In today’s briefing:
- IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation
- Where To Go With Warrego?
- AAG Energy (2686 HK): Is Xinjiang Xintai Returning for Another Bid?
- AAG Energy (2686 HK) Suspended: Xinjiang Xintai Offer?
- Nitto Denko Q3 Results and Buyback Announced
- Technical Analysis On Exxon Mobil
IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: 4 Days to Implementation
- There are 3 changes for the IDX30 Index, 6 changes for the LQ45 Index, and 7 changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented on 31 January.
- Largest passive inflows are expected to be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) and Surya Esa Perkasa (ESSA IJ).
- With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.
Where To Go With Warrego?
- It’s a fair bet Hancock Prospecting and Mineral Resources (MIN AU) are actively discussing the final stages for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) behind the scenes.
- It is unlikely MinRes aggressively builds a ~19% stake in a company subject to a two-way takeover battle, and declares its position “strategic” with no intention of making an Offer.
- This stake may be a bargaining chip from MinRes to keep Hancock on the sidelines in its tilt for Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU).
AAG Energy (2686 HK): Is Xinjiang Xintai Returning for Another Bid?
- Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 26 January.
- It is likely that Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH), the largest shareholder representing 56.95% of outstanding shares is seeking to privatise AAG.
- The potential bid is likely privatisation through a scheme. Multiples from Xinjiang Xintai’s previous voluntary cash offer in 2018 suggest an offer north of HK$2.00.
AAG Energy (2686 HK) Suspended: Xinjiang Xintai Offer?
- Back on the 14 May 2018, AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK) announced a partial offer (50.5%) from Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) at HK$1.75/share.
- This morning AAG was suspended pursuant to Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
- I expect a Scheme Offer from Xinjiang Xintai, which currently holds 56.98%. Potentially, Fosun (656 HK) has returned to the well.
Nitto Denko Q3 Results and Buyback Announced
- Nitto Denko (6988 JP) today announced Q3 results, lower full-year guidance with one-quarter left to go, sharply undercutting implied Q4 results vs the Street.
- The company also announced a buyback of 4.1-4.7% of shares out over the next 6mos. Assuming the share price falls in reaction, this could be closer to the top end.
- The buyback is non-negligible as a portion of Likely Real World Float and as such the situation is worth a look – for those with a position and those without.
Technical Analysis On Exxon Mobil
- Exxon Mobil Corporation is engaged in energy business. The Company’s principal business involves the exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas, and the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a range of specialty products.
- The Company’s segments include Upstream, Downstream and Chemical.
- The Upstream segment is organized and operates to explore for and produce crude oil and natural gas.
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