In today’s briefing:
- NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
- S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?
- Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer
- This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
- Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO
- State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
- Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More
- Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)
NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
- 0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
- What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
- NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.
S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?
- Interactive Brokers (IBKR US),Duolingo (DUOL US) and EMCOR (EME US) are the main candidates for addition at review to replace Enphase Energy (ENPH US) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US).
- Cheniere Energy (LNG US) and AppLovin (APP US) are the main candidates for the replacement of the acquisition of Ansys (ANSS US) which is anticipated end of June.
- There is a possibility of zero S&P500 changes at the review due to candidates scoring low in market cap and sector balance.
Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer
- They write several homeowners’, condominium owners’, and commercial residential products in coastal specialty markets in Florida and South Carolina.
- For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they had gross premiums written of $245 million and $278 million.
- The strong performance of peers could provide a potential tailwind for this IPO.
This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
- Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
- This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.
Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC): Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO
- Ategrity Specialty Holdings will be offering 6.67 million shares at a $14-$16 range equating to a $659m-$753m valuation.
- For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they wrote $116.1 million in gross written premiums, an increase of $34.5 million, or 42.3%.
- The underwriters have reserved for sale, at the initial public offering price, up to 7% of the shares offered.
State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
- Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
- This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.
Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More
- Renatus Tactical Acquisition, a SPAC targeting crypto/blockchain, shows 3% return with capped downside at 15%, potential speculative inflows.
- Wanda Hotel Development’s asset sale exceeds market cap, plans capital return, 20% upside; Lifeway Foods sale to Danone expected.
- Liquidia’s FDA-approved Yutrepia drug targets significant market share, 100%+ upside; Currency Exchange International’s FX Payments segment shows high growth.
Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs
- Revised 1.185x exchange ratio unlocks a negotiated, board-backed path to Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, addressing prior valuation pushback and aligning institutional holders.
- EPS accretive by 15.6% in 2026, driven by €16m in synergies and stronger funding optionality; upside anchored by operational scale, not leverage.
- Spread of ~1.9% (~5.1% annualized) reflects low interloper risk and deal certainty; attractive risk-reward for directional or hedged exposure near NTA.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- US treasuries fell and yields rose yesterday, amid renewed US-China trade tensions and a large supply of corporate issuances.
- Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 4 bps to 3.94% and 4.44%, respectively.
- Equities climbed, led by tech stocks, after the White House indicated that US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will “likely” speak this week.
Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)
- Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns
- The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals
- We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms
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