Brief Japan: Nitori Holdings Coverage Initiation Part 2: Alternative Data Analysis and more

In this briefing:

  1. Nitori Holdings Coverage Initiation Part 2: Alternative Data Analysis
  2. Morning Views Asia: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Softbank Group
  3. 🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th June
  4. A Liquidity Peak With A View

1. Nitori Holdings Coverage Initiation Part 2: Alternative Data Analysis

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This is the second of a three-part series on Nitori Holdings (9843 JP), Japan’s largest furniture and home accessories retailer. In this Insight, we look at the Ministry of Finance import data to analyse the profitability and medium-term trends for Nitori’s two main business segments.

2. Morning Views Asia: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Softbank Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

3. 🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 26th June

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eRESULTS & REVISIONS UPDATE SERIES – After a month’s gap, we shall now resume daily coverage of Japan’s results, forecasts and revisions announcements as the 420 companies with February, May, August and November year-ends start to report. Initially, we shall cover all companies irrespective of market capitalisation, to highlight the financial impact of COVID-19  on specific Sectors and Peer Groups.

Source • Japan Analytics

LEADING INDICATOR LEADS – The Cabinet Office’s Leading Indicator of Business Conditions is suggesting that earnings and revisions (as represented above by our Results Score and Forecast/Revision Score) have some significant downside, perhaps closer to the low of 2009. The degree to which the market has already discounted the recovery of 2021 is moot; however, the current level of confidence is about to be put to the test, as was evident from Friday’s announcements.

Source • Tokyo Metropolitan Government

FAR FROM NORMAL – As a reminder that Tokyo’s levels of social activity have yet to recover -passenger numbers on Toei subway lines are still 30% below January levels at peak office-worker commuting times.

Source • Japan Analytics

GRAPHIC DETAIL – In an attempt to highlight absolute and relative company-specific trends, we have added some additional graphic material in the DETAIL section below. As always, comments and feedback are welcome.


DAILY STATS

14 Quarterly Results

  • Results Score: 12 Negative / 2 Positive
  • Average Results Score Change:-5.0
  • Average % Change in Revenue: -16% Quarter YoY / -5% Rolling TTM YoY
  • Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.2ppt

7 Annual 6 Interim Forecasts Revisions

  • Forecast Revision Score: 6 Positive / 7 Negative
  • Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7

4. A Liquidity Peak With A View

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  • The worst and the best of 2020 may already be over for the financial markets  
  • Global Liquidity remains buoyant, but growth is peaking
  • US broad liquidity expansion slowed markedly in June 2020
  • Still on-track for V-shaped economic rebound
  • Slower liquidity growth and large upcoming coupon issuance points to at best range bound Wall Street

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