In today’s briefing:
- Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal
- HMC Capital – The Overnight Report: Winners Out, Laggards In
- Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit
- AUB Group (AUB AU) Vs. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU): Aussie Financial Pair Offers Short-Term Opportunity
- Nanosonics Ltd (NAN AU): Two Upcoming Catalysts to Set Future Direction
- Resources & Energy Group Limited – Small Scale Gold Production
- GTN Ltd – H2 FY25 downgrade and proposed capital return
- Digging gold out of the Bushveld
- Reece Battling Tariffs, Competition & Cost Crises
Domain (DHG AU): 4th August Vote On CoStar’s Offer. Clean Deal
- Back on the 9th May 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered into a Scheme, at A$4.43/share (in cash), with CoStar, the same terms as the 27th March NBIO.
- Apart from the standard Scheme vote, this needs FIRB to sign off. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.05% shareholder) is supportive.
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 4th August, and expected implementation on or before the 27th August. The IE (FGrant Samuel) says “fair & reasonable“.
HMC Capital – The Overnight Report: Winners Out, Laggards In
- A global perspective on what happened overnight
Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit
- Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
- Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
- Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.
AUB Group (AUB AU) Vs. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU): Aussie Financial Pair Offers Short-Term Opportunity
- Context: The AUB Group (AUB AU) vs. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: Going long AUB Group (AUB AU) and short Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) targets a 5% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Nanosonics Ltd (NAN AU): Two Upcoming Catalysts to Set Future Direction
- Nanosonics Ltd (NAN AU) is on track to launch its newly approved endoscope cleaning device, Coris in the U.S. in Q1FY26.
- FY25 performance is expected to beat revised guidance. Consensus is expecting revenue growth of 14% for FY25, matching the higher end of the revised guidance.
- Nanosonics shares have a high short interest (6.65%) in ASX. We may see some short squeeze as the company entering eventful Q1FY26 (new launch, FY25 result announcement, FY26 guidance).
Resources & Energy Group Limited – Small Scale Gold Production
- Resources & Energy Group Limited (ASX:REZ) is a Western Australian (WA) focused gold explorer and producer whose now sole focus is on the East Menzies Gold Project.
- This project hosts a JORC-compliant resource of ~54koz with REZ currently conducting a trial mining and processing operation which is likely to generate revenue to the company over H1 ‘25.
- This trial will be used to ramp-up production through an expanded bulk mining operation and ultimately a proper small-scale mining operation that removes the need for toll treating.
GTN Ltd – H2 FY25 downgrade and proposed capital return
- GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) provides traffic information reports and cash compensation to radio and television stations, and in return gets a guaranteed number of commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news and information reports.
- GTN has announced its long-awaited major capital management initiative, proposing a $0.23/share ($44m) capital return.
- What could have been a share price boost has been complicated by the announcement of a material H2 FY25 earnings downgrade, with EBITDA likely to be down ~55% on a ~4% decline in revenue.
Digging gold out of the Bushveld
- Theta Gold Mines Limited (ASX:TGM) is a gold developer targeting transitioning to producer by early CY27.
- TGM is currently completing site clearance and preparation works which will enable construction of a new gold plant once full funding has been finalised.
- TGM has secured credit approval for a US$35m debt facility with broader commercial bank syndication in process whilst the contractor for the gold plant has provided a staggered US$30m payment schedule which further reduces the required upfront equity contribution.
Reece Battling Tariffs, Competition & Cost Crises
- It is not just Australia suffering a housing affordability crisis.
- The US is also suffering, particularly in the south, impacting Reece’s revenues and margins
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