In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows
- Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak
- The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse
- FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors
- India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges
- Shilpa Medicare: Strong FY25, FDF and Biologics, Focus on Asset Monetisation
- RITES Ltd (NSE: RITES) – Stable Core, Turnkey Drag, Strong Rail Capex Tailwinds
- Dodla Dairy (DODLA) – Multiple Near-Term Triggers Position It for Re-Rating
Quiddity BSE/SENSEX Jun25 Results: 23/26 Correct; ~US$600mn Total One-Way Flows
- The semiannual index rebal events of the SENSEX index, BSE 100 index, and BSE 200 index will take place in June 2025.
- There will be two changes for BSE Sensex, three changes for BSE 100, and eight changes for BSE 200.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.
Reiterate Short Tata Motors – Weak Sales Volume, JLR UK Retails Weak
- We continue to reiterate our short call on Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) based on near term challenges.
- May sales volume is weak versus peers in industry. This weak performance is seen across segments – India passenger cars, commercial vehicles and UK Retail sales
- This insight discusses the whole sale volume in the month of May and compares it with its nearest competitors.
The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse
- CFCL is shifting from a subsidy-driven urea player to a diversified Agri-inputs firm, with strong traction in crop protection, biologicals, and a INR 1,645 Cr TAN project. .
- This diversification reduces exposure to regulatory risks, enhances margins, and positions CFCL for long-term structural growth in high-value Agri-solutions
- With a near debt-free balance sheet and visibility on INR 900–1,000 Cr revenue from TAN, we now view CFCL as a multi-engine growth story beyond commoditized urea.
FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors
- MRF stages recovery in margin in Q4, others suffer
- CEAT breaches US$1.51 billion for the first time in revenue in FY25
- High raw material costs eat into profits of majors
India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges
- Steel prices declined for 5 straight weeks; long products like rebar and wire rod saw the steepest fall amid weak spot market sentiment.
- Companies expect higher Q1 FY26 realizations, but spot trends remain weak, highlighting a lag between optimism and transactional reality.
- Auto and housing demand is softening; only two-wheelers, EVs, and commercial real estate offer near-term support to steel consumption.
Shilpa Medicare: Strong FY25, FDF and Biologics, Focus on Asset Monetisation
- Shilpa’s FY 25 revenue +13 %, EBITDA margin 26 %, EU-GMP clearances, key FDF launches and stronger biologics/CDMO orders mark a decisive operational step-up.
- Growth now rests on differentiated, limited-competition products and biologics CDMO, promising steadier earnings and less reliance on lumpy one-off licensing fees.
- Improved asset utilisation, regulatory wins and visible pipeline recast Shilpa from a cyclical API player into a diversified, higher-margin specialty-biologics growth story.
RITES Ltd (NSE: RITES) – Stable Core, Turnkey Drag, Strong Rail Capex Tailwinds
- RITES reported a ~10% YoY decline in revenue, from Rs2,453 Cr in FY24 to Rs2,218 Cr in FY25, with PAT falling ~16% to Rs424 Cr due to reduced turnkey execution.
- The company is ramping up selective metros, export projects, and EPC work, while maintaining its strong core consultancy business, which makes up roughly 50% of revenue.
- Trading at around 34× P/E, with a ROCE of ~21% and a dividend yield of ~3.8%, RITES remains well-positioned to benefit from India’s sustained rail sector investments.
Dodla Dairy (DODLA) – Multiple Near-Term Triggers Position It for Re-Rating
- Dodla Dairy Ltd, one of India’s leading integrated dairy companies, is on a strong growth trajectory with 3-year revenue CAGR of 18.4% during 2022-2025
- Further, the increasing mix of value-added product (VAP) is leading to improving profitability, and robust free cash flow generation.
- The valuation, at 23.3x FY27 EPS is reasonable in our view with potential upside for re-rating if the management continues to execute on its growth strategy.
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