In today’s briefing:
- Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0
- [ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts
- Inflation Peak From Festive Germany
- CX Daily: China Clears More Obstacles for Robotaxis
- HEW: Respite From Hawkish Pressures
- RRII And ATMA Make Rubber Inroads In Northeast
Five Themes for Asia in 2025 : Bracing for Trump 2.0
- We identify five key themes that will shape Asia’s economic outlook this year. The first theme is Trump 2.0, global tariffs and supply chain diversification.
- Trump 2.0 will be a drag on Asia’s growth, even with targeted tariffs. Outside of China, tariff risks are highest for Vietnam, Japan and South Korea.
- Lower inflation will allow central banks to shift their focus to growth and trigger a deeper rate cut cycle, provided FX weakness is within reasonable limits.
[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts
- For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
- US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
- BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.
Inflation Peak From Festive Germany
- The final Euro area inflation print for December confirmed the headline rise to 2.4%, albeit with energy contributing a bit more, offset by even less from food prices.
- Germany drove the rise amid much higher package holiday prices this year. Its median increase also remained too high, almost matching the UK’s above 3% annualised.
- December still looks set to be the peak. Falls in the following two months may not be enough to regain the target as services inflation persists at uncomfortable heights.
CX Daily: China Clears More Obstacles for Robotaxis
- Robotaxis / In Depth: China clears more obstacles for robotaxis
- Xiaohongshu /: TikTok refugees send Xiaohongshu to top of U.S. app store charts
- Smartphones /Chart of the Day: Huawei’s smartphone comeback in China
HEW: Respite From Hawkish Pressures
- Data releases skewed slightly softer this week, with UK inflation and GDP disappointing on statistical effects. US CPI news was marginal, yet the failure to exceed expectations drove dovish moves. Korea and Indonesia surprised by holding and cutting, respectively.
- Next week’s policy focus is the BOJ, where expectations for a hike were raised by recent guidance. The flash PMIs and UK labour market data are our highlights on the economic data calendar.
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RRII And ATMA Make Rubber Inroads In Northeast
- RRII’s new clone RRII 417 to give yield of 2080 kg/ha a year
- INROAD project covers 1,25,272 hectares in four years in NE
- Northeast share of national production to go up to 32%
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