In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market
- The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal – $35bn of Flows To Trade
- Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
- Canara Robeco AMC IPO: Fairly Valued Given Strong Growth but Small Size
- Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers
- KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook As Treasury Share Cancellations Impact Passive Flows
- Impax Asset Management Group plc – AUM flat in Q4, ‘solid evidence flows are stabilising’
- Wealthfront Corporation (WLTH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of as Financial Solutions Platform
- Ethos Technologies (LIFE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Insurance Platform Company
- KRI: High Grade Hit at the Road Cut Zone & More Drill Results
[Japan Event] Sony Financial (8729 JP) Moves On From ToSTNeT-3 Buybacks, Now In the Market
- Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) started ToSTNeT-3 buybacks last week and did one this week to jumpstart the buyback, cushioning the Nikkei 225 deletion on 29 Sep and subsequent overhang.
- In three ToSTNeT-3 buybacks in 6 trading days spending ¥28.9bn, the company bought back 177.513mm shares or 2.5% of shares out, or about 6.2% of Max Real World Float (MRWF).
- With ¥71.1bn left, at last that’s 460mm shares, or 16.2% of MRWF. Over 10mos that is 1.62%/month. That will boost Mar26 DPS, Mar27 DPS projections, EPS, etc.
The Oct 2025 TOPIX FFW Rebal – $35bn of Flows To Trade
- Once every quarter the TSE reassesses free float weights for a set of companies whose fiscal years ended 7-10 months prior. Calendar Q1 is the biggie so October is too.
- This year, as companies have made dramatic changes in their shareholder registries through crossholder sales, activist acquisitions, and other, there are some big changes and big dollar changes.
- We see nearly 600 FFW changes up and down, and then nearly 1,100 stocks which see a significant (average 0.5x ADV) funding trade. $35bn in total.
Vietnam: Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows
- After years of being on the watchlist, Vietnam will be added to a global index in September 2026 as long as progress is made on one key issue.
- The final decision will be made in March 2026, and the implementation of the inclusion will take place in phases.
- We currently see 21 stocks meeting the inclusion criteria. There are others that are close to the inclusion thresholds, and the list will change over the next few months.
Canara Robeco AMC IPO: Fairly Valued Given Strong Growth but Small Size
- Canara Robeco AMC (570515Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$150m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Overall, revenue increased annually at about 39% since FY22 and based on 9M25 numbers, Canara’s FY25 performance is on track to surpass FY24’s levels
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.
Fermi (FRMI): The Devil Is In The Footnotes, Hidden Risk Triggers
- Private debt terms signal stress. The primary lender’s 1YR term facility implies a 50%+ IRR via a MOIC option. This is under-covered and signals constrained alternatives.
- Calendar precedes cash. Fixed obligations hit before revenue, so equity value is driven by sequencing rather than AI demand narratives.
- Underwriting focus. Binding large-scale lease, funded bridge through fuel and logistics, and a credible take-out or refinance of the short-tenor facility.
KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook As Treasury Share Cancellations Impact Passive Flows
- Sanghyun Park recently posted a comprehensive insight regarding South Korea’s move toward forcing firms to cancel treasury shares. I invite you to read it if you haven’t yet.
- The KOSPI 200 index passive flows will probably be deeply impacted by this legal reform, we could see this happening soon, before the December KOSPI 200 reshuffle.
- Since funds moves could start any time, here is a quantitative-model-based analysis of the most probable trends, with a short-term focus (next 3-4 weeks).
Impax Asset Management Group plc – AUM flat in Q4, ‘solid evidence flows are stabilising’
- AUM closed FY25 (1 Oct 24 – 30 Sep 25) on £26.1bn, above our previous forecast of £25.0bn.
- In Q4 (Jul – Sep), investment performance contributed +£1.4bn (+5.3%), offset by net outflows of -£1.4bn, in a quarter of heavy outflows for equity funds more generally (page 3).
- Impax’s outflows were slightly up on the previous quarter (-£1.3bn), but were a marked improvement over H1, which saw £10.2bn of net outflows, dominated by the loss of £6.2bn of St James’s Place mandates.
Wealthfront Corporation (WLTH): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of as Financial Solutions Platform
- Their platform assets increased from $57.6 billion as of January 31, 2024 to $80.2 billion as of January 31, 2025, representing 39% year-over-year growth.
- Tiger Global is the company’s largest shareholder, holding a 19.7% stake, followed by major backers such as Benchmark Capital, Index Ventures, Ribbit Capital, and Greylock Partners.
- The current government shutdown could delay the debut of this IPO due to the SEC unable to deem IPOs “effective” in a timely manner.
Ethos Technologies (LIFE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Insurance Platform Company
- Their total revenue was $159.8 million and $254.9 million and their net income was $1.69 million and $48.83 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
- Google Ventures, Sequoia and Accel are shareholders in this high profile company.
- The current government shutdown could delay the debut of this IPO due to the SEC unable to deem IPOs “effective” in a timely manner.
KRI: High Grade Hit at the Road Cut Zone & More Drill Results
- Kobo announced results from its ongoing 2025 diamond drill program with an impressive, and shallow, highlight intercept of 3.87 g/t Au over 17m.
- Today’s results represent the first six holes from KRI’s ongoing 12,000-15,000m diamond drill program (launched on September 4th, 2025).
- Over the last 2 months, KRI has had several other updates, including the closing of a financing for $4M (not including in our assumed cash balance), the recommencement of its 2025 drill program, and the announcement of a new earn-in agreement on the Yakassé Gold Project.
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