In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Update with New Important Market Consultation Implications
- Xero US1.2bn Placement – Trying to Jump Start US, Again. Might Not Be a Game Changer.
- New World Resources (NWC AU): A Brewing Bidding War
- Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s NBIO
- Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s Low-Ball Non-Binding Offer
- S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Following Proposed Index Rule Review
- Amaero International Ltd – Visibility on 80% of Q1 and Q2 FY26 sales via contracts
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Update with New Important Market Consultation Implications
- Couple of days ago, I published my index change expectations for the ASX index family in the run up to the September 2025 index review (link).
- After market close yesterday, the index provider announced a market consultation on potential changes to the index methodology which could become effective during the September review if it gets approved.
- This is a short insight with our revised ranks for the potential ADDs and DELs assuming the market consultation gets approved.
Xero US1.2bn Placement – Trying to Jump Start US, Again. Might Not Be a Game Changer.
- Xero Ltd (XRO AU) plans to raise around US$1.2bn via an institutional placement to partly fund the US$2.5bn acquisition for Melio.
- The US market has been a growth dampener for Xero for a while. The acquisition is large but might not be a game changer.
- In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
New World Resources (NWC AU): A Brewing Bidding War
- New World Resources (NWC AU) is subject to a bidding war between Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra. CAML’s binding offer is A$0.055 while Kinterra’s non-binding offer is A$0.057.
- At current terms, a binding Kinterra offer would be superior as the price increase more than offsets the reverse break fees and does not require regulatory approvals.
- Despite Kinterra’s offer representing a 103.6% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war.
Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s NBIO
- In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit humm (HUM AU) announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals.
- Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to Latitude (LFS AU) was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie.
- Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.
Humm Group (HUM AU): Chairman’s Low-Ball Non-Binding Offer
- Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).
- The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.
- Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.
S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Following Proposed Index Rule Review
- As reported by Brian Freitas and Janaghan Jeyakumar, there are potential methodology changes for the S&P/ASX family of indices in sight, read their insights for more details.
- If approved, the changes could take effect with the September index review and could bring in signficant reshaping for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
- In our previous insight on June 9th we signaled how the ASX 200 was overbought. The index close last week down. This insight discusses our new forecast and outlook.
Amaero International Ltd – Visibility on 80% of Q1 and Q2 FY26 sales via contracts
- Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
- In an ASX release on June 23, the company announced that it has completed commissioning of the second advanced Electrode Induction Melting Inert Gas Atomiser (EIGA premium) on schedule at its Tennessee manufacturing facility.
- Amaero also reaffirmed its guidance that revenue was expected to significantly scale in FY26 and shared that through the contract sales it has secured in long-term agreements, it now has visibility on ~80% of its planned Q1 and Q2 FY26 sales.
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