In today’s briefing:
- DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens
- Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN): Getting Ready for the Next Moonshot
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Sambhv Steel Tubes: Backward Integration, Rising Margins,Capacity-Led Growth Steel Pipe Player
DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.
- This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.
- Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.
Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN): Getting Ready for the Next Moonshot
- Natco specializes in complex generics with a catalogue of 30 Para IV filings (14 approved), demonstrating strong R&D expertise and a track record of successful high-value launches most prominently gRevlimid.
- Its current pipeline include potential blockbuster drugs like generic versions of Evrysdi, Ozempic/Wegovy (GLP-1), Kyprolis, and Imbruvica, which could drive future growth and offset concerns about declining Revlimid revenues post-FY26.
- We estimate Natco (ex-Revlimid) can generate ~2,500cr in revenues with profit of 320-350cr. Its 3,500cr cash-in-hand, Para IV optionalities and NCE investments (Gene therapy) make its current valuation attractive.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Delhi Int’l Airport, Longfor Group, Softbank Group, Xiaomi Corp
- US treasury yields continued to decline for a fifth straight day, on the back of a strong auction of 7Y notes, as well as increased market expectations for rate cuts. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 6 bps to 3.72%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 4.24%.
- Equities climbed towards record high levels. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% to 6,141, just shy of the peak of 6,144 in February. The Nasdaq advanced 1.0% to 20,168.
Sambhv Steel Tubes: Backward Integration, Rising Margins,Capacity-Led Growth Steel Pipe Player
- Sambhv’s single-location, fully backward-integrated facility – from sponge iron to pipes—ensures strong cost control and superior EBITDA per ton, outpacing peers reliant on outsourced raw materials and power.
- Capacity ramp-up from 2.5L MT to 4.5L MT in FY25, new stainless-steel lines, and Kesda’s greenfield project set the stage for multi-year growth visibility and operating leverage.
- With ₹390 crore from IPO proceeds going toward debt repayment, Sambhv strengthens financial flexibility, improves credit metrics, and positions itself well for capex execution and margin retention.
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