Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: The Chinese Subscription Plan and more

In today’s briefing:

  • The Chinese Subscription Plan
  • Money Watch: Is the BTFP Just Another Form of QE?
  • UK: Sales Break Volume Trend in Feb-23
  • TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Firebreak

The Chinese Subscription Plan

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • As Xi meets Putin – what is the Chinese endgame?
  • What are they hoping to gain from supporting Russia in the war?
  • And how is this connected to your Tesla? To understand that, we must understand the Chinese subscription model!

Money Watch: Is the BTFP Just Another Form of QE?

By Andreas Steno

  • BTFP is a credit facility which enables bondholders to use their bond as collateral valued at par in turn for a loan.
  • The BTFP is hence an extremely generous version of the goold old discount window and not outright QE.
  • Both tools affect the market much the same way. Read below for a full detailed account 

UK: Sales Break Volume Trend in Feb-23

By Phil Rush

  • UK retail sales accelerated in Feb-23 from an upwardly revised base, breaking clear of the downward trend in volumes that has prevailed for almost two years.
  • Slower goods inflation means less erosion of spending value’s stable growth. Trends in value growth and real wages now appear consistent with relatively flat volumes.
  • Further resilience in activity partly reflects bumper pay deals. Neither indicates that economic excesses are breaking, so we still expect another BoE rate hike in May.

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Firebreak

By TPW Advisory

  • The plate throwing, table tossing, cross asset market action continues to pingpong across the Atlantic as US /EU bank fears continue to burn like wildfires, leading to sharp falls in rates that coupled with weakness in energy prices signal markets are prepping for recession.
  • The fear used to be that the Fed would overtighten and force the US economy into recession in order to get inflation down to its 2% target.
  • As we wrote in last week’s Musings  we think that battle has been fought and won by the forces arguing for a higher target, though we note BofA’s FMS suggests that 65% of those polled disagree with us – only 65%?

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