Daily Brief Macro: Introducing: Trumponomics and more

• Donald Trump’s economic policies are changing the way we think about the US economy and shaping the global economy
• The Trumponomics podcast, hosted by Bloomberg’s head of government and economics, discusses Trump’s economic agenda and its implications
• Trump’s policies may be inflationary and there are concerns about what will happen next without any guardrails in place

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• Solar / In Depth: China’s ‘EV battery capital’ turns to solar In the span of four years
• Davos /: Beijing’s influence could end Ukraine war, Finnish President says
• Canal /: Panama starts audit of China-linked port operator amid Trump takeover threat

• UK government spending and deficits have attracted unwelcome attention amid falling sterling and bond prices. Yet long-term rate moves match US and short-rate shifts.
• Sterling weakness defies relative rate moves, suggesting a risk premium worth about 4%. About 1.5pp of that premium is probably US trade policy, with the rest UK-specific.
• Donald Trump should sustain his threats against the EU but could be softer with the UK. Fiscal risk will likely extend beyond the 26 March Budget amid tough talk, not action.

• The Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with expectations, and reiterated its guidance for a potential reduction in March as inflation moderates further.
• Inflation has decelerated faster than anticipated, with headline CPI at 2.2% in December, though core inflation remains above target due to persistent wage growth and high business costs.
• External factors, including rising policy rate expectations among trading partners and potential trade barriers, alongside domestic economic resilience, will influence the timing and magnitude of future rate adjustments.