ConsumerDaily Briefs

Consumer: Nayuki Holdings, DiDi Chuxing, NIO Inc, ROBLOX Corp, Sun Tv Network, Ozon Holdings PLC and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO – Forecast and Thoughts on Valuation
  • ECM Weekly (13th June 2021) – Didi, AiHuiShou, Dingdong Maicai, MissFresh, Full Truck, Nayuki
  • NIO: ES8 Gets Certified as a Prelude to Its Norway Entry in September
  • TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/11/​​​​​​2021
  • Sun TV Network
  • Ozon Holdings: Investment Thesis Confirmed After Q1 Results

Nayuki (奈雪) Pre-IPO – Forecast and Thoughts on Valuation

By Zhen Zhou, Toh

Nayuki Holdings (NYK HK) is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 

Nayuki is the operator of Nayuki teahouses, a premium modern teahouse chain in China. The company had a network of 491 Nayuki teahouses across 61 cities in China as of December 2020. As per CIC, Nayuki is the most extensive premium modern teahouse network in China in terms of the number of cities covered.

We had previously covered the IPO in:


ECM Weekly (13th June 2021) – Didi, AiHuiShou, Dingdong Maicai, MissFresh, Full Truck, Nayuki

By Zhen Zhou, Toh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

It was a busy week for the ECM space where multiple IPOs were filed the past week. Topping in deal size was Didi Chuxing. The company is looking to raise up to US$10bn in the US which would be one of the largest IPOs globally this year. We published a preliminary tearsheet discussing their background, financial overview, along with a follow-up piece looking at the revenue accounting and touching on valuations: 

On-demand e-commerce and groceries firms, Dingdong Maicai and MissFresh, both filed for their US IPO, looking to raise US$500m. We initiated coverage on these two firms and compared their performance. 

Boutique hotel operator, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, also filed for its US$300m IPO in the US. There were two new filings in India namely, integrated diagnostics chain Vijaya Diagnostic Centre, and component manufacturer, Sansera Engineering, where both are seeking US$225m and US$200m, respectively. This is the latter’s second attempt to go public.

Hong Kong’s new IPO filings this week include surgical robotic solutions, Microport Medbot, Chinese medicine clinic chain, Gushengtang, and pharmacy chain, Quanyuantang Pharmacy,looking to raise US$1bn, US$400m, US$300m, respectively.

For ongoing IPOs, in the U.S, AiHuiShou launched its bookbuild on Friday. The company is looking to raise up to US$243m, which is significantly lower than the US$500 – 1bn deal size that was reported earlier. 

In Hong Kong, Clear aligner player, Angelalign, closed its books a day earlier and was priced at the top end. The deal raised US$375m and comes off the back of overwhelming demand from institutional and retail investors. Shares will debut on Wednesday. 

PAG-backed dairy producer, China Youran Dairy, launched their bookbuild over the week and was priced at the bottom end. Shares will begin trading on Friday. 

Biopharmeceutical company, CARsgen, closed its books early and was reportedly priced at the top end, where nine cornerstones took up 58% of the deal. Shares will also debut on Friday. 

Online recruitment platform, Kanzhun, priced its IPO at the top-end and almost doubled on its Friday debut, closing 95% higher. This brought an end to the China ADR listing slump.

For upcoming IPOs, we discussed forecasts, assumptions and valuation of digital freight platform, Full Truck Alliance.

Continuing our  coverage on Nayuki, we compared the company to industry and listed peers and shared our thoughts on assumptions and valuation. 

We also initiated on Keymed Biosciences Inc. The firm focuses on therapeutic areas of autoimmune and oncology and is seeking US$300m from its planned float. 

Ophthalmic medical services group, Chaoju Eye Care, and biopharmaceutical company, Hutchison Med, both secured listing approval for their respective US$300m and US$500m IPOs. The duo will begin pre-marketing next week. Our coverage from earlier:

Chinese property management companies, SCE Intelligent Commercial Management and Ronshine, are also currently in the midst of pre-marketing their respective US$300m and US$100m IPOs. 

In India, automotive technology company Sona Comstar launched its US$761m IPO (downsized from US$829m), where anchor books opened on Friday and the rest of the offer will last this coming Monday to Wednesday. This will be India’s first EV-related IPO..

We also followed up on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable act, which seeks to stop China ADRs from being traded on the US exchanges. We discussed the implications in:

For placements, in Japan, semiconductor manufacturer, Renesas Electronics, raised US$3.6bn from a global follow-on. It was priced at a 3% discount to Wednesday’s close price. Books were multiple times oversubscribed, consisting of mainly long-only funds and sovereign wealth funds. 

Ganfeng Lithium raised US$628m in Hong Kong to fund capacity expansion plans and for potential investment. Shares were sold at a 5% discount to undisturbed price and closed 10.1% above deal price. 

Convertible bond holders of Pharmaron, sold shares to hedge their exposure, raising just US$67m (initially US$125m). It has since traded higher to close 10.6% above deal price on Friday. 

Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) raised US$159min its follow-on offering. Shares were priced at 2.35% discount to undisturbed price and have since traded higher to close 16.4% above deal price on Friday. 

Accuracy Rate:

Our overall accuracy rate is 73.9% for IPOs and 67.6% for Placements 

(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)

New IPO filings this week

  • Microport Medbot (Hong Kong, US$1bn)
  • Gushengtang (Hong Kong, US$400m)
  • Chengdu Quanyuantang Pharmacy (Hong Kong, US$300m)
  • Vijaya Diagnostic Centre (India, US$225m)
  • Sansera Engineering (India, US$200m)
  • Didi Chuxing (US, US$10bn)
  • Dingdong Maicai (US, US$500m)
  • MissFresh (US, US$500m)
  • Atour Lifestyle Holdings (US, US$300m)

News on Upcoming IPOs

Hong Kong/China

US/China ADRs

India

Others

Analysis on Upcoming IPOs

NameInsight
Hong Kong
Anjuke

Anjuke Pre-IPO – Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments 

Betta Pharma

Betta Pharma (贝达医药) A+H: Tier 2 Player Struggled to Break Out 

Broncus

Broncus (堃博医疗) Pre-IPO: Big Potential to Be Tested 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 

ByteDance

ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO – Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 

ByteDance

ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Global Ambition Meets Regulatory Challenges 

Chaoju

Chaoju Eye Care (朝聚眼科) Pre-IPO: Growth Prospect Far from Being Impressive 

Dida

Dida Pre-IPO – Making Hay While Big Brother Retreats 

Dida

Dida Pre-IPO – Earnings Forecast and First Stab at Valuation 

Dida

Dida Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Lagging in Scale, Leading in Profitability 

Edding Grp

Edding Group (亿腾医药) Pre-IPO: Notes from Latest Financials and Its Related Party 

Edding Grp

Edding Group (亿腾医药) Pre-IPO: Notes from Latest Financials and Its Related Party 

Hanyu

Shanghai Hanyu (捍宇医疗) Pre-IPO: Not a Straight-A but Listing at Right Time 

Intco Med

Intco Medical (英科医疗) A+H: From China No.1 to Global No. 1 

Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO – Rapid Earnings Growth on the Back of Margin Improvement 

Kilcoy

Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO – A Lot of Things Still Remain Unexplained 

Keymed

Keymed (康诺亚生物) Pre-IPO: Differentiated Products but Far from Commercialization 

Kindstar

Kindstar (康圣环球) Pre-IPO: Issues with Scalability 

Kindstar

Kindstar (康圣环球) Pre-IPO: Is It Worth the Premium? 

Novotech

Novotech Pre-IPO: Biotech Focused CRO at Hefty Pre-IPO Valuation 

RemeGen RemeGen (荣昌生物) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation of RC18 and RC48 
SH Bio-heart Shanghai Bio-Heart (上海百心安) Pre-IPO: Needs a Long Runway 
Toplist Toplist China Pre-IPO – Overwhelmingly More Negatives than Positives 
Tasly Tasly Biopharm (天士力生物) IPO: Visible Growth from Approved Drug but Lacks Blockbusters 
WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through – The Online Medical Directory and More 
WeDoctor WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO – A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Picking Its Battles Wisely 
WeDoctor We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO – Forecasts, Early Thoughts on Valuation, and Acquisition Gripes 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Positives – Fast Growth, Strong Backers 
Weilong Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Spicy Valuation 
WM Tech WM Tech Pre-IPO – Digitalization Efforts Coming Through but Not Well Substantiated 
India
Aadhar Housing Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Decent past Growth but Comes with Weird Disclosures 
ASK ASK Investment Managers Pre-IPO – Riding on a Wave of Wealth 
Anmol IndAnmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Bharat Hotel

Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO – Catching up with Peers 

Bajaj En

Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO – Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 

CMS InfoCMS Info Systems Pre-IPO – When a PE Sells to Another PE… Only One Gets the Timing Right
Crystal CropCrystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO – DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers
ESAF SFB ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO – Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 
Flemingo Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO – Its a Different Business in Every Country
Emami Cem Emami Cement Pre-IPO – Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 
NSENSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive
NSENational Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review – Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some

LIC

Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO – Early Take on India’s Largest IPO 
Penna Cem Penna Cement – Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 
PNB MetPNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take – Doesn’t Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers
Samhi Hotels Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO – Assets and Borrowings Are Growing, but Earnings Haven’t Kept Pace 
Sona Comstar Sona Comstar Pre-IPO – Inconsistent Growth, Patchy Disclosures 
Zomato Zomato Pre-IPO – Filings Lack Narrative, a Little Bit of History Helps 
Zomato Zomato Pre-IPO – Food Delivery Revenue Was Probably up 16x 
Malaysia
QSRQSR Brands Pre-IPO – As Healthy as Fast Food
The U.S.
Dingdong MC Dingdong Maicai Pre-IPO – Increasing Market Share, Fast Growth but No Signs of Profit 
ForU ForU Worldwide Pre-IPO – Mostly Negatives 
Full Truck All Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO – The Positives – Category Leader 
Full Truck All Full Truck Alliance Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Still a Mixed Bag 
Hello Inc Hello Inc (哈罗出行) Pre-IPO – Nowhere near Being Sustainable 
MissFresh Missfresh Limited (每日优鲜) Pre-IPO – Worrying and Unsustainable Trend 
Soulgate Soulgate Pre-IPO – Unsustainable Virtual Connection 
Qiniu Qiniu Cloud (七牛云) Pre-IPO: PaaS Doesn’t Warrant a Premium 
Ximalaya Ximalaya Pre-IPO – The Positives – A Whole Lot of Listening 
Ximalaya Ximalaya Pre-IPO – The Negatives 
Ximalaya Ximalaya Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison 
Ximalaya Ximalaya Pre-IPO – Earnings Forecast and Valuation 
Ximalaya Ximalaya (XIMA): Has Large Market Share, But Small Competitors Have Big Bosses. 

NIO: ES8 Gets Certified as a Prelude to Its Norway Entry in September

By Henry Kwon

On June 11, Nio announced that it received European Whole Vehicle Type Approval (EWVTA) for the ES8, which will begin selling in Norway in September, with plans to expand to other parts of Europe thereafter. NIO’s shares closed at $45.68 (+6.83%) on the news on Friday.

NIO’s DNA as a marketer rather than OEM producer is likely to help. In any event, with strong domestic sales and improving financials, there is likely to be little fundamentally based impediments to NIO’s share price performance other than valuations or some unforeseen event until 2Q earnings release.

  • Bullish short term share price scenario: NIO broke through its 50% Fibonacci Retracement of $44.08 and 100 DMA of $43.89. If momentum remains strong, shares are likely to try to test its 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of $49.49 this week.
  • Bearish short term share price scenario: RSI is now at 70, a level the shares have not seen since January 12-13 when they reached all-time high. A corrective pullback at this point would be healthy. The 100 DMA and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement which used to be resistance has now become support but if the shares fail to hold this level, the 10-day EMA of $42.18 and the 21-day EMA of $40.22 should be looked to as the next support zone.

A long term issue that NIO investors may not be recognizing at this point is the challenging nature of European market profitability for Asian brands. However, this is not something that is likely to come into play as a stock theme in the next 3 months for NIO in my view.


TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/11/​​​​​​2021

By Aaron Gabin

Roblox got sued…thats great news…to us. Says the platform’s power is growing. Gamestop intriguing and IAC being IAC. 

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  


Sun TV Network

By ICICI Securities Limited

Sun TV, in its key market of Tamil, has improved its prime time fiction market share from 37% to 42% in the last three quarters, albeit it remains well below that earlier levels. The company envisages to take it to 50% in the medium term. Sun TV also intends to launch five to six shows including two big ticket shows (with total spend of Rs 50 crore for both shows) in Telugu and Malayalam in Q1FY22, which were delayed due to second wave that halted shootings. We expect the overall impact of the second wave and higher presence of local ad to push back ad revenue recovery.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ozon Holdings: Investment Thesis Confirmed After Q1 Results

By Moat Investing

  • The number of orders reached 34.1 million (up 161% YoY);
  • GMV reached RUB 74.2 bln (up 135% YoY);
  • Adjusted EBITDA was RUB – 4.9 bln, equal to 6.5% of GMV, pretty much in line with Q1 2020 (RUB 4.5 bln equal to 14.2% of GMV) despite volumes.
  • Operating cash flow was RUB – 12.1 bln (RUB – 2.4 bln in Q1 2020).

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma