Daily Brief Financials: Svenska Handelsbanken AB, NIFTY Index, Georgia Capital PLC, Deutsche Beteiligungs AG, Spectral AI, Yanlord Land and more

• Handelsbanken B shares trade at a ~55% premium to A shares despite lower voting rights, liquidity, and index status — a rare and statistically extreme dislocation.
• Regression and post-2020 cointegration confirm mean-reverting behavior, supporting a relative value trade favoring SHB A over SHB B.
• Structural constraints on arbitrage and asymmetric flow dynamics may delay convergence, but the pricing gap remains fundamentally unjustified and actionable.

• Indo-Pak ceasefire triggers risk-premia markdowns – Monthly IVs -4.0 vols lower, Skew & Smile get compressed  
• Vol-Regime stays in “High & Up” state with high likelihood of switching to “High & Down” in the upcoming week.  
• IV term-structure flattened as the week progressed. Leaving front-end vol-differentials in Contango & Back-end Backwardation now eased to +0.60 vols.  

Georgia Capital (GCAP) delivered a solid NAV total return of 11.2% in Q125 in local currency terms (9.8% in GBP), continuing its strong 15.1% growth per annum since end-2018. Q125 NAV growth was driven primarily by Lion Finance Group’s stock performance (BGEO, formerly Bank of Georgia), which contributed 6.9pp to NAV performance. The strength of GCAP’s private portfolio continues to be reflected in robust earnings growth and sustained dividend flows. The group has reiterated its guidance to receive GEL180m in recurring dividends in 2025 (flat vs 2023 and 2024, which was sufficient to cover 169% of GCAP’s share buybacks over the last two years). Given the persistent wide discount to NAV (currently 37% to end-March NAV), GCAP remains focused on accretive share repurchases, reinforcing its commitment to disciplined capital allocation.

Deutsche Beteiligungs’ (DBAG’s) investment activity in Q125 was limited to one closed private equity (PE) investment (replacing external financing at an existing holding) and one private debt investment, with one add-on in its portfolio and no exits in the period. That said, it expects a significant pick-up in new investments, as well as three or four exits by Q126, despite the recent elevated macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. This suggests that several transactions are at an advanced stage. The higher deal pace should allow DBAG to further diversify its portfolio and deploy part of its dry powder. Its NAV increased by 1.7% in Q125, driven primarily by higher multiples, partly on the back of bids it received for some of its assets.

• Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
• The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
• Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yanlord Land
• On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating to Aa1 (stable) from Aaa (negative). The downgrade reflects the increase in US government debt and interest payment ratios for more than a decade to levels significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns, according to the agency.
• Moody’s does not believe that current fiscal proposals under consideration will lead to material multi-year reductions in spending and deficits.