In today’s briefing:
- T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)
- KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%
- AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Firm Offer As Ho Bee Walks
- Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu Returns To The Well?
- SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines
- AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Binding Proposal at A$0.655
- April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals
- DeFi Technologies Inc. – April 1, 2025
- Emira Property Fund – South Africa’s Middleweight REIT Contender
- Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/CHF March 18, 2025
T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)
- Yesterday, post-close, T&D Holdings (8795 JP) announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
- The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year).
- They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.
KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%
- Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
- The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
- We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.
AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Firm Offer As Ho Bee Walks
- The AVID consortium’s late-November A$0.67/share NBIO appeared a lock; until Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) lobbed a A$0.70/share NBIO in January. Ho Bee also acquired a 5.39% stake.
- AVJennings (AVJ AU) granted both suitors exclusive due diligence, the terms of which expired in February. AVJ said at the time it remained in “active discussions” with both.
- AVJ and AVID have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$0.655/share. A special dividend – included in the Scheme consideration – could add A$0.072/share in franking credits.
Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu Returns To The Well?
- Back on the 27th September 2022, Boyu Group launched a HK$12/share VGO for PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), a 33.04% premium to last close.
- Boyu and concert parties held 53.05%, and the Offer was contingent on regulatory approvals and 7.71% of shares out tendering. 4.79% tendered. Boyu also acquired 7.15% in the market.
- Two days after announcing very ordinary FY24 results, Jinke shares were suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Presumably Boyu is on the acquisition path again. Another VGO or a privatisation?
SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines
- According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed — our sources stated around 5x.
- Self-Storage was Monday’s second best performing sub-sector (+1.8%) as the overall REIT sector (+0.7%) slightly outperformed the broader market.
- While the “typical” IPO investor may not be “enthused”, the timing for this type of deal “may” be ideal for yield-chasers.
AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Binding Proposal at A$0.655
- Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with AVID at A$0.655, 2.2% below its previous A$0.67 offer and a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour.
- Despite the marginally lower price, the offer is attractive, as evidenced by the hefty takeover premium. This is a done deal, with the scheme meeting expected in mid-June.
April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals
- Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.
- In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.
- We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.
DeFi Technologies Inc. – April 1, 2025
- Key 4Q24 takeaways include: 1) key AUM growth drivers likely include targeted expansion efforts, with a focus on market liquidity, regulatory support, and high/growing adoption rates, increasingly developing partnerships with exchanges and other digital assets solutions providers, and leveraging Valour’s broad and deep ETP portfolio to continue to meet evolving investor demand trends
- 2) management remains focused on increasingly penetrating markets across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia to capitalize on strong crypto adoption/demand trends and DEFTF’s first-mover advantages
- 3) product develop/distribution initiatives remain at the forefront, with Valour recently introducing 20 ETPs in Sweden, and bringing new Dogecoin, Hedera, Aptos, Sui, and Render offerings to market
Emira Property Fund – South Africa’s Middleweight REIT Contender
- Emira is a mid-sized South African listed diversified REIT. It has built a portfolio across retail, office, industrial, and residential assets. EMI is also invested in the USA and Poland.
- The company is undervalued at present, trading at 33.85% below Golden Section Capital’s justified value of R16.01 (and 48.35% below the current pro forma NAV of R20.05).
- Outlook is one of steady, incremental growth, supported by a de-risked and diversified asset base. Emira’s diversification into the USA and Poland provides growth, and a buffer against local volatility.
Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/CHF March 18, 2025
- During the period under consideration, i.e. February 14th, 2025 to March 18th, 2025, the EUR/CHF pair posted a bullish trend among fluctuations.
- In the beginning, it followed a marginal decline, until February 28th where the pair faced a sharp increase.
- After that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady upward momentum, and by the end of the period the price traded at a higher level than on February 14th.
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