In this briefing:
- Naver Spike Overdone – Sell
- SK Hynix Short Zone with Option for SEC Long Pair
- EV Battery Monthly: No Further Cut in Subsidies for NEVs in China Suggests Better Market Conditions
Naver Corp (035420 KS) has risen in a linear manner and testing highs from 2017 and 2018 amid growing bear divergence (non confirmation of new price highs that creates a negative undertone and precedes intermediate corrective cycles) along with deteriorating buy volume into recent strength. These weaker inputs sets up a good short trade in Naver.
RSI break below pattern support will act as a lead signal for price to break noted trendline support near 180k. Initially one would expect a reaction bounce from this trend support.
38.2% retracement lies at 160k and 50% near 150k, representing key pullback objectives.
SK Hynix (000660 KS) has done very well from our buy in level at 78k but the current upleg is looking overdone with ideal topside projection just under 105k and the RSI exhibiting minor bear divergence (non confirmation of the recent high) amid lofty readings.
A choppy dip and rally would fit with some distribution taking place as the KOSPI shows similar froth near the 306-09 range.
SK Hynix needs a rest on the form of a pullback from a minor new high with supports near 94k and 90.50k. The macro drive higher should then resume.
The ratio chart between SK Hynix and SEC shows a clear bias for SK Hynix to continue to U/P SEC and another positioning option to test the 1.50 support zone. 1.66 represents uptick resistance on this ration.
3. EV Battery Monthly: No Further Cut in Subsidies for NEVs in China Suggests Better Market Conditions
The highlights for December are as follows:
- The labour shortage at the Nevada plant is said to be under control. Thus, delays in supply do not seem to be a concern.
- A partnership with Tropos should strengthen the software side of Panasonic’s business. Motors. Panasonic’s software platform, OneConnect, to be used in Tropos manufactured EVs designed for use in last-mile applications and emergency.
- Efforts by the company to improve its battery business and adopt CASE related technologies (as highlighted in our previous monthlies) are likely to bring in growth only over the medium term. For the upcoming quarter, consensus and our estimates are for a decline in revenue and OP given the unfavourable market conditions and struggle in battery business through last year.
- There will be no further cut in subsidy in China for NEVs. With the subsidy staying intact, demand for NEVs is likely to improve (or at least not decline further) suggesting better market conditions for battery players globally (who invested in China despite the country’s slowdown last year).
- CATL was quiet last month, although there was news about the company being a possible buyer of the US luxury car brand-Aston Martin. This seems more likely to be merely a rumour and we feel that CATL does not seem to have strong synergies to do so.
- South Korean players had no major battery highlights last month.
- CATL’s share price continued to rise last month, followed by Panasonic, both outperforming the market. The Korean players and BYD continued to see relatively weak performance during the month.
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