Brief Equities Bottom-Up: CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH): Encouraging Initial Jul Duty Free Figures from New Hainan Policy and more

In this briefing:

  1. CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH): Encouraging Initial Jul Duty Free Figures from New Hainan Policy
  2. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Further To Run
  3. AEON Financial Services – ASEAN Weakness Results In Dividend Cut
  4. King Yuan Electronics Co(2449 TT) – Time To Buy On Robust Demand For 5G, AI, and CMOS Image Sensor
  5. Revisiting Mitr Phol Group: Erawan and Banpu

1. CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH): Encouraging Initial Jul Duty Free Figures from New Hainan Policy

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The average of Rmb64m daily duty free sales in Hainan Island for 1-7 Jul, as released by the China Customs, is 72% higher than the daily sales of the Hainan outlets of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTGDF) in FY19. In our view, this is a positive reflection of the outlook of the company’s duty free business as driven by the favourable duty free policy put into effect on 1 Jul. The increase in the number of categories of high-valued duty free items will also have positive impact to CTGDF’s margin going forward.

Our forecasts suggested that CTGDF’s core EPS will reach a CAGR of 26% between FY19 and FY22. We believe that such projections, as based on the 1-7 Jul figures, are likely to be conservative as during such period: 1.) visitors from Beijing are still significantly affected by travel restriction due to the capital’s COVID-19 cases; 2.) most schools have not yet started the summer vacation; and 3.) the average spending of ~Rmb10,000 is still far from the new quota of Rmb100,000 annually.

2. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Further To Run

* Solid Prospects: Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing’s (388.HK) [HKEx] share price has increased HKD 152.40 (72.1%) since its pandemic panic trough of March 21, 2020. The run appears to price in the entire suite of US-listed mainland Chinese ADRs to be ambitiously shifted to HKEx along with market velocity. HKEx looks to be the beneficiary of derivatives and ETF business development, and the IPO listing share for HKEx;

*June Ahead of Expectations: HKEx June volumes were ahead of expectations in both the cash and the derivatives markets; and

*Just Pay The Dividend: HKEx is sitting on an enormous level of excess cash of over USD 3 bn which likely will be managed more properly when a less deal happy CEO takes over the helm by October 2021. 

3. AEON Financial Services – ASEAN Weakness Results In Dividend Cut

* Poor Operating Result:Aeon Financial Service (8570.JP) [AFS] reported a FY 1Q20 operating loss of JPY 0.8 bn, and a net loss of JPY 1.1 bn. The poor result was driven by JPY 30.7 bn in net loss provisions, as credit quality across AFS deteriorated well beyond expectations resultant of the global slowdown attributed to COVID-19;

* ASEAN Risk: Aeon Thana Sinsap (ATS.TB) [ATS], AFS’ 54.3% owned subsidiary) reported a 46% YOY decline results to THB 530 mn, as ATS temporarily closed 70 branches for about six weeks through mid-May due to COVID-19, and offered credit assistance to customers in line with the Bank of Thailand’s relief measures. Aeon Credit Service Berhad (ACSM.HK) reported results of MYR 26.3 mn  – declining 69% YOY in 1Q to MYR 26.3 mn. The Malaysian government’s Movement Control Order (MCO) to prevent the spread of COVID-19 had a negative impact on local business activities,

*Dividend Cut: FY 2/21 DPS guidance of JPY 23 is a sharp reduction in DPS – but in line with the projected profit decline and works out to a dividend payout ratio of 50%-100%. This was a negative surprise as AFS had made a convincing argument for dividend stability at the FY 2/20 earnings briefing. If a 2nd wave of COVID-19 occurs, we’d expect the dividend to decline to zero.  

4. King Yuan Electronics Co(2449 TT) – Time To Buy On Robust Demand For 5G, AI, and CMOS Image Sensor

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In our view, KYEC embraces 5G migration cycle at infrastructure base stations and smartphones, as well as many other IoT devices, RF filter/PA, CMOS image sensors and server chips. We expect KYEC to post double digit YoY revenue growth in 2020. As such, we initiate coverage on KYEC with a Buy call and 12-month TP of TWD50.

5. Revisiting Mitr Phol Group: Erawan and Banpu

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We visited three companies in the Mitr Phol Group, namely hotel chain Erawan, the  and Thailand’s largest coal producer Banpu. This is a quick run-down.

  • Erawan reported net loss of Bt77m in Q1’20 and EBITDA contraction of 63% to Bt224m. The company closed its Thai hotels since April and Manila-based ones since May 19.
  • Cost cutting: The company plans to cut lease payments by 20-30% and also postpone debt repayments to the banks. They also plan to cut investments by 50%.
  • Banpu Power reported healthy EBITDA of Bt1.77bn (up 10% YoY) on the back of Bt1.84bn  (+5% YoY) buoyed by stronger demand for power and steam in China needed to operate hospitals. However, its one-time core power plant BLCP contributed a loss of Bt70m due to translation losses. The hidden crown jewel is Banpu NEXT, the renewable business, which just needs time to appreciated.
  • The parent company Banpu reported an EBITDA of US$134m, down 42% YoY, and earnings of Bt55m. The coal business, just like other energy segments (oil, gas), performed poorly, but Banpu made the most of it by negotiating down the price of Barnett in the United States, a deal that will be concluded towards the end of this year.

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