In today’s briefing:
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) Outlook Amid Overblown Passive Inflows And NIM Pressures
- Perseus Mining (PRU AU) Vs. Capricorn Metals (CMM AU): Statistical Gold Trade Hits Target
- REA Group (REA AU) Vs. News Corp (NWS AU): Owner Diverges From Its Growth Engine
- ANZ Group (ANZ AU) Vs. National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage Pays Off
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) Outlook Amid Overblown Passive Inflows And NIM Pressures
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)’s shares have surged >80% since November2023, outpacing its underlying profit growth and dividend yields. Passive‐index ETF reallocations are the primary driver of this rally.
- A Reuters poll forecasts the RBA will cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60% on July 8—with further cuts likely into year‐end. This will compress NIMs, a key earnings driver for CBA.
- This insight marks the start of our coverage for CBA: the stock closed this week down (CC -1) reaching oversold levels, it can bounce but the rally potential appears limited.
Perseus Mining (PRU AU) Vs. Capricorn Metals (CMM AU): Statistical Gold Trade Hits Target
- Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
- Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
- Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.
REA Group (REA AU) Vs. News Corp (NWS AU): Owner Diverges From Its Growth Engine
- Context: The REA Group Ltd (REA AU) vs. News Corp (NWS AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests going long REA Group Ltd (REA AU) and short News (NWS AU). A target return is provided. News Corp is the majority owner of REA.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
ANZ Group (ANZ AU) Vs. National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage Pays Off
- Context: This article provides an update on the Insight Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage, published on 22 June 2025.
- Key Insights: The trade has hit its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
- Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
