In today’s briefing:
- Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report
- Eli Lilly’s Obesity Pill For The Masses Could Flip The $150 Billion Market on Its Head!
- Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement – Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook
- Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL): MedTech Targeting the Spine Sets Terms for IPO
- Treasure Chest: CSL Not A One-Trick Pony
- Dong A St (170900 KS): Five Reasons Why Performance Improvement Is Expected
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ’25 Report
- Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
- The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
- Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.
Eli Lilly’s Obesity Pill For The Masses Could Flip The $150 Billion Market on Its Head!
- Eli Lilly has firmly positioned itself at the forefront of the global anti-obesity drug race, fueled by its blockbuster GLP-1-based injectable Zepbound and an upcoming oral pill called orforglipron that could further cement its dominance.
- While rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy enjoyed a first-mover advantage, Lilly’s more effective compound tirzepatide rapidly seized control of the market, capturing 60% share and 75% of new treatment starts.
- Despite facing a setback with CVS’s recent formulary switch favoring Wegovy, Lilly continues to add approximately 500,000 new Zepbound patients each month and is expanding aggressively into international markets including India, China, and Mexico.
Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement – Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook
- Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
- Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
- The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.
Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL): MedTech Targeting the Spine Sets Terms for IPO
- Carlsmed is offering 6.7mm shares at $14.00-$16.00 equating to a market cap of $371m-$424m and is scheduled to debut on July 23rd
- B Capital Group and U.S. Venture Partners have indicated an interest in purchasing up to approximately $20 million and $11 million, respectively.
- MedTech companies like CarlsMed are easy to digest for IPO investors as the company typically sees sales in a strong trajectory going into the IPO.
Treasure Chest: CSL Not A One-Trick Pony
- FNArena’s Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
- Today’s idea is on CSL
Dong A St (170900 KS): Five Reasons Why Performance Improvement Is Expected
- Dong A St (170900 KS) 1Q25 revenue rose 21% YoY, which is a significant improvement as the company recorded just 6% YoY growth in revenue in 2024.
- Existing operation of Dong A St is showing strength. Stelara biosimilar to generate sales royalties from this year. Cenobamate launch is expected by next year.
- Pipeline is promising, with upcoming data readouts expected through 2026. Obesity drug candidate has best-in-class potential.
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