In today’s briefing:
- Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range
- Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB
- Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism
- Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…
- BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge
- Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals
- Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue
Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we look at an Asian toy manufacturer not named Pop Mart or Dream Int’l, the mashup between crypto and equity markets and the takeaways from tracking buybacks
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Break Out Is at Historically High End of Range
- TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
- UMC: 1.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Short the Spread
- ASE: +4.4% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Going Short
Indian Banks: Adding Canara and UBI to the Buy List, Dropping Bandhan and PNB
- Our proprietary scorecard applies a series of metrics related to valuation, returns, capital adequacy, funding, liquidity and credit quality to generate rankings in an investment valuation scorecard
- Driven by the scorecard results, we keep Baroda on the buy list adding Canara and UBI, with the latter two replacing Bandhan and PNB previously on the buy list
- We remove Kotak Mahindra from the sell list; IndusInd ranks bottom on the scorecard, but we feel that a lot of bad news is now discounted, limiting further downside risk
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Packaged Consumerism
- Berli Jucker (BJC TB) remains one of the most interesting consumer plays in Thailand through Big C, glass and aluminium cans, and its consumer supply chain segment.
- The company booked a strong start to 2025 across all segments from a profit growth perspective, with package sales being impacted by lower raw material prices, but that improved margins.
- 2Q has seen a slower start due to poor weather, slower tourism, partly due to the earthquake, but May has seen a turnaround, and management is confident in annual guidance
Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK): Privatisation Stays Appealing Despite…
- Despite some disgruntled investors, the privatisation of Tam Jai International (2217 HK) is appealing. If it is successful, payment will be made on or before 26 Aug.
- The proposed price of HK$1.58 equals a 24% premium to the peer CY25F PER. The poor reported peer results and earnings downgrades are the reasons for a narrower premium.
- Since the announcement of privatisation, the sector has retreated by 7.8%, vs. a 5.2% gain in HSI, reflecting the industry’s tough operating environment. It remains wise to exit.
BDL IN – Bharat Dynamics: Missile Systems Specialist Strengthening India’s Defence Edge
- BDL reported strong FY25 revenue of ₹3,345 Cr and PAT of ₹550 Cr, though EBITDA margins declined to 24.6% from earlier highs.
- With a ₹22,700 Cr order book, BDL is expanding via new plants in Jhansi, Amravati, and Ibrahimpatnam backed by ₹600+ Cr capex.
- At 100x PE and 75xPE FY27e valuations appear stretched, leaving limited margin of safety despite strong execution and order visibility.
Shyam Metalics & Energy Ltd (NSE: SHYAMMETL) – A Capital-Efficient Growth Play in Indian Metals
- Shyam Metalics reported robust FY25 results with 15% revenue growth and 21% EBITDA rise, driven by higher volumes and a shift toward value-added products.
- The company is executing a ₹10,025 Cr capex plan to double capacity by FY27, targeting high-margin segments like stainless steel and aluminium foil with backward integration.
- With zero net debt, strong cash flows, and a forward P/E of ~14×, Shyam Metalics offers a rare blend of growth, capital discipline, and low leverage in the steel sector.
Apollo Hospitals (APHS IN): Positive Outlook; Expansion on Track; Growth Momentum to Continue
- Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) reported strong FY25 result, with 14% revenue growth and a massive 61% jump in net profit. EBITDA margin improved to 13.9% (FY24: 12.5%).
- Overall margin expansion is mainly driven by AHLL (margin up 140bps YoY to 9.9%) and Apollo HealthCo (margin at 1.8% vs loss in FY24).
- AHEL plans to add 4,300 beds over the next three to four years, with 2,000 beds expected to become operational in FY26.
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