In today’s briefing:
- The Second Leg Down In This Bear Market May Be Happening Now?
- A Pending Major Market Bottom? It Sounds Too Easy!
- A Flock of Hawks Circle Wall Street
- China A-Share Deep Dive: Growth Slows, but EM Funds Remain Well Invested
- The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – PropertyGuru Lock-Ups, Moya Holdings Delisting, and TISCO.
The Second Leg Down In This Bear Market May Be Happening Now?
- S&P500 (SPX) likely to test 3200, may be even 3000, as earnings get crushed. It looks like a classic ‘second leg-down’ in the bear market
- Tight Central Bank Liquidity has hit sensitive bond markets driving yields higher, but also causing term premia to worryingly collapse to near all-time lows
- Term premia fall is already set-in-stone and historically has led to much weaker reported corporate earnings some 15 months later. Hence US S&P500 earnings could skid by 20% in 2023
A Pending Major Market Bottom? It Sounds Too Easy!
- Is the universe unfolding as it should? Most technical and sentiment indicators argue for a near-term double bottom in the S&P 500.
- The new bull narrative sounds far too easy. Macro and fundamental factors argue for further downside potential.
- Most of the growth concerns and opportunities are outside the U.S., while large-cap U.S. equity valuations are elevated because of their perceived safe-haven status.
A Flock of Hawks Circle Wall Street
- It’s difficult to make definitive calls on market direction ahead of a FOMC meeting.
- Price momentum is negative in the wake of the hot CPI report and we would expect it to continue into the date of the meeting.
- Investors need to be prepared for a possible reversal should sentiment and positioning become excessively bearish and hawkish.
China A-Share Deep Dive: Growth Slows, but EM Funds Remain Well Invested
- The growth in China A-Share exposure has slowed as we approach full ownership across the EM active fund universe.
- China A-Share allocations have remained solid throughout this year’s volatility and heavy country rotation.
- Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai and Contemporary Amperex Technology remain the most widely held stocks, but others are starting to make their mark.
The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – PropertyGuru Lock-Ups, Moya Holdings Delisting, and TISCO.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on PropertyGuru (PGRU US), Moya Holdings Asia (MHAL SP), and Singapore Medical (SMG SP), as well as Tisco Financial, and Minor International.
- There was also macro commentary on the Philippines plus we look at Ace Hardware Indonesia at a 5-year low, and BFI Finance Indonesia post strong results.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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