In today’s briefing:
- Goodman Group (GMG AU): Much Bigger Index Impact of US$2.5bn Equity Offering
- PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): Privatisation Offer From Liberty Group
- Japan Eyewear Holdings: A Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Opportunity?
- Profit Targets for TSMC (2330.TT) After Intel Acquisition Announcement
- UniCredit’s Banco BPM Takeover: A Deal on the Brink?
Goodman Group (GMG AU): Much Bigger Index Impact of US$2.5bn Equity Offering
- Goodman Group went into a trading halt and then announced results and an underwritten equity placement of A$4bn (US$2.54bn) to pursue growth opportunities across logistics and data center operations.
- The stock has dropped since CIC’s stake sale in December but still continues to handily outperform peers.
- There will be some passive buying in the stock at the time of share settlement and more a few days later to mop up around 37% of the offering.
PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): Privatisation Offer From Liberty Group
- PEC Ltd. (PEC SP), a plant and terminal engineering specialist, has (finally) announced an Offer from Allied Energy Services, an engineering entity under the Liberty Group.
- Liberty is offering S$0.84/share (not final) – including a AS$0.20/share special dividend – a 12.8% premium to undisturbed; but really more like a >35% premium.
- Irrevocables from the board of 63.38% have been secured. Looks pretty clean. Assuming late May payment, pay up to S$0.79/share for a 6%/15% gross/annualised spread.
Japan Eyewear Holdings: A Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Opportunity?
- On February 14, 2025, JEH announced the cancellation of its planned share offering and withdrew its Prime Market listing application due to a potential insider trading violation involving an executive.
- While the news may trigger a sharp correction in the stock, JEH’s core business remains strong, driven by pricing power, expansion opportunities, and growing inbound demand.
- If governance concerns are effectively addressed, the stock could offer a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity once market sentiment stabilizes.
Profit Targets for TSMC (2330.TT) After Intel Acquisition Announcement
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) started to rally after an article on the WSJ said that the Taiwanese company is considering buying Intel’s semiconductor manufacturing plants.
- As always, buy the rumor, sell the news is a possibile strategy here: our models say the stock is getting quickly overbought (WEEKLY period).
- In this insight we will provide some short-term, tactical guidance to identify profit targets, where can you expect to see the stock reaching in the next few days/weeks.
UniCredit’s Banco BPM Takeover: A Deal on the Brink?
- Danish Compromise Uncertainty: If Banco BPM fails to secure Danish Compromise approval, its CET1 ratio could decline by 268bps, making it a riskier acquisition for UniCredit, potentially jeopardizing the deal.
- UniCredit’s Strategic Dilemma: UniCredit may renegotiate the exchange ratio, withdraw the bid, or pursue Commerzbank instead, as Banco BPM’s Anima acquisition increases capital consumption risks and complicates UniCredit’s strategic plans.
- Market Skepticism: As of February 18, 2025, Banco BPM’s shares trade at €9.04, while UniCredit’s offer values them at €8.47, leading to a +6.7% gross spread.
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