In today’s briefing:
- Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)
- Trump 2025 Market = Reagan 1981?
- What A Changing of the Guard Means for Stocks
- Copper Tracker 20th Jan 2025: Encouraging China TSF Numbers To Boost Future Demand?
- Iron Ore Tracker (20-Jan-2025): Temporary Closure of Hedland and Dampier to Boost Prices
Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly (Starting 20 January 2025)
- We are starting a new series of insights called “Top 10 Korean Stock Picks Bi-Weekly.”
- The main purpose of these insights is to pick top 10 stocks in Korea that could outperform KOSPI in the following two week period.
- The top 10 stock picks include Kia Corp, Kangwon Land, OCI Holdings, HD Hyundai, Doosan Bobcat, BNK Financial, Hyundai Mobis, HMM, Hyundai Glovis, and Korean Reinsurance.
Trump 2025 Market = Reagan 1981?
- History doesn’t repeat itself but rhymes. The current market pattern is eerily similar to the 1980–1981 period when Ronald Reagan first won when the market made an intermediate-term top.
- Reagan entered the White House amidst a wave of partisan enthusiasm but the stock market ran into technical and economic headwinds.
- In 1980, the market faced the challenge of a highly hawkish Federal Reserve. In 2025, the market faces the challenge of elevated valuation and expectations.
What A Changing of the Guard Means for Stocks
- Much of the gains from the relief rally that we called for are likely in the rear-view mirror.
- The lack of extreme fear during this latest oversold episode makes us question the longevity of the rally.
- In light of the uncertainties posed by the changing of the political guard in the U.S., the prudent course of action is to step aside and wait for greater clarity.
Copper Tracker 20th Jan 2025: Encouraging China TSF Numbers To Boost Future Demand?
- Copper prices finished up over 9000 USD/ton again this week after hovering around 3-5% of that level for close to a month.
- The COMEX spread has reached a 10-week high, while the Yangshan premium shows signs of investor bullishness as it closes in on the 80 USD/ton.
- With better TSF numbers from China and a slightly more optimistic picture of demand, we head into 2025 feeling better about copper pricing.
Iron Ore Tracker (20-Jan-2025): Temporary Closure of Hedland and Dampier to Boost Prices
- Iron ore bounced back 7.7% last week to finish at 104 USD/ton. The short-term bullishness was due to temporary port closures for Hedland and Dampier due to cyclone warnings.
- China TSF exceeded expectations for December, coming in at 2.85 trillion RMB, up 47% year over year (compared to street expectations of 2.15 trillion RMB).
- We like the small-cap Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read our research Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, >35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up.
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