Daily BriefsEquity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot. and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.
  • Conbini Winning by Adding Value but Not Seven Eleven
  • Netflix Faces The Heat & The Spotlight: Is The Streaming Giant Still A Safe Bet?
  • GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Annual Growth Could Be Lower Than Earlier Expectation Of 20-25%.
  • Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Insider Buying Update – May 2025 (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion)
  • Alphabet Unleashes A New Wave of AI Tools—Is This The End Of Traditional Search?
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google’s Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways
  • Zen Technologies Q4 FY25 Update: Record Performance & Strategic Expansion
  • Pinduoduo: Record Ownership Decline Amid Sharp Rotation


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
  • Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
  • FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.

Conbini Winning by Adding Value but Not Seven Eleven

By Michael Causton

  • The four largest convenience stores all had varying results last year, two setting records for high profits, and the other two seeing worrying shortfalls. 
  • The biggest differentiating factor was how each handled the problem of inflation, either through lower prices or by offering added value.
  • Unfortunately, Seven Eleven was the worst performer of the big three, still suffering from a price perception problem and lower levels of innovation compared to Lawson and Familymart.

Netflix Faces The Heat & The Spotlight: Is The Streaming Giant Still A Safe Bet?

By Baptista Research

  • In a turbulent 2025, Netflix has emerged as one of the most closely watched tech stocks, not just for its market performance but also for its evolving business strategy.
  • The streamer’s share price is up over 30% year-to-date, nearing a $500 billion market cap, outpacing the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin.
  • Amid global macro uncertainty and shifting consumer behavior, Netflix is experimenting aggressively — hosting live NFL games, expanding into gaming, leveraging artificial intelligence in content production, and responding to a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.

By Patrick Liao

  • Globalwafers (6488 TT) held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday (May 26th).  
  • Regarding the U.S. market, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on imported products, although the specific rates are still unknown.  
  • Regarding the overall market conditions, the 12-inch silicon wafer market is currently performing significantly better than the 8-inch market, with higher utilization rates.  

Silergy (6415.TT): Annual Growth Could Be Lower Than Earlier Expectation Of 20-25%.

By Patrick Liao

  • Looking ahead to the second quarter, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) did not provide specific guidance targets but emphasized that uncertainty in customers’ decisions regarding chip production locations could impact seasonal demand.  
  • Despite short-term challenges, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) still anticipates 2025 to be a year of growth.  
  • In terms of profitability, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) expects that capacity at Chinese foundries will approach full utilization, leading to supply chain tightness and helping maintain stable gross margins.

Prices Drop, Eyes Pop: Insider Buying Update – May 2025 (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion)

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • May is a result season, and hence, very few companies that are out of their silent period are eligible to permit insider trading activity
  • Sectors with notable activity include real estate, financials, media and renewable energy.
  • Most of these stocks are close to same price levels where the insider purchases happened.

Alphabet Unleashes A New Wave of AI Tools—Is This The End Of Traditional Search?

By Baptista Research

  • Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) has entered a defining phase in its AI journey, unveiling a host of advanced technologies and product integrations that mark its most aggressive push yet into artificial intelligence.
  • At the heart of this transformation is Gemini 2.5 Pro, the company’s most advanced AI model, now powering everything from Search and mobile assistants to developer platforms and multimodal queries.
  • The rollout of AI Overviews, which now serves over 1.5 billion monthly users, and the launch of AI Mode, capable of handling more complex search tasks, underscore Alphabet’s commitment to redefining user experience through AI.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google’s Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
  • GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 

Zen Technologies Q4 FY25 Update: Record Performance & Strategic Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Zen Technologies (ZEN IN) reported record-high quarterly and annual financial performance in Q4 & FY25, surpassing internal guidance for the year. Strategic acquisitions in naval simulation, drone components& robotics completed.
  • The strong financials and acquisitions significantly diversify capabilities and market reach, positioning Zen to capitalise on increasing defence spending and evolving warfare needs.
  • Performance exceeds expectations, reinforcing confidence in Zen’s indigenous technology leadership and growth trajectory, despite potential short-term order inflow volatility.

Pinduoduo: Record Ownership Decline Amid Sharp Rotation

By Steven Holden

  • Pinduoduo sees one of the steepest ownership drops in EM funds, with 95 net sellers and 28 closures in six months.
  • Major closures from Aubrey, AllianceBernstein, UBS, and BNP Paribas; largest outflows from Fidelity and BlackRock.
  • Despite sharp declines, PDD remains in 36.5% of GEM funds and a top 10 holding in China & HK.

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