In today’s briefing:
- Is Trade War or Trade Deal More Likely for US-China Trade Relation
- Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment
Is Trade War or Trade Deal More Likely for US-China Trade Relation
- We see the review of the phase 1 U.S./China trade deal being adverse and President Trump’s carrot and stick approach leading to a 10% rise in tariffs on China imports.
- We eventually see a phase 2 U.S./China trade deal Q4. The main alternative scenario is that China could show goodwill to resolve illegal Fentanyl movements from China to the U.S.
- Coupled with the Tik Tok sale, This can lead to spring hopes that a phase 2 U.S./China trade deal can be reached and a more full-scale trade will be avoided.
Overview #14 – The Emperor Has No Clothes Moment
- A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
- The narrative change around US tech spending on AI has potentially positive implications for Chinese technology shares
- India sets the stage for interest rate cuts and the budget cuts taxes for the middle classes to boost consumption
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
