In this briefing:
- SK Hynix Short Zone with Option for SEC Long Pair
- EV Battery Monthly: No Further Cut in Subsidies for NEVs in China Suggests Better Market Conditions
- The Market Is Overreacting to Lotte’s Inheritance Situation: Creating an Opening for a Short
- Recent Long Short on Samsung/Hynix & KOSPI 200,,, & 30% KOSPI 200 Cap
SK Hynix (000660 KS) has done very well from our buy in level at 78k but the current upleg is looking overdone with ideal topside projection just under 105k and the RSI exhibiting minor bear divergence (non confirmation of the recent high) amid lofty readings.
A choppy dip and rally would fit with some distribution taking place as the KOSPI shows similar froth near the 306-09 range.
SK Hynix needs a rest on the form of a pullback from a minor new high with supports near 94k and 90.50k. The macro drive higher should then resume.
The ratio chart between SK Hynix and SEC shows a clear bias for SK Hynix to continue to U/P SEC and another positioning option to test the 1.50 support zone. 1.66 represents uptick resistance on this ration.
2. EV Battery Monthly: No Further Cut in Subsidies for NEVs in China Suggests Better Market Conditions
The highlights for December are as follows:
- The labour shortage at the Nevada plant is said to be under control. Thus, delays in supply do not seem to be a concern.
- A partnership with Tropos should strengthen the software side of Panasonic’s business. Motors. Panasonic’s software platform, OneConnect, to be used in Tropos manufactured EVs designed for use in last-mile applications and emergency.
- Efforts by the company to improve its battery business and adopt CASE related technologies (as highlighted in our previous monthlies) are likely to bring in growth only over the medium term. For the upcoming quarter, consensus and our estimates are for a decline in revenue and OP given the unfavourable market conditions and struggle in battery business through last year.
- There will be no further cut in subsidy in China for NEVs. With the subsidy staying intact, demand for NEVs is likely to improve (or at least not decline further) suggesting better market conditions for battery players globally (who invested in China despite the country’s slowdown last year).
- CATL was quiet last month, although there was news about the company being a possible buyer of the US luxury car brand-Aston Martin. This seems more likely to be merely a rumour and we feel that CATL does not seem to have strong synergies to do so.
- South Korean players had no major battery highlights last month.
- CATL’s share price continued to rise last month, followed by Panasonic, both outperforming the market. The Korean players and BYD continued to see relatively weak performance during the month.
Shin Kyuk-ho, the founder of Lotte Group, passed away yesterday. The total value of his wealth is a little more than ₩1tril. The local news outlets report that he hasn’t left any will. So, the inheritance goes to the direct family members at a 1.5:1:1:1:1 ratio, 1.5 for his wife and 1 for each of the four children, including Shin Dong-bin.
Samsung Elec has made a great run lately, and so did Hynix. Then, we have to ask ourselves this question. Was it a part of a rerating on entire Korea? Well, it doesn’t seem that it was the case. During the same period, KOSPI 200 has gone up only 2.71%, whereas Samsung has climbed nearly 10%.
So, it should have been more of a decoupling situation for Korea’s memory chip stocks. Well, it isn’t the first time that we see this kind of decoupling. Entire Korea is more correlated with China than the US; however, Samsung and Hynix are still going more in line with NASDAQ, specifically PHLX SS. The latest liquidity-fueled frenzy in the US has primarily pushed up the US tech stocks. Samsung and Hynix must have also benefited from it as well. Then, this dynamic has invited arb traders who wanted to capitalize on this specific hedge position: long Samsung/Hynix and short KOSPI 200. This approach is reasonable as there is no reason to believe entire Korea is moving up on a rerating.
Well, the strategy seems to have paid off nicely. The gain of each entry point since December 20 until January 7, if holding until January 17, is still sitting at least above 3%. It peaks as high as 5% if you entered the position on December 24. If you took higher leverage as Samsung and Hynix carry one of the few sufficiently liquid futures, your gain would have been in a much more pleasant area.
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