Daily Brief Macro: China Reopening May Cool Global Inflation: Morgan Stanley Report and more

In today’s briefing:

China Reopening May Cool Global Inflation: Morgan Stanley Report

China’s reopening – which could happen as soon as next Spring – is likely to ease global inflation, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
With the country removing strict Covid-19 restrictions, Asia is likely to see a rise in economic performance.
The continent is projected to see a growth in gross domestic product from 3.4% in the first quarter of 2023 to 4.6% in the second half of the year.

At the end of September 2022, Korean stocks accounted for 13.6% of total assets of the NPS whose target for domestic stock exposure is 15.9% by end of this year.
In recent months, NPS has been net increasing purchases of companies including Naver, Celltrion, POSCO Chemical, Samsung Life Insurance, and Krafton.
Although the allowable range for SAA by NPS is ±3%p, there is some leeway for NPS to add to the domestic equities given that they were much lower than target.

As my mentor always said: Alf, rule #1 as an investor is not to be stupid. And trust me, it’s not an easy rule to respect.
As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless: recency bias, being in love with a macro narrative even when invalidated by price action, mis-sizing positions and so on.
But over time I learnt the hard way that as a macro investor respecting 3 main principles is in most cases enough to avoid stupid mistakes.

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