In today’s briefing:
- PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s “Superior Offer”? In An Alternate Reality
- Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage
- Weekly Deals Digest (22 Jun) – Santos, PointsBet, Mayne, HKBN, Carta, Nakano, Sanhua, FWD, CaoCao
- Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific
- Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?
- Flynn Gold Ltd – Building the business
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr’s “Superior Offer”? In An Alternate Reality
- BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has now tabled an all scrip off-market offer for PointsBet (PBH AU) – no minimum acceptance condition – which they consider superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s.
- Really? 3.81 new betr shares is currently equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. Terms backed out just A$1.086/share at the start of trading last Friday.
- PointsBet quite rightly states the obvious – betr’s Offer is materially below MIXI’s.
Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage
- Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Banking industry between ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).
- Highlights: Going long ANZ and short NAB targets a 4.5% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with ANZ supported by cheaper valuations.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Weekly Deals Digest (22 Jun) – Santos, PointsBet, Mayne, HKBN, Carta, Nakano, Sanhua, FWD, CaoCao
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) H share listing and CaoCao (2643 HK) and FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).
Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlight: Six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist. Two
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?
- Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years.
- Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production).
- The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving.
Flynn Gold Ltd – Building the business
- Flynn Gold Limited (ASX:FG1) is a junior gold explorer which holds a portfolio of tenements (20+3 in application) across Tasmania and Western Australia.
- The tenement package is prospective for several commodities, however, exploration efforts have largely focused on gold at the company’s flagship project, Golden Ridge, which is located in the north-east of Tasmania.
- Field work and ongoing drilling at the project over the past two years has resulted in FG1 developing critical mass at the project which is building up towards an inaugural JORC-compliant resource.
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