Brief Macro: China: Stimulation in the Right Places and more

In this briefing:

  1. China: Stimulation in the Right Places
  2. UK: Labour Market Enduring Political Earthquake

1. China: Stimulation in the Right Places

2018%20usd%20gdp

What can the world expect from its second largest economy in the near term now that a 2020 recession signal has been sent in the US and the EU seems destined to slip back into a growth paralysis? The good news is that we should expect growth in China to accelerate.

2. UK: Labour Market Enduring Political Earthquake

2019 09 10%20lab4

  • Headline labour market data were broadly robust in Jul-19 as further upward revisions to wages were joined by a return to the unemployment rate’s 3.8% low.
  • The recovery in GDP growth has not stoked employment, which has been steady at a subdued rate amid a normalising labour force level. Falling vacancies still show the risk of a rapid adverse adjustment if there is a no-deal Brexit, as I assume.

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