Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | Money Growth Leads to Inflation and more

In the next installment of our Webinar Wednesdays, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Andreas Steno as he gives us a detailed tour around forward looking inflation indicators for all major economies.

From touchpoints like how money growth is outright negative in the West, to trends being opposite in China/Japan, join us as we dive deeper into the topic with Andreas and Smartkarma’s Co-founder, Raghav Kapoor.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 5 April 2023, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Andreas Steno is the founder and Head of Research of the European Power Research house “Steno Research.” Building on years of experience as Global Chief Strategist at Nordea Bank, he is one of the most quoted and sought-after macro analysts out there. Andreas’ expertise is the macro strategy, energy, real estate and equity spaces, but doesn’t shy away from hot takes on other topics if the underlying analysis is strong enough. Andreas anchors the weekly editorial ‘Steno Signals’ and other watch series from Steno Research.

• The BoE hiked by 25bps in Mar-23, with only two dovish dissenters, in line with our forecast yet contrary to many excessively dovish cautious calls.
• Underlying inflationary pressures are excessively high, especially in our forecast, and reinforced by recent data. Second-round effects demand frontloaded tightening.
• We maintain our call for another 25bp rate hike in May. Markets underappreciate the likelihood of that but should progressively price it in again, as with Feb and Mar hikes.

• Laeven and Valencia (2012, 2018, 2020) provide an empirically sound framework to determine if a banking crisis should be defined systemic.
• The first condition of a systemic banking crisis – significant signs of financial distress in the banking system – has been met.
• The second condition of a systemic banking crisis – significant banking policy intervention – has not been met, including the impressive intervention of the SNB in the Swiss banking system.

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