Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | Asian Market Technicals and more

In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Thomas Schroeder as he will be sharing with us his insights into the Asian Market from a technical perspective and analysis. From the current trends in the market, to what’s coming next, join us in this installment as we hear more from Thomas.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 22 March 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Thomas Schroeder started using charts and trading in the FX markets in 1989 and entered the equities arena in 1992 with Deutsche Bank as a fundamental analyst, but found himself relying more on inter-market cycles and charts. In 1994, he became the Asian head of Technical Research for UBS Securities in Hong Kong and in 1997 he was charged with heading the Global Technical Research team for SG Securities. In July of 2003, Chart Partners Group Limited was formed, providing clients with timely and accurate progressive trading strategies in a truly global context.

• The Fed will hike by 25bps to try and regain control of the narrative
• The banking crisis is probably the final nail in the coffin for the otherwise germinating economic rebound
• 200 bps worth of cuts to arrive before 2024 as disinflation and banking turmoil will affect Fed’s decision making

• Monday market dynamics suggest more liquidity is needed to limit contagion risks.
• 5% is the magic level at which things start to break. The Fed needs time to make things whole again before resuming rate hikes.
• Recent events will profoundly impact consumer and business confidence and increase the odds of a recession. Just watch oil!

• The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
• The past week saw insights on Berli Jucker in Thailand, as a beneficiary of tourism recovery plus on Supermax Corp, Halcyon Agri, and PT Trimegah Bangun Persada (Harita Nickel).
• There was also a macro insight on the Philippines, with exposure falling to record lows for active PMs, and a sector piece on S-REITS in light of rising interest rates.

• The Saudi-Iran deal brokered by Beijing is part of China’s strategy to reverse setbacks in its global strategic position inflicted by its prior self-isolation and foreign policy missteps.
• Beijing will look to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict for its next diplomatic win. A decisive peace deal is unlikely, but a smaller deal such as on grain shipping is possible.
• A recalibration of the Belt and Road Initiative and a softening of Beijing’s stance towards debt relief are also on the cards.

• Regional integration continues its slow but steady pace in Asia across various dimensions including flows of trade, investments, and labour, as well as institutional frameworks.  
• Further integration is expected to benefit from global trends such as the prevalence of trade agreements, the prominence of economic clusters, and improved connectivity.
• As the global economy faces the risk of fragmentation, stronger degrees of integration fortify Asian economies’ resilience if the risks are appropriately managed by policy.  

• The EUR/USD exchange rate has been moving upwards, as seen in Graph 1.
• There were four secondary movements throughout the considered time period.
• More specifically, after fluctuating the first days of the month, the currency pair showed an upward movement from January 6th up to January 12th.