In today’s briefing:
- Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025)
- Actinver Research – Walmex 4Q24: In line with our estimates (Quick View)
- HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves
Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (14 Februray 2025)
- Hong Kong Hang Seng was up over 6% in the past five days as key component stocks rallied due to the Deepseek effect.
- Compared to Chinese stocks, US market was more dormant though S&P was up 1.13%.
- Gold was up 2.09% over worries of heightened US inflation and the prospect of rate cuts.
Actinver Research – Walmex 4Q24: In line with our estimates (Quick View)
- Revenues of P$274.7bn were 8.3% higher YoY, in line with our estimates and consensus, with SSS in Mexico of 4.3% (vs our 4.0% estimates), driven by ticket growth of 4.5%, as traffic declined for another quarter (0.2%).
- In CAM, SSS of 3.1% were again below our estimates and a further deceleration from the 3Q24 figure, with positive ticket and traffic performance of 0.8% and 2.3%, respectively.
- Margins were in line with our estimates starting at the gross margin level.
HEW: Hawkish Canaries and Sick Doves
- Resurgent US inflation and UK GDP growth sicken dovish arguments, even if the turn is exaggerated by residual seasonality in H1. We now see the Fed’s next move as a hike. Uruguay joined Brazil as another hawkish canary by hiking, while BSP didn’t cut.
- It’s the RBA and RBNZ’s turn next week, where cuts are expected, but they are lagging behind the global policy cycle, not leading it. UK inflation, unemployment and wage data will be the highlights for us, along with FOMC minutes and flash PMIs.
- Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to [email protected]).
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