In this briefing:
What can the world expect from its second largest economy in the near term now that a 2020 recession signal has been sent in the US and the EU seems destined to slip back into a growth paralysis? The good news is that we should expect growth in China to accelerate.
- Headline labour market data were broadly robust in Jul-19 as further upward revisions to wages were joined by a return to the unemployment rate’s 3.8% low.
- The recovery in GDP growth has not stoked employment, which has been steady at a subdued rate amid a normalising labour force level. Falling vacancies still show the risk of a rapid adverse adjustment if there is a no-deal Brexit, as I assume.