In today’s briefing:
- The BIG March 2023 “Wednesday Thursday Trade”
- S.M. Entertainment: Proration Musings
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June
- Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer
- Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes
- Mincor: Twiggy’s On-Market Takeover
- India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)
- Oak Holdings/Vantage Towers: Delisting Agreement
- Onewo Space-Tech IPO Lock-Up – Company, Parent and Cornerstones Could Eventually Sell
The BIG March 2023 “Wednesday Thursday Trade”
- Every year it’s the same trade. But it isn’t really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
- But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
- And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.
S.M. Entertainment: Proration Musings
- After HYBE (352820 KS) conceded to Kakao Corp (035720 KS) earlier this month, S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)‘s shares have declined 23%.
- Kakao’s Partial Offer of ₩150,000/share closes on the 26 March.
- Unadjusted proration is 36.8%, conservatively rising to 48.5%. It may settle at 61% if HYBE maintains its position – but that is probably a tad optimistic.
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June
- There could be an addition to the S&P/ASX 100 Index and S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in April following OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)‘s acquisition by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
- Then there could be another change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in June.
- Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.
Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer
- Wyloo has launched an unconditional off-market takeover bid for Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU) at A$1.40 per share, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer opens 5 April.
- In certain aspects the offer is attractive. The offer values Mincor at a premium to peer and precedent transaction EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples.
- However, the offer is at a discount to recent share prices and price targets. Rival bidders (BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) or IGO Ltd (IGO AU)) could also emerge.
Quiddity Leaderboard-ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.
- OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.
- Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.
Mincor: Twiggy’s On-Market Takeover
- Nickel explorer Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)‘s board urges shareholders to take no action in response to the on-market takeover from Andrew Forrest’s backed Wyloo Metals.
- Wyloo is offering A$1.40/share. The offer period commences on the 5 April and runs until the 8 May – unless extended. However, Wyloo’s broker is already standing in the market.
- Wyloo, together with associates, control 19.87% of the voting power in Mincor. Currently trading 5.7% through terms
India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)
- Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, and 9 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
- Financials are poised to be the biggest gainers in the reshuffle with 6 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and 5 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap.
- Over the last 6 months, stocks expected to migrate upward have outperformed stocks that are expected to migrate downward., though there has been a downward drift this year.
Oak Holdings/Vantage Towers: Delisting Agreement
- Vantage Towers and Oak Holdings have concluded a delisting agreement after all takeover conditions were met. Oak Holdings intends to offer a cash consideration of €32/share to holdouts.
- The stock is trading 4.25% above the delisting offer price, thus it seems difficult that a lot more shares will be tendered.
- Elliot has a 5.61% stake in Vantage Towers, enough to prevent a squeeze-out and can exert pressure to obtain the DPLTA to include favorable terms (higher interest).
Onewo Space-Tech IPO Lock-Up – Company, Parent and Cornerstones Could Eventually Sell
- Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its six-month lockup is set to expire soon.
- OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK).
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
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