Daily Brief Consumer: Soft99 Corp, Mandom Corp, Naspers, Hanssem Co Ltd, Alibaba, Comcast Corp Class A, NIO , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Myer Holdings and more

• Today after the close, the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board of Directors came out AGAINST the Effissimo ¥4,100/share counterbid to the original ¥2,465/share MBO.
• “The Special Committee advised that the Tender Offer would not contribute to the enhancement of the Company Group’s corporate value, nor would it be fair to the Company’s general shareholders.”
• ¥2,465 is fair. ¥4,100 is not fair. Absolute hogwash. Unmitigated blatherskite. Pure trumpery. Codswallop, buncombe, taradiddle, balderdash, and nincompoopery too. I expound below.

• On 10 September, CVC announced a family-led MBO of well-known Japanese hair-care/cosmetics firm Mandom Corp (4917 JP). Agreed, supported, recommended, for a start date end-September. It was also too light.
• I suggested the open-ish register could trigger activists. The stock opened just above terms post-announcement and then traded higher. Shares fell today but it is still 15% through terms. 
• Hibiki Path Advisors wrote a strong letter. Murakami announced a 6.67% stake yesterday, 8.39% today. But that’s 5 days old. Today, the company announced the TOB starts tomorrow. Still fun. 

• As Prosus NV (PRX NA) outperforms, Naspers (NPN SJ) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor. 
• Preceding my comments on Naspers/Prosus and Tencent (700 HK), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has, unsurprisingly, opposed the Effissimo offer for several reasons. Notably, they do address the huge price disparity between the two offers. 
• While most of the reasons to justify the opposition are weak, the Board unexpectedly notes that as of 24 September, the MBO retained acceptances to satisfy its minimum tendering condition. 
• Despite the significant premium of the Effissimo offer, this development suggests that the current acceptances for the MBO are sticky, thereby increasing the likelihood that Effissimo’s offer will fail. 

• Disclosure threshold drops from 5% to 1%, signaling stricter transparency, heavier penalties, and potential acceleration of buyback cancellations; new rules open for comment until November 5, effective Q4.
• Near-Term, high-treasury, solid-ROE stocks could see short-term momentum as mandatory cancels and tighter disclosure mechanically lift EPS, driving flows and setting up potential short-term longs.
• This sparks a new event-driven “disclosure schedule trading” setup, as 1%+ treasury holdings now trigger twice-yearly reports and six-month follow-ups, boosting volatility around announcements.

• Alibaba Group has announced an aggressive expansion of its artificial intelligence ambitions, earmarking over $50 billion in new AI and cloud investments over the next three years—an amount greater than its entire spending over the last decade.
• This significant push is aimed at positioning the company at the forefront of Asia’s generative AI and cloud infrastructure race.
• Central to this effort is the launch of its next-generation large language model, Qwen3-Max, following the success of Qwen2.5, which already has over 90,000 derivative models globally.

• Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) will spin off its cable networks and digital platforms into a new, independent, tax-free entity, Versant Media Group (Nasdaq: VSNT).
• The separation aims to unlock distinct value profiles, giving investors clearer exposure to both Comcast’s infrastructure-driven growth and Versant’s media/content-driven earnings
• The transaction is expected to be tax-free for Comcast shareholders and is anticipated to be completed in 2026.

• NIO is a prominent player in China’s premium electric vehicle (EV) market, distinguished by its strong brand, innovative Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model, and focus on user community.
• The company faces significant headwinds, including intense competition in the Chinese EV market, persistent unprofitability, and high cash burn, necessitating reliance on capital markets for funding, as evidenced by a recent US$1 billion equity offering.
• Future success hinges on management’s ability to execute on ambitious targets, such as improving gross margins with new models and achieving profitability, a goal they have missed in the past.

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• Companies that responded that they disclosed their annual securities reports prior to the AGM in response to investor needs are considering postponing the timing of their shareholders’ meetings.
• Annual securities reports are legal documents, and false statements are punishable by law, so the level of authenticity differs from other documents. It takes time to read them for AGM.
• There needs to be an increase in the number of investors who carefully read annual securities reports and use them to make investment decisions.

• While FY25 results for Myer revealed resilient sales, a step-up in costs was cause for concern though analysts generally believe management’s strategy reset remains on track.
• -Myer’s FY25 result disappoints on costs, shares weaken -Analysts posit it is still early in management’s multi-year transformation plan -Step-up in CODB costs is structural, cautions Ord Minnett -If all goes well, shareholders can expect significant step-up in dividends