Daily Brief Japan: Nissan Tokyo Sales, Seven & I Holdings, Recruit Holdings, Rakuten, Zappallas Inc, Dentsu Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Startia Holdings and more

• On 12 March 2025, a minor Twitter account @nanahoshiuk started in January announced a website shiftnissantokyo.com where they point out the value proposition in Nissan Tokyo Sales (8291 JP). 
• The writeup is by a UK company led by a young man with an equity-investing career, some experience at an activist shop, who now runs a “Shareholder Activism Outsourcing Service.”
• The content sounds familiar to my piece in December, has a few unpolished edges, but clearly points out the value proposition. The stock deserves a re-visit. My comments are below.

• On 13 March, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN)’s management held its first press conference in Japan since it disclosed its Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) offer.
• The Couche-Tard charm offensive was designed to pressure the Board to engage and facilitate a definite agreement. The press conference provided incremental new information.
• The Board’s next move will likely provide limited due diligence, partly to avoid a protest vote at the May AGM. However, the prospect of a Board-recommended binding proposal remains low.

• An undisclosed seller is looking to raise around US$520m via selling 0.5% of its stake in Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) .
• We have covered a number of placements in the stock over the past few years, most of which have ended up doing well.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Amazon’s growing lead in Japan’s e-commerce market looks increasingly inexorable. 
• While growth in Japan was slower than some other Amazon markets, it still outpaced Rakuten. LY Corp did better but partly in reaction to poor results the year before. 
• Meanwhile, a recent survey suggests growing interest in brand-operated online stores, particularly to read more in-depth content and use brand-based points.

• Sales in cumulative Q3 decreased by JPY90mn (-2.7% YoY) due to business transfers and service discontinuations.
• Operating profit increased by JPY25mn (+12.5% YoY) despite a JPY6mn decrease in recurring profit due to foreign exchange loss.
• Concourse, Inc. will acquire MTI Ltd.’s divination business, contributing JPY330mn in sales through an absorption-type split.

Dentsu has published its FY24 results, which show a strong Q424 in its Japanese business, ensuring that the group effectively met November’s net revenue guidance despite continuing weakness in international trading. As a result of higher discount rates and shifts in the international risk profile, Dentsu has taken a ¥210.1bn impairment charge, split ¥153.0bn in EMEA and ¥57.1bn in the Americas. The group has also now launched its new mid-term management plan (MTMP), targeting organic revenue growth of 4% in FY27, with operating margins of 16–17% by the plan’s completion. This involves a re-evaluation of the underperforming businesses within the group and laying solid foundations on which to build.

• Following promotion of collaborative engagement, which was demanded by investors, the law will now be amended to allow companies to request disclosure of beneficial shareholders, which was requested by companies.
• This is due to the fact that the company is wary of overseas investors as the cross-shareholding structure begins to crumble and the foreign ownership remains at a high level.
• Under the guise of “to activate engagement,” it is expected that SR activities will become more active in order to address proxy voting.

• Startia Holdings, Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q3 (9M) FY2025/3 results on February 14. On a cumulative nine-month basis, the Company reported net sales of JPY 16,179 mn (+12.2% YoY), operating profit of JPY 1,902 mn (+15.7% YoY), ordinary profit of JPY 1,956 mn (+20.5% YoY), and net profit of JPY 1,405 mn (+35.3% YoY).
• Progress toward the Company’s full-year forecast (revised at the time of its interim results announcement) stood at 75.4%, 72.6%, 74.4%, and 78.1%, respectively.
• As they are tracking close to the 75% mark, the results appear largely in line with the Company’s full-year forecast.