Equity Derivatives

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Alibaba (9988 HK): Unpacking the Week’s Savvy Top Options Trades

Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Popular Strategies: Over 35% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Bullish and bearish views prevail at equal rates, with very few market-neutral views expressed.
Top Trades: Some market participants were betting on a short term re-bound after the post-earnings drop. Others take a bearish view with finely calibrated medium-term hedges. Trade-examples are presented.

2. Alibaba (9988 HK): Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility

Implied Volatility Trends:Alibaba Group Holding’s (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has significantly receded to the 37th percentile after its 15 May earnings, reflecting a substantial implied vola crush.
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The implied volatility term structure is now slightly upward-sloping with longer-dated options commanding a small premium. Skew dynamics indicate cheaper puts.
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is greatest in the June and September expiries. Short term strikes are concentrated near or at the money.

3. HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.
Consensus rating: predominantly “Buy” from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.
The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025.

4. CATL (3750.HK): Rich Vols, Strong Start, and a Tactical Hedge

CATL’s options debut in Hong Kong has been active, with strong Call interest and rising open interest suggesting early investor enthusiasm.
Implied vols are holding firm post-listing and appear rich —potentially justifiable given the trading dynamics and catalysts.
We recommend a tactical hedge structure that skews return favourably, targeting recent highs and protecting against downside drift.

5. China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.

6. KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook After Index Rebalancing

Korea Exchange announced its KOSPI 200 rebalance changes on 27 May, Sanghyun Park and Douglas Kim wrote extensively about this, here we want to focus purely on the tactical strategy.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX pulled back last week, then surged on Monday and stagnated on Tuesday, the index has plenty of room to go higher according to our model.
According to our model, the number of rallies vastly offset the number of pullbacks when this pattern is encountered (=pullbacks are rare), this could be read as a bullish indication.

7. HSI Index Options Weekly (May 26-30): Choppy Tape, One Strike Rules Them All

HSI traded sideways for a third straight week as macro headlines swirled and tariffs turned internally litigious.
Volatility drifted lower, with 1M implied vol dropping below its 1-year median for the first time in months.
Call volumes were significantly higher led by one strike in particular.

8. All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

By the time this insight is published, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.
The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112
If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.

9. Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels.
Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks.

10. TLT – From Hedge to Risk Asset: Behavior Continues to Shift

TLT is showing signs of shifting behavior, no longer acting like a classic flight-to-quality asset.
One-Month implied vol sits above average, though not at extreme levels.
The evolving vol structure suggests caution for those expecting traditional bond market flight to quality behavior.

May 25

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – May 25, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View: Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).
Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.
Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for Toyota Industries (6201 JP)could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.

2. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup: Buy-This-Dip

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = “Hold”.
The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.
This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.

3. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumored Phase 2 Buyback Confirmation

As reported by Sanghyun Park, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) ‘s phase 2 buyback disposal plan appears to be virtually finalized (or will be finalized soon – not official yet).
As always, we’ll assess what our tactical models suggest about the trend from here—interpreted alongside the latest catalysts.
We have been monitoring Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) for a while: the stock has been bottoming, then flat for a while, rallied modestly, now a minor pullback… time to BUY?

4. BYD (1211 HK) Outlook: Near-Term Upside Still Possible, but Rally Looks Stretched…

BYD (1211 HK) has been rallying hard since its 309.80 bottom in early april, the stock closed at 465.20 last Friday, a +50% rally! Probably well deserved.
This insight analyzes the short-term tactical outlook on a WEEKLY time period basis. Our model finds that the stock is currently very overbought, however some upside is still possible.
You may want to consider hedging your bets with some puts (probably cheap at this point), 1-2 weeks expiry, to protect against a (probably mild), upcoming pullback.

5. Tencent (700 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Trades from HKEX Options Trading

Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Calendar and Diagonal Spreads make up a quarter of all strategies. Several examples are presented incorporating upfront cost, upfront credit, or zero-cost combinations.
While there is a bias towards bullish strategies, 26% of all strategies express a market-neutral view in the form of Straddles, Strangles, Butterflies or Condors.

6. Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility is currently cheap, trading in its 14th percentile, while Tencent (700 HK) approaches its twelve-months high.
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: A pronounced skew smile and a relatively flat term structure make spreads and calendar / diagonal spreads attractive strategies.
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity can be found in the monthly May expiry and the Quarterly expiries. The historically low implied volatility facilitates longer term positions.

7. 10Y US Treasury Futures Rally: Tactical Outlook & Key Profit Zones

10Y US Treasury Futures started to rally on Thursday, after the House of Reps approved Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill
The Trump administration has dismissed concerns that the latest bill will harm the nation’s financial standing, even after the U.S. lost its top-tier credit rating last week.
This is a brief insight to try to identify potential profit targets and duration of this rally.

8. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Indo-Pak Ceasefire! Large Markdowns in IV-Skew-Smile Triggered

Indo-Pak ceasefire triggers risk-premia markdowns – Monthly IVs -4.0 vols lower, Skew & Smile get compressed
Vol-Regime stays in “High & Up” state with high likelihood of switching to “High & Down” in the upcoming week.
IV term-structure flattened as the week progressed. Leaving front-end vol-differentials in Contango & Back-end Backwardation now eased to +0.60 vols.

May 18

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – May 18, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following $7B AI Chip Deal with Saudi Arabia

NVIDIA stock rose over 3% Wednesday morning, after news of a reported multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, announced during an investment forum attended by President Trump.
Nvidia will supply hundreds of thousands of AI chips over five years to Humain, a new Saudi AI venture backed by the $925B Public Investment Fund.
Bank of America raised NVDA price target to $160 from $150. A Bloomberg report suggested the UAE may buy over 1 million Nvidia AI chips under a potential U.S. deal.

2. China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook

Our previous insight indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but China Mobile (941 HK) hasn’t really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.
Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model’s Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally…).
Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we’re not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.

3. BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation

Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.
Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.

4. Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.

5. TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.

6. KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections

In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.
The KOSPI 200 INDEX on Tuesday closed at 347.17, entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models.
Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote, our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.

May 11

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – May 11, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. CSI 300 Index: Tactical Outlook Following the Labor Day Holiday

Following an extended holiday beginning May 1st, the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) resumes trading on May 6th.
The WEEKLY close before the holiday—during a shortened trading week—was modestly negative. However, the index would need to decline to 3697 or lower to trigger a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Since the index has already closed 1 week down, our time model suggests there is a good chance (62%) it could go up this week.

2. Toyota (7203 JP) Post-Earnings Outlook Amid ¥180B Estimated U.S. Tariff Cost

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) expects U.S. tariffs, material costs and a weak(er) dollar to dent profits. The automaker estimated the levies directly costing it 180 billion yen in April/May.
The stock fell after the company reported its fiscal-fourth-quarter results on Thursday. Guidance for the coming year came in lower than expected, with tariffs taking a bite out of profits.
In a previous insight we flagged the stock as overbought; those model targets remain valid. Here, we analyze updated support to gauge the pullback’s potential depth.

3. NIFTY INDEX Outlook: Back in an Uptrend – Where To Buy This Dip

In our previous NIFTY Index insight we highlighted rally targets in the 24039-24496 zone. The index reached 24589 last week, double-topped this week, then closed the week down at 24008.
The index was ultra-overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the pullback was overdue. This pullback is a buy opportunity.
This insight discusses key support zones to buy and profit taking targets for the rally.

4. TESLA (TSLA US) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumors of Elon Musk’s Replacement

2025 has been a tumultuous year for Tesla (TSLA US), the stock struggled due to weakening sales, and CEO Elon Musk’s role in the US government has damaged the brand.
Rumors of Tesla’s board seeking to replace Elon Musk are likely unfounded. A leadership change could backfire. The stock is up 26% since Musk signaled reduced involvement in government affairs.
Despite rising competition from BYD (1211 HK) and others, Tesla (TSLA US) remains a top pure-play EV maker. The current pullback could present a potential buying opportunity.

5. APPLE (AAPL US) Post-Earnings Outlook: A Potential Tactical Buy

Apple (AAPL US) started a mild pullback after releasing its earnings on May 1st. We think this pullback may be a BUY opportunity.
Some analysts believe the Trump administration’s tariffs will ultimately prove transitory. While near-term impacts are surely expected for Apple (AAPL US) , they’re probably short-term in nature.
Our model suggests a potential buying opportunity in Apple (AAPL US) may be approaching. This insight outlines the tactical considerations behind that view.

6. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / INDO-PAK CONFLICT SPURS LOCAL RISK-PREMIA HIGHER. IV @ +18.0%

Onset of IND-PAK military conflict spurs IVs higher to +18% levels. Vol Regime model holds in “High & Up” state.
Skew extends to extreme levels, RRs trades from -5.0 to -7.0 vols. Vol Term-structure is now flat in the front-end & in Backwardation at the back-end of the curve.
Tactical Implications: Avoid Risk-premia harvesting as “High & Up” vol-state prevails.

May 04

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – May 4, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP) in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.

2. Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Diagonal Spreads account for nearly 30% of all strategies. Many of these strategies sell short term risk to finance longer term protection.
Several structures hedge against low probability tail events. One such strategy traded 100 contracts.

3. Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 70th percentile, while realized volatility exceeds 80% (96th percentile).
A relatively flat term structure and skew render Calendar and Diagonal Spreads interesting strategies.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across all expiries.

4. ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

5. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.

6. Nasdaq 100 (NDX INDEX) Outlook: Is The Bear Market Over or Not?

The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) stalled this week. The week is not over yet, but let’s take a closer look at our tactical model to assess short-term scenarios.
Obviously tariffs will impact the economy but often markets can defy rationality, leading to short-term pain if we’re positioned incorrectly.
This insight evaluates how far the rally could extend and how deep a pullback might go, this can be of interest to option desks or to anyone looking to hedge.

7. BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.
Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in BYD (1211 HK). A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout.

8. Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Strategic Opportunities in Options Trading

Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for Tencent (700 HK) has declined from recent peaks, aligning near its 3-year median, indicating a potential stabilization in market expectations.
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The term structure is largely flat with a slight uplift due to the upcoming earnings on 14 May 2025. A pronounced volatility smile favors spreads.
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in near-term (April, May) and quarterly expiries, with call open interest slightly outweighing puts (48-60%).

9. Tencent (700 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 70% of all strategies. With a bias towards bullish views, Bull Call Spreads outnumber Bear Put Spreads by 2:1.
Lottery Trades: following observations of such strategies in other stocks, a lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. Trade size tends to be sizable.

10. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime

IVs rise as markets return from holiday-truncated week, moving from 14.2% to 15.8%. Monthly contracts benefit most as they capture multiple tier-1 event risks.
“High & Up” vol-state persists. Though there is a high probability of switching to “High & Down” with slight IV stabilization.
TACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Avoid negative Gamma/ Smile/ Vega exposure. Wait for vol-regime shift before initiating new risk-premia harvesting structures

Apr 27

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Apr 27, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. BYD (1211 HK) Positioning Ahead of Q1 2025 Results

BYD (1211 HK) will release its Q1 2025 results on April 25. The company has issued a positive profit alert, projecting net income around RMB 8.5 – 10 billion.
Expected earnings per share ranging from RMB 2.91 to RMB 3.42, up from RMB 1.57 in the same period last year.
Our model currently does not indicate the stock is overbought, but a surprise pullback is always possible around earnings releases, so we will discuss also support/buy zones.

2. China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook Following Q1 2025 Results

On April 22, 2025, China Mobile (941 HK) reported its Q1 2025 financial results, revenues substantially unchanged, but increase in net income and subscriber growth indicates resilience in its operations.
The initial market reaction suggests mild disappointment, the stock retreated to a low <80 intra-week, then closed the week down at 80.85.
Our price model shows an oversold state, while the time model indicates there is room for another week down, possibly a buy-the-dip opportunity (3 weeks down should be the limit).

3. HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk

In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.

4. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Bearish and Bullish strategies balance each other, with only 12% of trades expressing a neutral view, such as Iron Condors. Some strategies were traded in unusually large size.
Diagonal Spreads account for over 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies. An inverted volatility term structure, aka backwardation, supports calendar and diagonal spreads.

5. Meituan (3690 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Over the past five trading days, Meituan (3690 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Long volatility strategies dominate, with the ratio of bearish vs. bullish positions approximately 2:1.
Diagonal Spreads account for 25% of all strategies and can make for near self-financing strategies.

6. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Volatility Insights and Analysis Identify Spread Opportunities

Xiaomi’s (1810 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 90th percentile, while realized volatility is exceptionally high, exceeding 100% (100th percentile).
The options market exhibits an inverted term structure (backwardation) favoring calendar or diagonal spreads, with a slightly negatively sloped skew supporting put and call spreads.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across most expiries, except for March 2026, which is heavily call-dominated.

7. HSBC (5.HK) Q1 Earnings: Big Move, Rich Vol, Hedge Opportunity Emerges

HSBC has rallied 19.8% from the April low and is up > 13% year-to-date. Against this backdrop we analyze implied vol, implied jump and post-earning price patterns.
Q1 is typically HSBC’s least volatile earnings quarter, with most moves falling short of current jump expectations.
We suggest a short-vega hedge structure that benefits from elevated implied vol.

8. Meituan (3690 HK): Options Insights and Analysis, Skew Shift Amid Earnings Calm

One-Month implied volatility for Meituan (3690 HK) has decreased from recent highs to around its three-year median, while realized volatility, a lagging indicator, remains significantly higher at the 87th percentile.
The term structure is flat, with May and June implied volatilities nearly identical, indicating no significant impact from the upcoming earnings announcement in early June.
Open interest is spread over the next nine months, with April calls concentrated at strikes 145 to 150 and deep out of the money calls at strikes 180 to 200.

9. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols

A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.
Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.
Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.

10. Sinopec (386) Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

With Sinopec down 8.47% since the last quarter, we take an in-depth look at price patterns, implied vol, and the earnings implied jump compared to historical outcomes.
Implied vols stand out across a variety of metrics including relative valuation.
Examining average absolute price moves across quarters, Q1 tends to have the second-largest average absolute move.

Apr 20

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Apr 20, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following Surprise $5B Hit From China Chip Export Ban

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) said it will take a $5.5 billion financial hit after Washington fresh restrictions on H20 AI chips designed for the Chinese market.
The Trump Administration’s move comes as as a surprise, the U.S. now requires a special export license for these chips, but historically, no such licenses have ever been granted.
Some estimates Nvidia may lose $10 billion in revenue, as most of the affected chips are already manufactured and now unsellable, plus the ban could benefit Chinese competitors like Huawei.

2. Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).
Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.

3. NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook (Post-Easter Targets)

The strong rebound from the crash low signals resilience in the NIFTY Index, and notably, the index appears to be staging a short-term breakout from its recent downtrend.
Is this the start of a rally? It’s hard to say, given the current economic uncertainty—however, our model suggests the index could extend its gains for another week.
The rally should be limited, a good profit target according to our model is between 24039 and 24496.

4. TSMC (2330.TT) Tactical Outlook Before 1Q25 Earnings Release

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has lost nearly 30% of its value since its mid-January peak—half of that decline occurred by early March, prior to Trump’s tariff announcement.
The stock is very oversold, although it bounced off its lows last week, and reached 903 this Monday. This insight will analyze how far this rebound can go.
Earnings will be reported on April 17. Our model suggests the stock has room to move in either direction—the results will be the catalyst. Check out our targets.

5. Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Volatility Spikes, Skew Steepens, Hedges Reassessed

Implied vol spiked sharply on Monday, marking one of the largest single-day moves since the pandemic.
We discuss the move in skew and suggest a course of action for previously recommended hedges.
The magnitude of the implied vol move is examined in the context of recent price behavior—and whether it holds.

6. TSLA Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

A detailed analysis of price patterns, implied vol and the earnings implied jump in TSLA options compared to historical outcomes.
Pre- and post-earnings price movements are examined to assess directional tendencies, patterns and magnitude.
Price returns in the 1-month following earnings show a distinctly different pattern between beats and misses.

7. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Risk Premia Catches up with Global Counterparts in Spite of Truncated Week

Risk premia in Nifty50 Options catches up with Global Markets as IVs spike from sub-12% to 24% – levels last seen during 2024 National Elections.
Vol-Regime switches from “Low & Up” state to “High & Up”. Term-structure swings into Backwardation. Front-end risk premiums elevated in spite of truncated upcoming week.
Tactical Implications: (1) Use IV-spike to flatten +ve Vega exposure. (2) Avoid -ve Gamma, Vol harvesting structures. (3) Front-end/ Back-end Calendars recommended as extreme curve inversion expected to normalize.

8. Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.
Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.
Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.

9. Kospi Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Skew Shifts Steepens and Positioning Signals

Price action was volatile this week, marked by two large moves and a notable pickup in vol of vol.
We examine the material steepening of skew observed over the course of the week.
USD/KRW broke its recent range, reinforcing signs that USD assets may be losing their traditional flight to quality appeal.

10. HSI Index Options Weekly (Apr 14-17): Volatility Cools, But the Floor May Hold

A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, including option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
The recent cooling in volatility may be more of a pause than a reversal—we explore why that might be.
Trading activity continued to fade as the market works through the volatility of recent weeks.

Apr 13

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Apr 13, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. CSI 300 Index Outlook After Trump’s Threat of 50% Tariff on China

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) was less impacted than other indices by the global sell-off: on Monday it was down only -10% from the recent top.
On Monday Donald Trump posted that if China does not withdraw immediately its +34% tariffs increase, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of +50%, effective April 9th!
Although the CSI 300 Index is more insulated than other indices from global market volatility, it is not completely immune and remains vulnerable to the impact of US’s tariff threats.

2. Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.
Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the Nikkei 225 Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.
The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.

3. NIFTY Index Rally Outlook After Trump’s Tariffs PAUSE

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) post-crash bounce peaked around 4.4% before stalling—mirroring the fading rebounds seen across global indices.
The index has yet to reach levels attractive for shorting, but with two days remaining before the weekend, any positive tariff-related news will push the index towards the targets.
This insight highlights key price levels for initiating tactical shorts or exiting longs, depending on the tariffs scenario that, once again, changed dramatically from one day to the next.

4. Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different. UPDATE

We revisit key cross-asset signals as traditional safe havens fail to respond in familiar ways.
The past 8 days have delivered a combination of asset moves with few, if any, historical parallels.
With trust in U.S. safe haven assets under pressure, we explore emerging themes and ramifications.

5. The Beat Ideas: Jindal Steel & Power, A 31000Cr Mega Capex Plan

The company is in the final stages of commissioning its INR 31,000 crore capex plan, accompanied by strong promoter buying in recent months
The new capacity is expected to improve margins through deeper backward integration while also expanding its value-added product mix.
With secured fuel, captive power, and value-added downstream capacity, it is poised to emerge as an infrastructure powerhouse. A steel price recovery would further amplify gains.

6. Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 01 – 04): Lowest Implied Vol Amid a Global Meltdown

Nifty remains the global market with the lowest implied volatility and has been outperforming its peers in this sell off.
We assess where Nifty is likely to open on Monday and the expected impact on implied vol and discuss whether hedging should be considered.
We highlight the absence of a flight-to-quality bid in this global meltdown and what that could mean for relative returns vs. the SP500.

7. HSCEI Index Options Weekly (Apr 7-11): Vol Reset, Skew Reprices, and 8,000 Strike in Focus

Brutal start to the week, with the holiday-shortened calendar and continued global weakness weighing on Monday’s open.
Implied vol surged early, with skew steepening and tail demand reflected in out-of-the-money Put pricing
We highlight significant activity at the 8,000 strike and its implications for near-term spot and vol dynamics.

8. Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market

Reliance Industries (RIL IN) has relaunched Campa Cola with a disruptive INR 10 price tag, targeting Bharat through regional branding, aggressive retail margins, and deep distribution.
Campa’s revival is shaking up India’s INR 50,000 crore soft drink market, challenging Pepsi and Coke with rapid share gains and frenzied rural demand.
This is not nostalgia, it’s Ambani’s Jio-style FMCG disruption. Expect more brand revivals, deeper pricing wars, and a new cola war driven from the grassroots.

9. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Profit Targets After Q2 Results

Mark Chadwick highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP) ‘s outlook in 2 recent insights, before and after Q2 earnings: his DCF model for this stock suggests roughly a +13% upside.
This week the stock rallied from the crash at the start of the week, closing a bit higher than the previous week (it had closed 1 week down, CC=-1).
Assuming the stock may rally further from here, pushed by good Q2 results, let’s have a look to our model to analyze some profit targets.

10. #1 Leadership Bytes(07-Apr-25)

Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN), Metropolis Healthcare Limited (METROHL IN), Hitachi Energy India (POWERIND IN) have shared major updates on expansion plans, acquisitions, order growth, and strategic shifts across sectors.
Each company is taking strategic steps to expand market share, strengthen operations, and tap into emerging growth sectors.
These updates highlight diverse growth strategies, from Dixon’s manufacturing expansion to Apollo’s focus on defense, suggesting a balanced approach across market leaders.

Apr 06

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Apr 6, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

2. Global Stocks Outlook: Where Is the Bottom for This Crash?

Analysis of the NIFTY, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI 200, S&P/ASX 200, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 stock indices: where is the bottom for the global stock market rout?
As explained in this insight, our models have been battle-tested since 2008. While they can’t predict the future, they provide valuable insights for identifying market bottoms during crashes.
What follows is a focused analysis of each market index we track, aimed at identifying potential bottoms amid extreme sell-offs, helping position ahead of the next Bear Market rally/reversal.

3. Tencent (700 HK): Volatility Plays and Skew Top Trades

Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
With short-term implied volatility below its median, long volatility strategies dominate, with a balanced mix of bullish and bearish positions.
Open interest spread across monthly and quarterly expiries, with some notable strategies taking advantage of longer expiration dates, and a steep negatively sloped skew $475.

4. SP500: Friday Sell-Offs, the VIX, and a Bit of 1987

Drops greater than 5% on a Friday are rare, we examine historical returns after such events.
We revisit 1987 price action and reconstructed VIX levels to add historical context.
With circuit breakers now in place and political volatility elevated, we assess what today’s sell-off might mean for the next trading day.

5. Global Markets: Why This Sell-Off Is Different and What It Signals

The SP500 and DXY both dropped yesterday—historically an unusual development.
We examine the SP500-DXY relationship alongside long-term shifts in capital flow and what this could mean for global markets vs SP500.
A distinct performance trend that began in 2009 may now be in the process of reversing.

6. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / SEBI Intervenes Stalling Expiry Day Shift. IVs Pushed to 1Yr Lows.

SEBI intervenes on constantly changing Option contract specifications. NSE halts expiry day shift indefinitely & awaits clarity from regulator.
IVs slid lower to 11% levels – extended weekend being a primary factor. Risk premia is nearing historically low extremes. “Low & Down” state persists for the Vol-Regime model.
Tactical Implications: (1) Scale back Vol harvesting structures as “Low & Down” Vol-state persists. (2) Reverse Calendars for long gamma exposure to upcoming events. Utilize Low IVs & curve Contango.

7. TESLA’S Outlook After Rumors Elon Musk Will Step Back from DOGE

Politico just published a report saying that Elon Musk is about to Step Back from DOGE, if true, this could impact somehow Tesla (TSLA US) stock price.
Death threats and the spate vandalism directed at Tesla (TSLA US)‘s cars, plus Musk being viewed as a potential political liability by members of the Trump Administration are the drivers.
Tesla (TSLA US) brand has been heavily damaged by Musk involvement in politics, sales are falling gobally and competitors like BYD (1211 HK) are rising. The stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT.

8. Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, S&P 500 futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.
Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the Nikkei 225, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).
Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20’s to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.

9. Nifty Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Sticky Implied Vol and a Tactical Hedge Ahead of Tariffs

Weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest.
Implied vol remained stable, and we discuss why it may be sticky at current levels.
With global weakness and the upcoming April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement, we reiterate a tactical hedge.

10. April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals

Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.
In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.
We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.

Mar 30

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Mar 30, 2025

This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades – Strategies That Stand Out.

This Insight analyses Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. With implied volatility below its median and below realized volatility, all strategies reviewed are long volatility.
Almost 20% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Diagonal spreads can even earn premium in the current volatility environment. A live strategy is examined.

2. Hang Seng Index FAF Calculation Change: Buy The Dip!

As reported by Travis Lundy , the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) Committee changed the way float is calculated for Secondary Listings in Hang Seng indices.
This action is expected to add US$2.7bn of buying to some names- read Travis Lundy’s insight for more details on this.
The HSI INDEX is currently down 3 weeks, and quite OVERSOLD, buying the dip, at this point makes a lot of sense.

3. BYD (1211 HK) Profit Targets After Record-Breaking Earnings

BYD (1211 HK) posted a record 2024 net profit of 40.25B yuan ($5.55B) as revenue surged 29% to 777B yuan ($107.2B), beating analyst forecasts of $5.47B and $105.6B.
Notably, BYD’s revenue topped Tesla’s $97.7B reported on Jan. 30. The Chinese automaker is now among the biggest in the world.
On March 4, our BYD’s insightcorrectly suggested to BUY the stock below 340 (now trading above 400). This insight will try to determine profit targets for the current rally.

4. BYD (1211 HK) Earnings Today: Anticipated Price Movements and Options Insights

Today,BYD (1211 HK) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results. Timing: 24 March 2025, after market close.
Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement is above the historically recorded movement.
Implied volatility and options strategies: Discussion of implied volatility term structure and option strategies.

5. NIFTY Outlook: Possible Breakout as Options Expiry Moves to Monday

The NIFTY Index had rallied quite hard the week before last week, then stalled last week, however its looks like maybe is changing in its trend structure, maybe a breakout…
However the breakout may have to wait a bit more, as the NIFTY is overbought WEEKLY according to our model: before the uptrend resumes, there will be a pullback.
Last: as written by AceGama Advisors the WEEKLY options expiry will be moved from Thursday to Monday, starting in April 2025, impacting the market. Read their insight for detailed analysis.

6. Tata Motors: Is the Worst Finally Over? A Turnaround & Demerger Play

The Chinese slowdown and JLR’s ICE phase-out pressure near-term margins, but Indian PV growth and EV leadership offer a strong domestic counterbalance.
Tata Motors is demerging its Commercial Vehicle and Finance arms to sharpen focus and unlock value across its core Passenger Vehicle and JLR businesses.
Tata Motors is transitioning from a cyclical turnaround story to a long-term structural play on India’s mobility and global EV transformation.

7. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Expiry Day Shifted to Mondays – Expect Major Changes in Vol Dynamics

Effective 05.04.2025, Expiry for Options will be moved from Thursday to Monday. Premiums still adjusting to retroactive implementation of the technical change.
Option markets shun additional risk premia on account of U.S. trade tensions – IVs remain subdued. Vol-state transitioned to “Low & Down” & term-structure pushed further into Contango.
IVs were higher on the weekly open, but premiums decayed rapidly post U.S. Fed event risk. Skew has unwound its earlier compression.

8. The Beat Ideas: InterGlobe Aviation- Growth Via Fleet Expansion and International Ambitions

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) placed a record aircraft order and announced plans to double its size by 2030, including entry into long-haul international routes via Airbus A350s.
This signals a shift from being a low-cost, short-haul leader to a global aviation player aiming for 40% international capacity by FY30.
IndiGo is no longer just a domestic LCC story: its scale, global ambitions, and diversification make it a long-term structural compounder in aviation.

9. Bank Of China (3988 HK/601988 CH) Earnings on 26/3: Anticipated Price Movements and Options Insights

Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) /Bank of China (601988 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 26 March 2025, after market close.
Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement is above the historically recorded movement.
Implied Volatility, Options Strategies and Dividends: Discussion of implied volatility term structure and option strategies. Dividends are now semi-annual.

10. JD.com (9618 HK): Strategic Highlights and Market View from HKEX Top Trades