Daily Brief Macro: Japanese Auto and more

• Japanese tire firms mull option of broadening production base in US  
• May explore low-cost Southeast Asian destinations too  
• Diversifying supply-chain network to be on top of agenda  

• On 11 February, the Korea Exchange announced eight major incentives for selected excellent Corporate Value Up companies every May starting this year.
• Some of the major incentives include preferential tax treatment and preferential inclusion in the Korea Value Up index. 
• The Korea Exchange plans to select and announce 10 companies that will be included as Excellent Value Up Companies for the first time in May 2025.

• WTI futures fell by 2.1% for the week ending 07/Feb on the back of uncertain trade policy, growing U.S. crude stockpiles, and a strengthening dollar.
• WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.18 from 1.31 (31/Jan) last week, as call volume fell by 51% WoW while put volume dropped by 56.1%.  
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.98 from 1.00 last week. Call OI rose by 5.2% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.5%.

• For the week ending 07/Feb, U.S. natural gas prices gained 8.7% on the back of colder weather forecasts, rising LNG exports, and falling inventories.
• Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio decreased to 1.33 from 1.50 (31/Jan) the previous week as call volumes fell by 26.7% WoW, while put volumes declined by 35%. 
• Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.97 from 0.96 from last week. Call OI rose by 5.6% WoW, while put OI increased by 7.2%.

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• The early days of the Trump administration has seen lots of volatility around the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, but the more stable U.S. Treasury market helps provide an anchor. 
• U.S. Treasuries have shift towards the view that the 10yr budget bill will be delayed until H2 and likely be only modestly stimulative in 2026. 
• Combined with the Fed still leaving the door open to rate cuts this has helped avoid major directional movements. 

• The U.S. oil and gas rig count rose for the second straight week, increasing by 4 to 586 for the week ending 07/Feb.
• For the week ending 31/Jan, U.S. oil production rose to 13.48m bpd from 13.24m bpd the week prior.
• The number of active oil rigs rose by 1 to 480 and gas rigs grew by 2 to 100. The number of rigs in Permian basin remained unchanged at 303.

• Central banks provide vague and evolving estimates of neutral rates that are unreliable guides to policy decisions, although these estimates inform the perceived terminal rate.
• Resilient labour markets and persistent unit labour cost growth challenge the dovish view that policy rates are well above their neutral settings, urging caution.
• Neutral estimates gradually drift to explain the prevailing regime, which doesn’t prevent a pause in cuts or a return to rate hikes consistent with historical norms.

• The podcast is called New Barbarians and focuses on digital assets and opportunities in the market
• The special guest, Connor Farley, is the CEO and co-founder of Truvias, an SEC registered investment advisor specializing in digital asset portfolio management
• The current market trends include rising inflation concerns, increasing interest in gold, and the potential for Bitcoin to act as digital gold, according to the hosts and guest.

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