In today’s briefing:
- The Great Game: What to Make of the Iran-Saudi Deal and Ukraine Holding on to Bakhmut
- CX Daily: Regulators Tighten Grip on China’s $2.9 Trillion Private Fund Industry
- Weekly Market Monitor (10) – Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks
- EA: HICP Resilience Confirmed in Feb-23
- TPW Advisory Friday Musings: March – In Like A Lion, Out Like A Lamb?
The Great Game: What to Make of the Iran-Saudi Deal and Ukraine Holding on to Bakhmut
- Iran and Saudi Arabia are buddying up with the help of China
- Ukrainian is incredibly holding out while Bakhmut is being surrounded
- What to make of all this? Read your weekly geopolitical overview
CX Daily: Regulators Tighten Grip on China’s $2.9 Trillion Private Fund Industry
Funds / Regulators tighten grip on China’s $2.9 trillion private fund industry
Fugitive / Fugitive billionaire Guo Wengui arrested in New York
Yuan / HKEX applies to launch yuan counter for Hong Kong-listed shares
Weekly Market Monitor (10) – Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks
- A concise overview of the latest developments in the unfolding banking crisis and the surprise central bank intervention following them.
- Three key reasons equities markets did not collapse: 1) LIQUIDITY, 2) ECB, 3) The Outlier Narrative.
- Other Macro data not to be overlooked and our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index moved away(!) from Fear this week.
EA: HICP Resilience Confirmed in Feb-23
- The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed a slight slowing to 8.5% in Feb-23. The ex-tobacco rate hit 8.61%, only 2bps above our forecast amid marginal news in the details.
- Resilience was also confirmed in the core measures, which do not appear to be converging towards target-consistent rates. Excesses haven’t broken yet.
- March may undershoot the consensus amid less seasonal space to rebound from January, but we see inflation trending above the ECB’s forecast, encouraging more rate hikes.
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: March – In Like A Lion, Out Like A Lamb?
- Recent market action is just like the weather outside, which brings to mind the old proverb in the title.
- Research indicates the origin of the proverb goes back to astronomy and how Leo, the Lion constellation, rises in the East early this month while Aries, the Lamb constellation, sets in the West towards the end of the month.
- It was adapted for agricultural purposes to describe March’s transitional weather back in the 1700s with the first noted reference in 1732, almost 300 years ago.
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