not raise any suspicion if they do not generate instant returns.
  • Short-sellers also seem to target companies and insiders that historically have a bad reputation. We also came across several instances where short-sellers have questioned the track record of auditors, underwriters, and appraisers that were employed by the target companies. Short-sellers also consider frequent auditor changes and audit fees that are either too-high or too-low as red-flags.
  • Short-sellers regularly keep an eye out for companies with weaker corporate governance practices. However, some of the cases that we came across in our research suggest that traditional corporate governance matrices have limited relevance in exposing fraudsters in this day and age. Short-sellers now seem to question the true “independence” of independent directors and are sceptical about companies with high board turnover.
  • A short-seller can identify a plethora of red-flags for a company, but a short-sell attack is seldom successful without any smoking-gun evidence. Therefore, short-sellers often thrive on finding that one key piece of evidence that would make their thesis irrefutable. In most of the cases we looked at, this smoking gun evidence has come in the form of alternative filings, which include the likes of filings with the local regulators, credit reports, and tax filings. Short sellers have often used these alternative filings to reconcile reported financials and in some cases to trace the “true” ownership of assets.
  • We believe recent short-sell reports on Luckin Coffee (LK US) and GSX Techedu (GSX US) raise the bar for modern-day short-sellers. The anonymous short-sell report on Luckin was backed by 11,000+ hours of store traffic video and 25,000+ customer receipts while Grizzly’s short-sell report on GSX Techedu used a variety of alternative data sources such as customer reviews, web traffic, keyword search results and app rankings as smoking-gun evidence.
  • Short-seller attacks have become part of today’s investment world and companies should learn to co-exist with them and more importantly, to defend these attacks, companies should have a plan in place while strengthening their fundamentals and improving corporate disclosures.  
  • In order to prevent short-seller attacks we recommend companies to 1) be honest about any errors and make due restatements to reported financials, 2) adopt conservative accounting practices, 3) avoid providing aggressive earnings guidance, 4) provide detailed disclosures when deviating from accepted accounting standards, 5) avoid withholding or delaying bad news such as product failures, litigation, profit warnings, layoffs, etc. from the market, 6) improve corporate governance measures, 7) and improve company disclosures particularly regarding company acquisitions, divestitures, and capital investments.
  • If a company has always been committed to providing complete disclosures and its shareholders are kept informed about both good and bad news regarding a company, the best way to approach the shorts may be to completely ignore them. However, a company should respond to a short sell attack if the allegations laid out by the shorts were unreasonable or misleading or if it is impacting the company’s valuation.

LightStream Research • Equity Analyst • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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China Internet Healthcare: Massive Potential Awaits for Further Policy Tailwinds

By | Smartkarma Originals

We are positive on the long term prospects of China internet healthcare industry and expect robust growth outlook, driven by large & fast growing users base, increasing adoption and penetration rate, supported by government favorable policies. However, in the near term, only pharma e-commerce business has a valid monetization model & is proven to have reliable revenue stream for leading players, such as Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) ; While online consultation player Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and internet hospital provider WeDoctor are still struggling to find sustainable profit model, due to certain policies limitation & lower paying client conversion, the massive growth potentials are likely unlocked by further policy tailwinds such as online prescription drug sales, insurance reimbursement of online medical services, in our view. 

In the order of stock preference, we prefer Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) with its dominate position in the pharma e-commerce market, distinctive edges in users acquisition from synergies from Alibaba Group (9988 HK); 3) best positioned to benefit robust growth upon the opening of online prescription drugs sales with its integrated business model. With >70% 3-year sales CAGR forecast, our DCF valuation suggests margin of safety of 22%.

With its leading position on online consultation, we believe Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) will continue to enjoy fast users growth thanks to its supported from Ping An group. Yet, the lower paying client conversation rate & large revenue reliance from Ping An group concerned us. At current level, we believe the street has over priced in the potential policy benefits & growth potential. With ~38% sales CAGR estimates, our DCF valuation reveal potential downside of 30%. 

Our proprietary scorecard rating system also suggests Ali Health stands ahead of peers, with larger MOAT, more comprehensive product & services offerings, higher sales CAGR, better profitability, more efficiency (higher customer acquisition growth, lower acquisition cost), higher productivity. 

• Asia-ex Japan, Senior Healthcare Analyst • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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China Environment Sector Deep Dive: Solid Waste Treatment

By | Smartkarma Originals

We are positive towards the outlook of China’s solid waste treatment industry and believe the current share price level is a very good entry point, especially after the approval of the revisions in “Solid Waste Pollution Environmental Prevention and Treatment Law of the People’s Republic of China” by National People’s Congress in May which will become effective on 1 Sep. In addition to the Law which will lead to an improved operating landscape of the industry, the increase in waste volume stimulated by urbanisation and e-commerce, growth in waste treatment capability, potential for industry consolidation and favourable financial infrastructure are the factors that presented the industry with tremendous opportunities.

There are still risks including heightened competition due to fragmented industry structure, potential change in on-grid tariff and subsidies and weak power demand due to economic slowdown. However, the depressed valuations of the sector after sustained underperformance offer good value with long-term structural change in the industry, in our view. We rank the five major Hong Kong listed and A-share companies in the sector in the following order: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK), China Everbright Intl (257 HK), Zhejiang Weiming Environment (603568 CH), and China Everbright Greentech (1257 HK).

What’s Original?

This Smartkarma Original takes a detailed look on the revised “Solid Waste Pollution Environmental Prevention and Treatment Law” and reads on the implications to the major listed waste treatment companies.  In addition to discussions on the revenue and profit drivers of the individual companies, we will also assess the outlook for improvement in returns, and compared the relative valuations of individual companies within the sector based on their P/B vs. ROE and PEG ratios.

Since the waste treatment industry is highly fragmented, we analyse the possibility of consolidation as a potential way to improve sector return levels. Lastly, we will take this opportunity to introduce a leading A-share waste treatment company – Zhejiang Weiming Environment (603568 CH), which has recorded a marvelous share price performance – up 95% over the last three years and 28% YTD.

• China Analyst – Onshore Credit, Equity Long-Short • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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Insider Diagnostics: A Repository of Short-Sell Target Asian Companies & Associated Key Insiders

By | Smartkarma Originals

In this Original, we have created a repository of Asian companies and associated key insiders targeted by prominent short-sellers, over the last decade, to help serve as a tool for insider diagnostics.

What’s Original?

We track 19 prominent short-sellers who in turn have targeted about 115+ Asian companies over the past decade. Below we provide a detailed database of these companies along with the corresponding short-sell thesis, price moves since the short-sell report and outcome of the short-sell attack. We also track the current whereabouts of the 500+ key insiders associated with these companies.

How and to Whom would this be Useful? 

Insider Diagnostics (Quality of Management) and Accounting Diagnostics are two key pillars of any forensic analysis assessment. This Original, with a focus on insider diagnostics, further bolsters our prior Original focused on accounting diagnostics, A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia. Together, these two Originals are intended to serve as a comprehensive toolkit for investors, analysts, corporates, auditors, regulators, exchanges, media, etc. looking to conduct forensic analysis on Asian Companies.

Insight Flow:

  • Prominent Short-Sellers (Targeting Asian Companies)
  • Target Companies
  • Key Insiders
  • High Risk Insiders & Associated Companies
  • Other Notable Insiders & Associated Companies
  • Notable External Agencies
    • Does Presence of Global Renowned Auditors/Investment Banks imply Strong Governance?
  • Key Limitations

Please note that most of the repository content in this Original is in three key tables in the “Target Companies” and “Key Insiders” section. These tables are labeled as – 1) List of Target Companies, 2) Short-Seller Thesis on Individual Companies and 3) List of Key Insiders: Role in the Target Company & Current Whereabouts. Note that given the large amount of data and text in these tables, we have provided pagination and search functionality in these tables for ease of use and focused viewing. We have also provided these in the excel format. Please refer to the attachments section of this insight to download the excel files.

• Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India • (Opens in a new window) ⧉

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